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Covid 19 virus

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not1xor1:

--- Quote from: Cerebus on March 22, 2020, 11:22:56 pm ---
--- Quote from: not1xor1 on March 22, 2020, 10:43:00 pm ---
--- Quote from: imo on March 22, 2020, 07:44:44 pm ---No special antibiotics to cope with secondary infections at that time.

--- End quote ---

I'd rather say little problem with antibiotic resistant bacteria

--- End quote ---

As is often the way with these things those in know were making quite a lot of fuss about it back then. MRSA had been identified as a problem in the sixties and by around 1980 knowledge of increasing multi-drug resistance in bacteria was a commonplace among the scientific and medical community.
[...]

--- End quote ---

I agree with you, but they were not as wide spread and causing as many problems and deaths as they do now... and worldwide

BTW antibiotics are a natural product, they are the weapons used by various species of microorganisms to fight each other so antibiotic resistant bacteria have been found even in old samples taken before penicillin had been ever used

thinkfat:

--- Quote from: drussell on March 23, 2020, 02:08:47 am ---
--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 22, 2020, 06:38:45 pm ---drussel, where do you get your numbers from? CDC doesn't report on weekends, and WHO's data is from Friday the 20th. And both of those agree on a figure of 15k.

I think it's important to choose a single and arguably reliable source rather than grabbing data from whatever pops up. I may be wrong, but in the US I would assume the final authority is the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), and I assume they forward that to WHO as official data, which is why WHO data seems to lag 1 day behind.
--- End quote ---

I have been getting my latest-case data from what is generally considered the most authoritative worldwide source, the CSSE aggregation page at Johns Hopkins University....

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

You can download their daily aggregate data in .CSV format via their github page:
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

I will admit right now that I was incorrect in my previous post on the number of new US cases that have been logged so far today.  I had inadvertently added the last two rows from New York and New Jersey twice (which I assume were essentially the results from yesterday's tests,) so my numbers were skewed up 4500+ cases....

The number added today in the US is "only" more like 9000 new cases, not the 13-something thousand that I thought it was when I quickly saw the inaccurate totals at the bottom of my spreadsheet when I hastily posted that comment before running out the door to one remaining jobsite, without actually fully importing the latest datasets...

Sorry...  My bad...

My working number now stands at 33,276 confirmed infected in the USA.

I'm sure the CDC will update their official numbers to reflect these latest state-by-state disclosures at some point in the next 24-72 hours or so.

--- End quote ---

I'm pretty sure reality will catch up with your predictions in no time. As long as we're in exponential growth, any number will serve as a prediction if it is high enough. It might just be a day or two off.

mzzj:
What's the deal with Germany?
Plenty of cases, few deaths and hardly anyone in intensive care?
Or German authorities don't report people in intensive care because of privacy laws or sumthing?
(bit similar in here, they don't publish every detail including past sexual history of the coronavirus fatalities...)

Ranayna:
To be honest, I do not follow the numbers, except for what I glimpse in the newspaper and occasionally on the radio. So I cannot comment on those, except that the effects are currently still quite low in my area. We have cases, but not many. The confirmed cases I saw in the paper on Saturday (so likely numbers from Friday) where in the single or low double digits for each district.
Despite going shopping roughly every two days, I have not yet seen any essentials out of stock in the supermarkets. Low stocks, yes, but not fully out.
I am living in a semi-rural area in the north-west of Germany.

Anyway, since yesterday, Germany has enacted what I would translate to "Movement Limitations".

- All non-essential customer facing businesses must close. Exceptions are: Supermarkets, Pharmacies, Doctors. Restaurants can only offer takeout or delivery. This is new, since before yesterday some businesses like barbers, "beauty shops", and similar, where still allowed to open.
- No more than two people may meet on public property. Exclusions only for families or people living in the same household.
- A mandatory distance of 1.5 meters to other people, where possible, has to be kept.

Stuff already in place for longer:
- All public events are cancelled
- Private events are either "strongly discouraged" or also prohibited, I'm not sure in that regard
- Schools are closed until at least Easter
- A generic travel advisory has been declared.

Discussions of fully tracking every citizen via their mobile phones have been shelved, for now at least.

not1xor1:

--- Quote from: mzzj on March 23, 2020, 07:24:43 am ---What's the deal with Germany?
Plenty of cases, few deaths and hardly anyone in intensive care?
Or German authorities don't report people in intensive care because of privacy laws or sumthing?
(bit similar in here, they don't publish every detail including past sexual history of the coronavirus fatalities...)

--- End quote ---

Korea got a low mortality rate because most of infected people were young women (one of the lowest risk group)
Germany deaths figures are suspect. Let's hope they are real.
Other countries are obviously cheating (Russia, Iran). I'm afraid for poor nations that have even much less resources.

I think in 12 hours we'll see (just first 3 countries after China):
country   cases     deaths
Italy       67-68k   6.3-6.4k
US         42-48k   500-550
Spain     31-34k   2.1-2.5k
of course I strongly hope to be wrong (i.e. that real figures will be much lower)

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