General > General Technical Chat
Covid 19 virus
drussell:
--- Quote from: imo on March 23, 2020, 12:10:57 pm ---Deaths per country - that could be tricky to report, see below countries with >1000 confirmed and <0.5% (an quick example only)..
--- End quote ---
Sure, those numbers show:
Germany, Austria, Israel, Czechia, Norway deaths at [ 111, 16, 1, 1, 8 ]
but they also only show:
Germany, Austria, Israel, Czechia, Norway recovered at [ 422, 9, 37, 6, 6 ]
It takes at least two to three weeks on average for a case to reach an outcome. You cannot just look at the total cases and assume that none of those people are going to die. Those places where you say the number of deaths are low are just still early enough on the curve that they haven't started getting many known outcomes yet, good or bad.
You can't make an accurate calculation of the CFR that early in an outbreak. You need outcomes.
iMo:
--- Quote from: imo on March 19, 2020, 09:42:45 pm ---Based on the Diamond Princess cruise ship case (19% infected while people lived in rather suboptimal epidemiological conditions) let us be a little bit optimistic and estimate 8-15% of population infected in EU states (depends on the actual countermeasures applied by a particular country as well as the commitment of their citizens).
:phew:
--- End quote ---
Based on the current Germany data (and Diamond Princess 19% infected), with the infected 8% in Germany you get similar number fatalities as with the Germany's flu in 2017/2018 (25000 Report).
Fatalities DE: 82.8mil*8%*0.42%= 27820
aseok:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Zero999:
--- Quote from: imo on March 23, 2020, 01:14:38 pm ---
--- Quote from: imo on March 19, 2020, 09:42:45 pm ---Based on the Diamond Princess cruise ship case (19% infected while people lived in rather suboptimal epidemiological conditions) let us be a little bit optimistic and estimate 8-15% of population infected in EU states (depends on the actual countermeasures applied by a particular country as well as the commitment of their citizens).
:phew:
--- End quote ---
Based on the current Germany data (and Diamond Princess 19% infected), with the infected 8% in Germany you get similar number fatalities as with the Germany's flu in 2017/2018 (25000 Report).
Fatalities DE: 82.8mil*8%*0.42%= 27820
--- End quote ---
The problem with this virus is the speed at which it spreads, so heath care systems can't cope.
thinkfat:
--- Quote from: imo on March 23, 2020, 01:14:38 pm ---
--- Quote from: imo on March 19, 2020, 09:42:45 pm ---Based on the Diamond Princess cruise ship case (19% infected while people lived in rather suboptimal epidemiological conditions) let us be a little bit optimistic and estimate 8-15% of population infected in EU states (depends on the actual countermeasures applied by a particular country as well as the commitment of their citizens).
:phew:
--- End quote ---
Based on the current Germany data (and Diamond Princess 19% infected), with the infected 8% in Germany you get similar number fatalities as with the Germany's flu in 2017/2018 (25000 Report).
Fatalities DE: 82.8mil*8%*0.42%= 27820
--- End quote ---
I wouldn't derive anything from German numbers yet. Too few cases with outcome and the most vulnerable tend to die first and quickly, but there have to be many more cases in critical condition (which are not being reported as such, as far as I can say).
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