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Covid 19 virus
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SilverSolder:

--- Quote from: not1xor1 on March 23, 2020, 08:54:16 pm ---
--- Quote from: not1xor1 on March 23, 2020, 09:41:47 am ---I think in 12 hours we'll see (just first 3 countries after China):
country   cases     deaths
Italy       67-68k   6.3-6.4k
US         42-48k   500-550
Spain     31-34k   2.1-2.5k
of course I strongly hope to be wrong (i.e. that real figures will be much lower)

--- End quote ---

I was not much wrong (apart Italy - let's hope it is a trend rather than just ordinary fluctuations)
current (12 hours after forecast) figures are:
country   cases                deaths
Italy       64k (63,927)       6.1k (6,077)
US         42k (41,708)       573
Spain     33k (33,089)       2.2k (2,207)

I hope my weekly forecast about US will be wrong (of course I hope less cases and deaths than what I wrote)

--- End quote ---

The US looks to me like it is accelerating, rather than flattening out...
chris_leyson:
UK goes into shutdown from tonight. ALL non essential shops will close except for food, pharmacies, banks and post offices. Gatherings of more than two people are prohibited. Travel for food or medicinal supplies is permitted as well as travel for essential work. Essential work, apart from the obvious, is not yet defined.
dietert1:
Dr. Drosten also mentioned that there may be a very simple explanation why some infected persons almost don't notice and other suffocate.
When the virus enters the body it needs time to spread and during that time the human body starts reacting, but it also needs time to produce virus killing antibodies.
So they assume that the immune response may be effective when the initial infection enters nose or mouth. If the initial infection happens inside the lungs (after taking a deep breath of virus aerosol), that person may be lost. Today on German TV they showed a 41 year old strong man who had been skiiing in Austria and is now close to death. My conclusion: Keep your mouth shut when others are close. A mask will have a similar effect.

In Germany about 1 of 1000 is infected, assuming a moderate factor two or three above the official numbers of those tested positive. So, when you meet 10 people chances are 1 : 100 that you are at risk. This risk is integrated over the next months and over all members of a family. So we should think a lot before meeting somebody else.

Regards, Dieter
thinkfat:

--- Quote from: dietert1 on March 23, 2020, 09:10:45 pm ---Dr. Drosten also mentioned that there may be a very simple explanation why some infected persons almost don't notice and other suffocate.
When the virus enters the body it needs time to spread and during that time the human body starts reacting, but it also needs time to produce virus killing antibodies.
So they assume that the immune response may be effective when the initial infection enters nose or mouth. If the initial infection happens inside the lungs (after taking a deep breath of virus aerosol), that person may be lost. Today on German TV they showed a 41 year old strong man who had been skiiing in Austria and is now close to death. My conclusion: Keep your mouth shut when others are close. A mask will have a similar effect.

In Germany about 1 of 1000 is infected, assuming a moderate factor two or three above the official numbers of those tested positive. So, when you meet 10 people chances are 1 : 100 that you are at risk. This risk is integrated over the next months and over all members of a family. So we should think a lot before meeting somebody else.

Regards, Dieter

--- End quote ---

I've just finished listening to that episode. This must have escaped my attention.
SiliconWizard:

--- Quote from: dietert1 on March 23, 2020, 09:10:45 pm ---My conclusion: Keep your mouth shut when others are close. A mask will have a similar effect.

--- End quote ---

Yeah, the nose is a good barrier (at least much better) compared to directly breathing through the mouth. Some people have more of a habit of breathing through the mouth at least partly, usually not consciously.

Of course, if someone's already got a cold with a clogged nose, they will tend to breath through the mouth almost exclusively, which I guess would put them even more at risk.

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