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Covid 19 virus
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not1xor1:

--- Quote from: SilverSolder on March 23, 2020, 08:58:20 pm ---The US looks to me like it is accelerating, rather than flattening out...

--- End quote ---

yes, it is flattening just in Italy as first quarantine measures have been taken weeks ago

it does take time for those measure to show any result and yet we can't be sure they are working yet (even if new cases figures as percentage of previous total amount have been displaying a constant lowering trend)
let's hope for the best

unfortunately other countries have not learnt from mistakes in Italy and acted slowly so they shall have to wait a bit longer to see any improvement
paulca:

--- Quote from: Mr. Scram on March 23, 2020, 09:20:22 pm ---
--- Quote from: not1xor1 on March 23, 2020, 06:10:31 pm ---I read that in Germany youngsters organize so-called corona-party and cough on elders... is that true or yet another exaggeration?

--- End quote ---
Quite possibly both. It can be true yet so rare that it for all intents and purposes doesn't happen.

--- End quote ---

Seen two reports locally of groups of kids shouting at police (fairly normal), but coughing on each other and claiming they all have the virus and for the police to stay away.

Also reports in England of groups of lads coughing on an old couple.  They were tackled and beaten by members of the public which resulted in injuries all round including to the old people.

https://www.belfastlive.co.uk/news/belfast-news/coronavirus-northern-ireland-psni-hit-17963522
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-52003543

When they shut the schools, this happened across the country.
https://www.irishnews.com/coronavirus/2020/03/21/news/coronavirus-end-of-school-parties-held-despite-impending-catastrophe--1874331/

As someone said.  Let us just remember who they were.  When this is over we can deal with them appropriately.  Personally I think being hung up by the arms in the town squares for all to see.
mzzj:
Lets assume they manage to miraculously "regulate" the infection rate to level that the intensive care can cope with:
US has currently 45000 intensive care beds, maybe 30000 available for coronavirus cases with some extra capacity built and "loaned" from anesthetic units. Recovery in ICU takes maybe 1-2 weeks, lets assume 10 days. 11 million patients treated in ICU per year at maximum capacity.
IF coronavirus spreads equally to all age groups maybe 5% of infected need intensive care. 300 million population, 70% total infected, 11,5 million patients to ICU, -->need to delay this thing to 12 month misery.

Lots of unknown multiplied with each other but I think they need to come up with better strategy.
hamster_nz:

--- Quote from: mzzj on March 24, 2020, 08:27:33 am ---Lets assume they manage to miraculously "regulate" the infection rate to level that the intensive care can cope with:
US has currently 45000 intensive care beds, maybe 30000 available for coronavirus cases with some extra capacity built and "loaned" from anesthetic units. Recovery in ICU takes maybe 1-2 weeks, lets assume 10 days. 11 million patients treated in ICU per year at maximum capacity.
IF coronavirus spreads equally to all age groups maybe 5% of infected need intensive care. 300 million population, 70% total infected, 11,5 million patients to ICU, -->need to delay this thing to 12 month misery.

Lots of unknown multiplied with each other but I think they need to come up with better strategy.

--- End quote ---

I think you dropped a digit. At a 10 day stay, each bed can do 36 cases per year. Capacity is 30,000 * 36 = 1,080,000 cases requiring ICU care per year.

Or look at it another way, with 30,000 beds, and the average stay is 10 days, then peak load is 30,000/10 = 3,000 new cases requiring ICU per day. As a check that gives 3000 * 365 = 1,095,000 ICU cases per year.

So for 11M ICU cases, you need about a decade.

mzzj:

--- Quote from: hamster_nz on March 24, 2020, 08:59:26 am ---
--- Quote from: mzzj on March 24, 2020, 08:27:33 am ---Lets assume they manage to miraculously "regulate" the infection rate to level that the intensive care can cope with:
US has currently 45000 intensive care beds, maybe 30000 available for coronavirus cases with some extra capacity built and "loaned" from anesthetic units. Recovery in ICU takes maybe 1-2 weeks, lets assume 10 days. 11 million patients treated in ICU per year at maximum capacity.
IF coronavirus spreads equally to all age groups maybe 5% of infected need intensive care. 300 million population, 70% total infected, 11,5 million patients to ICU, -->need to delay this thing to 12 month misery.

Lots of unknown multiplied with each other but I think they need to come up with better strategy.

--- End quote ---

I think you dropped a digit. At a 10 day stay, each bed can do 36 cases per year. Capacity is 30,000 * 36 = 1,080,000 cases requiring ICU care per year.

Or look at it another way, with 30,000 beds, and the average stay is 10 days, then peak load is 30,000/10 = 3,000 new cases requiring ICU per day. As a check that gives 3000 * 365 = 1,095,000 ICU cases per year.

So for 11M ICU cases, you need about a decade.


--- End quote ---
Damn, you are right, I lost a zero somewhere.

Makes it just more unrealistic scenario even if my ballpark numbers would be way off.
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