Author Topic: Covid 19 virus  (Read 66671 times)

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Offline thinkfat

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #125 on: March 07, 2020, 06:39:01 pm »
I expect to see acceleration in China in the next few days while people start migrating again.
 

Offline james_s

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #126 on: March 08, 2020, 04:13:50 am »
That will probably happen here too. Give it a few weeks and the news media will find some new shiny thing to focus on, people will get tired of being cooped up at home and slide back toward complacency. The status quo is not sustainable at all, though I'm really enjoying the much lighter traffic.
 

Offline Simon

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #127 on: March 08, 2020, 12:22:08 pm »
I am just wondering about all of the inconvenient stuff that is being put out at a time when all we are looking at is the numbers of covid-19
 

Offline ebastler

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #128 on: March 08, 2020, 12:36:28 pm »
I am just wondering about all of the inconvenient stuff that is being put out at a time when all we are looking at is the numbers of covid-19

Not sure I get your point. We are observing an exponential growth of confirmed infections in many countries (e.g. doubling every 2 days in Germany and UK). If we let that trend continue unmitigated, hospitals would soon be unable to cope with even a small percentage of severe cases. Isn't that a plausible cause to instigate measures to try and slow down the spread?
 

Offline Simon

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #129 on: March 08, 2020, 12:55:15 pm »
While the worlds media feeds on the covid-19 story it's a good time for governments to make unpopular announcements as they won't get as much coverage. The media is mare worried about filling it's air time and less worried about what it fills it with.
 

Online EEVblog

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #130 on: March 08, 2020, 01:04:28 pm »
While the worlds media feeds on the covid-19 story it's a good time for governments to make unpopular announcements as they won't get as much coverage. The media is mare worried about filling it's air time and less worried about what it fills it with.

Here in Australia the government is making a huge to-do about it and press conferencing every chance they get. They are trying to make up for the lack of s!#t given when the fires happened. Our PM was famously overseas on holidays and didn't seem to care and he copped a hiding for it in the media. His advisers are now no doubt telling him to milk the crap out of this crisis to win back Joe Public.
 

Online Cerebus

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #131 on: March 08, 2020, 01:40:36 pm »
I am just wondering about all of the inconvenient stuff that is being put out at a time when all we are looking at is the numbers of covid-19

What, the old "This is good day to publish bad news" schtick?

If you're bored and want a good cynical laugh, compare the kind of press releases that any government department puts out at 09:00 on a Monday versus the ones they publish at 17:01 on a Friday.
Anybody got a syringe I can use to squeeze the magic smoke back into this?
 

Offline Simon

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #132 on: March 08, 2020, 09:28:25 pm »
seen it locally where they decide to run a consultation process about some unimportant matter like splitting the county in two or privatizing the counties services or closing the local library. Funny that these things always come around in December. i can't possibly think why.....
 

Offline DrG

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #133 on: March 08, 2020, 11:16:41 pm »
I don't know about the media subterfuge angle or even the panic angle.

In the US, what has me very concerned is the lack of pressure by the news media to address (by address, I mean raise the public's awareness and anger) a horrendous lack of availability of testing kits. In fact, there is argument on whether or not there is a shortage of test kits https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/486416-azar-contradicts-pence-says-theres-no-coronavirus-testing-kit-shortage  - If so, have tests been conducted in all at-risk populations (like senior homes)?  Where are the priorities for testing?- Who is in charge around here?! That is the kind of response that I would like to hear but it has not been a news item - right now there are some grumblings - e.g., https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/united-states-badly-bungled-coronavirus-testing-things-may-soon-improve .

Drive through testing has only now begun in Seattle. But how long it takes to get the swabs read is not in the article except for "as soon as possible". https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/08/813501632/seattle-health-care-system-offers-drive-through-coronavirus-testing-for-workers

B&M Gates foundation is funding home test kits, but they are mail back swabs https://q13fox.com/2020/03/08/gates-foundation-to-soon-offer-home-testing-kits-for-coronavirus-in-seattle-area/

I am not an immunologist and I don't know how possible it is to have a truly rapid test kit that uses Real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) assays https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/lab/lab-testing.html. Maybe the best that you can get right now are 10 zillion well plates.

But this is absolute must have for any kind of control

Edited to fix link

« Last Edit: March 09, 2020, 03:35:43 am by DrG »
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Offline Bud

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #134 on: March 09, 2020, 12:12:13 am »
Who is in charge around here?!

I heard Pence ...?
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Offline DrG

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #135 on: March 09, 2020, 12:32:37 am »
Who is in charge around here?!

I heard Pence ...?

I'm trying really hard to leave the politics out of it....on here I respect that for an electronics site. So, I will just say that I am very disappointed in the response so far and that I hope it gets a lot better very soon. I am optimistic that the response will get much better.

As I understand it the R0 measure is for uncontrolled growth in the population (no vaccination, immunity, isolation). The idea is NOT to have the R0 materialize. Somebody on here said something like, "it is hard to outrun exponential growth". This is especially true when you wait until after the starting gun to move.

OK, got it out of my system for now. Sorry.
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Offline Bud

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #136 on: March 09, 2020, 12:39:18 am »
What politics are you talking about? Are we better informed here in Canada than you guys down there that  vice president Pence was assigned to lead the coronavirus response ?  :-//
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Offline DrG

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #137 on: March 09, 2020, 01:11:19 am »
What politics are you talking about? Are we better informed here in Canada than you guys down there that  vice president Pence was assigned to lead the coronavirus response ?  :-//

Yes, I am aware of the situation. I was referring to my gut response - my inclination to respond in a manner that is disrespectful of the principle to leave politics out of the discussion.
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Offline Stray Electron

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #138 on: March 09, 2020, 01:16:55 am »
Who is in charge around here?!

I heard Pence ...?

  Only for about the past week (since the 27th). Before that the CDC was in charge and apparently running very much open loop.
 

Offline Nusa

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #139 on: March 09, 2020, 01:20:24 am »
Search for "coronavirus politics" if you really want to find out. But no reason to bring it here. Those of us who care to know about relevant politics already know about them. Those of us who bury their head in the sand don't want to know at this time.
 

Offline VK3DRB

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #140 on: March 09, 2020, 01:27:37 am »
The important thing is to keep big business going, to keep the share price high and maintain market share. Just ask the CEOs of most large corporations, the mega-rich, and Dr. Groeteschele from Fail Safe (1964). Why not just let everyone get the virus and and let the elderly die? Their use-by date has expired anyway. And they are not big spenders on Nike or the latest Apple products, so the losses are minimal. The share price - that is what is important!

Seriously though, it is fun to watch the greedy and amoral suffer as the share market crashes :-+. Bad news though is the greedy might pour more money back into the housing investment market, making homes more unaffordable for genuine families than ever :--.
 

Offline Stray Electron

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #141 on: March 09, 2020, 01:29:05 am »
What politics are you talking about? Are we better informed here in Canada than you guys down there that  vice president Pence was assigned to lead the coronavirus response ?  :-//

   Bud, I don't think that that was directed at you. I think the previous poster was expressing his own dissatisfaction at the US's lack of testing and other failures with regard to handling the early outbreaks in the US.  I posted some similar days ago when I pointed out that the US had only tested 44something people whereas VietNam had tested over 1700 and South Korea had tested well over 100,000.  But to be fair, I will say this was when the CDC was in charge and before Pence was appointed to take charge.

   For the most part, everyone on this forum has done a good job of discussing the facts without veering off into politics. I hope we can keep it that way.
 

Offline Simon

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #142 on: March 09, 2020, 07:57:36 am »
I don't think investors are too bothered other than those involved in short term profiteering. In the long term things will come back. I heard a guy on the radio the other day saying just that. He was not bothered because his investment business works in the years and decades not the 1 week panic mode.
 

Offline Leo Bodnar

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #143 on: March 09, 2020, 09:52:43 am »
This is pretty close.  Here is a good primer of what R0 is.
Remember that R0 is not a rate.  It does not have time dimension in it.
Leo
As I understand it the R0 measure is for uncontrolled growth in the population (no vaccination, immunity, isolation). The idea is NOT to have the R0 materialize.

Offline Leo Bodnar

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #144 on: March 09, 2020, 09:56:05 am »
I am all for social justice but you probably do not know that most of society's pension money is invested in stock markets.
Be careful what you wish for.
Leo
Seriously though, it is fun to watch the greedy and amoral suffer as the share market crashes :-+.

Offline Simon

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #145 on: March 09, 2020, 10:39:23 am »
Quite, not my problem as at 36 plenty of time to recover. As much as i hate the stocks and shares model it will be the source of my pension.
 

Offline DrG

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #146 on: March 09, 2020, 01:52:50 pm »
This is pretty close.  Here is a good primer of what R0 is.
Remember that R0 is not a rate.  It does not have time dimension in it.
Leo
As I understand it the R0 measure is for uncontrolled growth in the population (no vaccination, immunity, isolation). The idea is NOT to have the R0 materialize.

Yes, you are right and I was being sloppy. What I meant, of course, is that the idea is NOT to have the expected number of secondary infections determined by R0 by introducing quarantine into the population in contrast to a "completely susceptible" population, which the R0 assumes.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/health/coronavirus-how-epidemics-spread-and-end/
« Last Edit: March 09, 2020, 05:40:17 pm by DrG »
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Offline metrologist

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #147 on: March 09, 2020, 03:15:06 pm »
 

Offline donotdespisethesnake

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #148 on: March 09, 2020, 04:43:16 pm »
There does seem to be a remarkable disconnect between what happened in China, and what the West were expecting. It seems that China is faraway and a distinct type of culture, so while we were LOLing at the Chinese building hospitals in 10 days, and declaring "war on Coronavirus", our mindset seemed to be "won't happen here, we are different".

We may will be different, but not in ways that affect a virus. The Chinese response was drastic and quite remarkable, and should have been a major heads up. In several ways they messed up the initial response, and the animal-human phase appears to have been overlooked, but then they got serious about it. Even with that warning, our governments have dillied about, and the public (no doubt prompted by our wonderful "free" media) go into panic mode.

There are interesting political angles which I won't go into. But it would be a good idea if the money that was chopped from budgets aimed at preventing pandemic outbreaks was restored... but what will probably happen is that after muddling through, people will say "that wasn't so bad" and go back to business as usual.

Bob
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Offline Simon

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #149 on: March 09, 2020, 05:30:11 pm »
Well N10  have used war like language but the actual action has not been that forthcoming. It would appear that they are still hedging their bets that it won't happen but that will make it happen. My sister is due to have a baby in May, I am not happy, last thing she needs is a Covid-19 ridden hospital to give birth in because we lost control of it.
 


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