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Covid 19 virus

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Cerebus:

--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 25, 2020, 04:41:28 pm ---
--- Quote from: imo on March 25, 2020, 04:30:16 pm ---
--- Quote from: Mr. Scram on March 24, 2020, 08:03:35 pm ---
--- Quote from: dunkemhigh on March 24, 2020, 07:48:32 pm ---About 20% isn't it? And an similarly small portion of those that will die even after treatment. If it were just those numbers one could be forgiven for considering the risk pretty low.

The trouble with this is that those 20% who would just have a bad time and recover only do so with the help of ICU. Once the hospitals run out of resources those 20% are going to be lucky to live. And they'll be taking non-CV patients with them that would ordinarily have survived whatever they're suffering from but now won't because there is no health service available to treat them.

--- End quote ---
As far as I know the percentage is much smaller for people <60 and probably a bit bigger for those over 70. That's of the known cases. It appears the total number is between 0% and 5% but that number is still being assessed.

--- End quote ---

NY gov Cuomo reported 3% of positive tested landed in ICU as of today [CNN: NY gov briefing].

--- End quote ---

Isn't that consistent with what WHO has been posting all along in their daily Situation Updates? 3-4% of all confirmed cases end up in deaths?

--- End quote ---

'Admitted to ICU' != 'died'

SiliconWizard:

--- Quote from: Cerebus on March 25, 2020, 03:58:42 pm ---
--- Quote from: Stray Electron on March 25, 2020, 02:39:47 pm ---    In every previous medical situation, the medical professionals have recommended using masks but now that the hospitals are short, suddenly they're telling everyone else NOT to use one and that suddenly they're ineffective.  Seriously?  Or are you just trying to keep all of the masks for yourself and your medical colleagues?

--- End quote ---

If, IF, that is true, so what? Who better deserves a supply of protective equipment if it's in short supply? The people on the front line risking their lives to help others or the general public?

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Oh, as I said earlier, I can understand the resource management and the priorities.
The small issue I see is the lie. Even if it's a white lie for the greater good, it's still a lie, and it's obvious that especially engineers will tend to call people on that.

drussell:

--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 25, 2020, 04:41:28 pm ---
--- Quote from: imo on March 25, 2020, 04:30:16 pm ---NY gov Cuomo reported 3% of positive tested landed in ICU as of today [CNN: NY gov briefing].

--- End quote ---

Isn't that consistent with what WHO has been posting all along in their daily Situation Updates? 3-4% of all confirmed cases end up in deaths?
--- End quote ---

An inaccurate, naïve, crude CFR would currently be 19784/441187 = 4.48%
The upper bound (based on known actual outcomes worldwide thus far) is currently 19784/131717 = 15.0%

With the exponential growth, 3% of cases already being in ICU spells disaster for New York.

dietert1:
The WHO predicts that within days USA will be the global hotspot of the coronavirus disease. I think all major TV channels should have prepared by now and start as soon as possible a strong educational effort to show and explain all aspects of how to DIY useful face masks and how to use them properly. Those programs should run all day instead of all the other nonsense. This way they should demonstrate their patriotism. Nodody should rely on some strange youtube video.

Regards, Dieter

iMo:

--- Quote from: Bud on March 25, 2020, 04:48:06 pm ---
--- Quote from: imo on March 25, 2020, 04:30:16 pm ---NY gov Cuomo reported 3% of positive tested landed in ICU as of today [CNN: NY gov briefing].

--- End quote ---
I've see a number of 16,000 ventilators for NY. If to assume each of the 3% critical patients in ICU will get one, an estimate of total cases will look like 500,000 or something?

--- End quote ---
As I can remember from the briefieng gov Cuomo wants 140.000 beds with ~30.000 ventilators in the apex of the curve which comes in 21 days.
PS: he suggested the ventilators may move together with the pandemic wave accros US, thus the other states will lend their ventilators to NY first, and so on.. He offered he will organize that movement in person.

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