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Covid 19 virus
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engrguy42:

--- Quote from: drussell on March 25, 2020, 05:03:02 pm ---
--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 25, 2020, 04:41:28 pm ---
--- Quote from: imo on March 25, 2020, 04:30:16 pm ---NY gov Cuomo reported 3% of positive tested landed in ICU as of today [CNN: NY gov briefing].

--- End quote ---

Isn't that consistent with what WHO has been posting all along in their daily Situation Updates? 3-4% of all confirmed cases end up in deaths?
--- End quote ---

An inaccurate, naïve, crude CFR would currently be 19784/441187 = 4.48%
The upper bound (based on known actual outcomes worldwide thus far) is currently 19784/131717 = 15.0%

With the exponential growth, 3% of cases already being in ICU spells disaster for New York.

--- End quote ---

Oh yeah...the "knock 'em down a peg guy".

Note to self: "STOP FOLLOWING THE CHAT FORUM !!!"  |O
gerts:
If it hasn't been mentioned before (i've only read of small fraction of these posts), I'm finding Dr. John Campbell's channel on youtube to be an excellent resource for current COVID-19 info.

https://youtu.be/HJlLVpJu7ZQ
drussell:

--- Quote from: dietert1 on March 25, 2020, 05:04:50 pm ---The WHO predicts that within days USA will be the global hotspot of the coronavirus disease.
--- End quote ---

They already are.  There are now already more confirmed, active, unresolved cases in the US (over 59,000) than anywhere else in the world, including Italy, and most of the US isn't even close to catching up with testing, let alone really trying to contain the spread.


--- Quote ---I think all major TV channels should have prepared by now and start as soon as possible a strong educational effort to show and explain all aspects of how to DIY useful face masks and how to use them properly. Those programs should run all day instead of all the other nonsense. This way they should demonstrate their patriotism. Nodody should rely on some strange youtube video.
--- End quote ---

You would think so, yeah, but that is not at all the way the USA works anymore.   :(

Unfortunately this is going to cost many lives and cause unprecedented levels of unnecessary turmoil.  I guess hopefully in the end it will help some people to come to their senses and emerge from the fog, stirring some level of desire for some fundamental changes, because this was all entirely predictable...
Cerebus:

--- Quote from: SiliconWizard on March 25, 2020, 05:00:41 pm ---
--- Quote from: Cerebus on March 25, 2020, 03:58:42 pm ---
--- Quote from: Stray Electron on March 25, 2020, 02:39:47 pm ---    In every previous medical situation, the medical professionals have recommended using masks but now that the hospitals are short, suddenly they're telling everyone else NOT to use one and that suddenly they're ineffective.  Seriously?  Or are you just trying to keep all of the masks for yourself and your medical colleagues?

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If, IF, that is true, so what? Who better deserves a supply of protective equipment if it's in short supply? The people on the front line risking their lives to help others or the general public?

--- End quote ---

Oh, as I said earlier, I can understand the resource management and the priorities.
The small issue I see is the lie. Even if it's a white lie for the greater good, it's still a lie, and it's obvious that especially engineers will tend to call people on that.

--- End quote ---

Except there's no evidence to point to a lie. That's why the "If, IF," qualification. And frankly, I don't think a bunch of engineers who hadn't heard of "basic reproduction number" or "case fatality ratios" two weeks ago, some of whom think that you culture human viruses in bacteria in a Petri dish, or can't tell the difference between a virologist, an epidemiologist or a general practitioner, or think that Kreb's cycle is something that you pedal, and probably think that xenic technique is something to do with how you handle foreigners, are best placed to make the judgement whether it's a lie or not.
drussell:

--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 25, 2020, 05:08:36 pm ---
--- Quote from: drussell on March 25, 2020, 05:03:02 pm ---An inaccurate, naïve, crude CFR would currently be 19784/441187 = 4.48%
The upper bound (based on known actual outcomes worldwide thus far) is currently 19784/131717 = 15.0%

With the exponential growth, 3% of cases already being in ICU spells disaster for New York.

--- End quote ---

Oh yeah...the "knock 'em down a peg guy".

Note to self: "STOP FOLLOWING THE CHAT FORUM !!!"  |O
--- End quote ---

Is that your way of saying that given the current trends, you believe New York will be fine?

Oh, my...

I cannot believe the number of people everywhere, apparently just sticking their heads in the sand, trying to mumble "LA LA LA LA LA  I Can't Hear You!  LA LAA LAAA," with sand in their mouth....   :palm:
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