General > General Technical Chat

Covid 19 virus

<< < (28/381) > >>

DrG:

--- Quote from: Leo Bodnar on March 09, 2020, 09:52:43 am ---This is pretty close.  Here is a good primer of what R0 is.
Remember that R0 is not a rate.  It does not have time dimension in it.
Leo

--- Quote from: DrG on March 09, 2020, 12:32:37 am ---As I understand it the R0 measure is for uncontrolled growth in the population (no vaccination, immunity, isolation). The idea is NOT to have the R0 materialize.
--- End quote ---

--- End quote ---

Yes, you are right and I was being sloppy. What I meant, of course, is that the idea is NOT to have the expected number of secondary infections determined by R0 by introducing quarantine into the population in contrast to a "completely susceptible" population, which the R0 assumes.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/health/coronavirus-how-epidemics-spread-and-end/

metrologist:
Seems grim

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html

donotdespisethesnake:
There does seem to be a remarkable disconnect between what happened in China, and what the West were expecting. It seems that China is faraway and a distinct type of culture, so while we were LOLing at the Chinese building hospitals in 10 days, and declaring "war on Coronavirus", our mindset seemed to be "won't happen here, we are different".

We may will be different, but not in ways that affect a virus. The Chinese response was drastic and quite remarkable, and should have been a major heads up. In several ways they messed up the initial response, and the animal-human phase appears to have been overlooked, but then they got serious about it. Even with that warning, our governments have dillied about, and the public (no doubt prompted by our wonderful "free" media) go into panic mode.

There are interesting political angles which I won't go into. But it would be a good idea if the money that was chopped from budgets aimed at preventing pandemic outbreaks was restored... but what will probably happen is that after muddling through, people will say "that wasn't so bad" and go back to business as usual.

Simon:
Well N10  have used war like language but the actual action has not been that forthcoming. It would appear that they are still hedging their bets that it won't happen but that will make it happen. My sister is due to have a baby in May, I am not happy, last thing she needs is a Covid-19 ridden hospital to give birth in because we lost control of it.

SilverSolder:

--- Quote from: Simon on March 09, 2020, 05:30:11 pm ---Well N10  have used war like language but the actual action has not been that forthcoming. It would appear that they are still hedging their bets that it won't happen but that will make it happen. My sister is due to have a baby in May, I am not happy, last thing she needs is a Covid-19 ridden hospital to give birth in because we lost control of it.

--- End quote ---

Home birth?

Navigation

[0] Message Index

[#] Next page

[*] Previous page

There was an error while thanking
Thanking...
Go to full version
Powered by SMFPacks Advanced Attachments Uploader Mod