General > General Technical Chat
Covid 19 virus
tinhead:
--- Quote from: paulca on March 27, 2020, 12:46:03 pm ---
--- Quote from: StillTrying on March 27, 2020, 11:37:04 am ---Brits PM Bojo got corvid19.
It's the first time he's done anything with a positive result.
--- End quote ---
Now, now. I wouldn't wish this on anyone except Trump.
--- End quote ---
yeah .. but trump achived finally one step of the america first idea ...
engrguy42:
My summary of today's WHO March 27 Situation update on COVID19, focusing on the US as well as the top 8 countries with the most total deaths to date. If you're interested in other data not included here, check the report yourself at:
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/
Again, the chart below shows total US deaths to date in yellow, and daily deaths in dark blue. The spreadsheet below shows what it shows. I focus on numbers relative to population for this reason:
If city A has a population of 100,000, and 500 residents have COVID19, but city B has a population of only 1,000 but then same number of residents (500) have COVID19, which is in better shape in terms of the future outlook, and ability of infrastructure to handle the disease?
- The number of deaths in the US dropped yesterday to only 107 new deaths, compared to around 200 deaths in each of the previous 3 out of 4 days. For the last 9 or so days, the US has averaged around 100 deaths total per day.
- The US is in the same position it was yesterday (relative to the 8 countries with most deaths to date) in terms of confirmed cases as a % of the population (#6) and total deaths to date as a % of the population (#7).
- The US remains #3 in terms of total confirmed cases (68,334) among those 8 countries.
FYI, the reason I focus on deaths is because there are far too many unknowns, IMO, to draw any meaningful conclusions on the ultimate impact based solely on number of confirmed cases. For example, Spain and Germany have vastly different numbers of total deaths to date (4089 vs 253, respectively), but have 56k vs. 42k confirmed cases, respectively.
And in the last 2 weeks the US has had a fairly flat average death rate, which is certainly not directly proportional to the increasing # of confirmed cases.
tinhead:
--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 27, 2020, 09:28:56 pm ---FYI, the reason I focus on deaths is because there are far too many unknowns
--- End quote ---
i do focus only on deaths/death+recovered. Yes, not every country does report recovered, but taking infected as basis for % calculation of deaths is useless:
- the number of not reported infected is much higher that the number of not reported recovered
- every infected can die or survive, depending on lot of factors, so i can't take it into acount based on todays situation
- only China can take death/total infected into account, as they already managed to control currently infected and number of recovered+deaths ar almost equ to total infected.
- taking death/total infected is good for media or politicians, not for real "deaths rate statistic today"
hamster_nz:
I wonder why the WHO data for the US lags other sources, like John's Hopkins. .
Are the US not sharing info in a transparent and timely manner?
(yes I guess tihis is 50% Troll and 50% serious qn)
engrguy42:
--- Quote from: hamster_nz on March 27, 2020, 09:46:39 pm ---I wonder why the WHO data for the US lags other sources, like John's Hopkins. .
Are the US not sharing info in a transparent and timely manner?
(yes I guess tihis is 50% Troll and 50% serious qn)
--- End quote ---
I believe (may be wrong) that the US government CDC (Centers for Disease Control) is the final US government authority on stuff like this, and I also assume that's where WHO gets its data for the US. And it seems like WHO data lags a day behind CDC, but I haven't researched that much. The good thing about WHO is it's presumably a reasonable comparison between countries.
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