Author Topic: Covid 19 virus  (Read 68907 times)

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Offline SilverSolder

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #150 on: March 09, 2020, 07:12:08 pm »
Well N10  have used war like language but the actual action has not been that forthcoming. It would appear that they are still hedging their bets that it won't happen but that will make it happen. My sister is due to have a baby in May, I am not happy, last thing she needs is a Covid-19 ridden hospital to give birth in because we lost control of it.

Home birth?
 

Offline Simon

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #151 on: March 09, 2020, 07:17:25 pm »
Yes I had wondered if they would be organized for that.
 

Offline SilverSolder

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #152 on: March 09, 2020, 07:22:06 pm »
Yes I had wondered if they would be organized for that.

Anyone can request it in the UK,  the midwives come to your house.  So few people do it, that you will get far more attention than at a hospital.   You have to request it well in advance...
 

Offline Simon

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #153 on: March 09, 2020, 07:29:22 pm »
Sounds like the best thing. With hospitals cleaned by contractors employing staff on minimum wage I have no wish to have her hanging around in a hospital that is full of people being treated for Covid-19, with the best will in the world once they go full overload cross contamination will occur.
 
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Offline DrG

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #154 on: March 09, 2020, 11:28:52 pm »
Decent tracking site here - https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
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Offline metrologist

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #155 on: March 09, 2020, 11:46:39 pm »
I expect to see acceleration in China in the next few days while people start migrating again.

China continues to report unrealistically low numbers of new daily cases. Just 4 today.
 

Offline edavid

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #156 on: March 09, 2020, 11:56:52 pm »
Sounds like the best thing. With hospitals cleaned by contractors employing staff on minimum wage I have no wish to have her hanging around in a hospital that is full of people being treated for Covid-19, with the best will in the world once they go full overload cross contamination will occur.

Under normal circumstances, home birth is much more dangerous than hospital birth.  I don't envy anyone having to balance that against coronavirus risk.
 

Offline metrologist

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #157 on: March 10, 2020, 03:30:07 am »
All of the roadside births I've heard about at the hands of cabbies or police officers have all had happy endings.
 

Offline donotdespisethesnake

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #158 on: March 10, 2020, 10:56:07 am »
Italy now on countrywide quarantine. Whether you believe the Chinese figures or not, the ROW is really taking off. I expect more national quarantines like Italy.


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Offline BU508A

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #159 on: March 10, 2020, 09:06:48 pm »
Time for a smile or two:



“Chaos is found in greatest abundance wherever order is being sought. It always defeats order, because it is better organized.”            - Terry Pratchett -
 

Offline Simon

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #160 on: March 10, 2020, 09:38:21 pm »
those are hilarious.
 

Online Weston

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #161 on: March 11, 2020, 12:47:10 am »
Universities in the USA started moving to online instruction last Wednesday. Today they started announcing that undergrads should not come back to campus after spring break, possibly not returning until next fall. I know that MIT, Stanford, and Harvard have implemented these policies, I assume other schools are also doing so.

Not that I really interact with the undergrads, but campus is going to be pretty quiet for the next few months and its going to be basically impossible for any lab or project based classes to be offered.

Given that this looks like its going to lead into an economic recession its a pretty good time to be a grad student. Guaranteed job security!
 

Offline whalphen

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #162 on: March 11, 2020, 03:15:25 pm »
At the end of last month I took a look at the US case count to try to get an idea of how quickly this disease would be spreading.  I just wanted to be able to make some plans regarding travel.  So, I watched the numbers from the worldometer website.  I found that the US case count doubled on a very regular pace.  From March 1 I started recording the number each day and plotting it.  It's amazing how predictible it has been.  Since March 1 in the US it has been very tightly tracking an exponential growth pattern.  The number of cases is doubling every 2.4 days.  On this growth path, the number of US cases will reach over 420,000 by the end of March.  However, in the US , bureaucratic and financial hurdles are resulting in very little testing being done.  So the actual number of cases is likely much higher than the available numbers.  If more extensive testing is done it will likely drive the numbers to go above the projection.  If significant actions are taken to slow the spread, the data will track below the curve.  So far, neither of these are seen in the data.

So, when will we see an inflection in the curve -- at the latest?  Epidemiologists are saying to expect 60% to 80% infection rate before herd immunity takes effect.  On the current growth path for the US, that will occur between April 21 and April 23.  But, considering that the case count is likely higher than we know and that fear will probably grip the population and policy leaders before that prompting them to take some actions to slow the spread, I suspect we'll see an inflection point in the US in mid April.  Unfortunately the inflection point will not be the peak.  I think it's safe to say this epidemic will be with us for more than the next couple of months.
 

Offline edy

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #163 on: March 11, 2020, 05:15:30 pm »
PANDEMIC!

Yes WHO finally shifted their stance from epidemic to pandemic. There were various reasons they held back but it is clearly a matter of mindset, political, social and economic strategies that motivated their decision along with the facts on the ground. Bottom line is, they don't want people to give up fighting since there was still "hope" when it was being treated as an epidemic. At this point, you might think resistance if futile, but even as a pandemic (which everyone already knew was where it was going), it is still good to fight it like an epidemic to slow down it's progression. This will be difficult in many liberal democracies but it may eventually come down to Italian-like lockdowns (I doubt we will ever allow Chinese-like lockdowns) which is going to be devastating either way.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2020, 05:17:33 pm by edy »
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Offline Simon

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #164 on: March 11, 2020, 05:27:35 pm »
i have food for a month. They have been compelled to change their stance as governments have an eye and a half on their corporate bosses and the stock market and not enough on the pandemic.
 

Offline Cerebus

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #165 on: March 11, 2020, 05:39:09 pm »
PANDEMIC!

Yes WHO finally shifted their stance from epidemic to pandemic. There were various reasons they held back but it is clearly a matter of mindset, political, social and economic strategies that motivated their decision along with the facts on the ground. Bottom line is, they don't want people to give up fighting since there was still "hope" when it was being treated as an epidemic. At this point, you might think resistance if futile, but even as a pandemic (which everyone already knew was where it was going), it is still good to fight it like an epidemic to slow down it's progression. This will be difficult in many liberal democracies but it may eventually come down to Italian-like lockdowns (I doubt we will ever allow Chinese-like lockdowns) which is going to be devastating either way.

The prior H1N1 outbreak was officially classified as a pandemic by the WHO. Just because it has met the criteria to be labelled a pandemic rather than an epidemic means only one thing, that much/most of the world is involved. Being a 'pandemic' is not a necessarily a question of seriousness or scale, just of geographical spread. I'm being pernickety precisely because the word 'pandemic' makes people use 18pt type, exclamation marks and start running around in circles panicking. By definition, all of you (unless we have some 11 year old members) lived through the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, and you're still here.

Quote
There were various reasons they held back but it is clearly a matter of mindset, political, social and economic strategies that motivated their decision along with the facts on the ground.

Much more likely is that they have a set of formal criteria that have to be met before something moves along the scale of nomenclature from outbreak=>epidemic=>pandemic.
Anybody got a syringe I can use to squeeze the magic smoke back into this?
 
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Offline Simon

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #166 on: March 11, 2020, 06:00:17 pm »
It's now quite widespread around the world. We got to this stage because we all went on holiday. I have a colleague that still expects to go to Austria at the end of the month  |O
 

Offline edy

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #167 on: March 11, 2020, 06:06:29 pm »
I'm being pernickety precisely because the word 'pandemic' makes people use 18pt type, exclamation marks and start running around in circles panicking. By definition, all of you (unless we have some 11 year old members) lived through the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, and you're still here.

Yes agreed. My understanding is that the classification change also affects how governments treat the outbreak, how funding is distributed, how they mobilize their health systems. It can change their policies toward travel, focusing their help internationally or bunkering down domestically, and so on. So now as we shift towards pandemic-management there will be different strategies employed, none of which involve stockpiling of toilet paper (I hope).  :-DD

All reports seem to indicate that like H1N1, it will probably end up infecting 70% of the population and that the vast majority (80%) of people will experience mild to moderate cold-like symptoms which eventually they recover from, with the remaining 20% having severe symptoms possibly requiring hospitalization. In this smaller subset of people, mostly immunologically fragile or breathing-compromised, we will see the possibly 2-3% of pneumonia-related deaths. While H1N1 had a purported death rate of 0.5%, most countries are already experiencing near-capacity health-care system utilization with many under-funded... so it will breach capacity unless things are slowed down.

So no need to panic but this is going to stress out hospitals for sure. Being in Canada and seeing how stressed to the brink our government-run health care system already is, and having quite a number of doctor and nurse friends, I am hearing from them what nightmare we might expect in the coming months if things keep "tragectorying" the way they have been so far. Nothing to do but wait and watch.  :popcorn:
« Last Edit: March 11, 2020, 06:10:12 pm by edy »
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Offline Simon

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #168 on: March 11, 2020, 06:24:24 pm »
The Uk will do badly once it spreads. accident and emmergency are always on the backfoot.
 

Offline not1xor1

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #169 on: March 11, 2020, 06:58:20 pm »
Well N10  have used war like language but the actual action has not been that forthcoming. It would appear that they are still hedging their bets that it won't happen but that will make it happen. My sister is due to have a baby in May, I am not happy, last thing she needs is a Covid-19 ridden hospital to give birth in because we lost control of it.

Both young women and babies (10 years and less) are low risk categories and by May it the virus should be much weaker.

COVID-19 is just a (one of the largest) bunch of RNA code enclosed in a protein shell.
It requires the host cell machinery to reproduce and doesn't live long outside a host. The hotter and wetter (RH) is the air the shorter is its life (in the air or on various surfaces).
 

Offline not1xor1

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #170 on: March 11, 2020, 07:01:13 pm »
I expect to see acceleration in China in the next few days while people start migrating again.

China continues to report unrealistically low numbers of new daily cases. Just 4 today.

given the harsh measures taken those are not unrealistic
I rather expect lots of unreported cases in the US (and even worse in Russia)
 

Offline DBecker

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #171 on: March 11, 2020, 07:11:58 pm »
All of the roadside births I've heard about at the hands of cabbies or police officers have all had happy endings.

Selection bias.  Quick births at full term are usually healthy mothers and babies.  Multiple days of pre-labor and labor is correlated with problems.

Similarly planned home births in areas with good health care tend to have good outcomes because people with higher risk don't select that option.  Home births with no other options have worse statistics  because there are usually no good fall-back plans.

The statistics for Covid-19 are uncertain because we can't separate the selection effects.  Perhaps we have 10x symptom-free cases for every serious case.
 


Offline edy

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #173 on: March 11, 2020, 07:52:59 pm »
https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

Long testimony, scary to read but perhaps a glimpse into what awaits us. Let's hope we have the fortitude and foresight to delay or stop this tidal wave before it gets to that point.

Just as an aside... I am in the health professions and ordered (along with a bunch of unrelated medical supplies) some masks from a medical supply company to health professionals/private clinics. I received everything BUT the masks order which are indefinite back-order. I have a doctor friend of ours that is in a private multi-doctor clinic and she had to drive 1 hour away to buy a box of masks.

So you need to prioritize masks going to people in the community who have high "Bacon numbers"... i.e. people who are potentially in contact with many other people throughout the day and in close proximity (dentists, doctors, etc), as they would be a "node" with high connectivity of potential transmission. Having said that, a lawyer in New York apparently is being implicated as being such a "node" with multiple cases being tracked back to that office. Blocking as many of these high-connectivity nodes would be more effective I would think. Computer-modelling this may gain useful insight into the best places to distribute such equipment and the best strategies for containment when limited supplies are available.

« Last Edit: March 11, 2020, 08:29:02 pm by edy »
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Offline metrologist

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #174 on: March 11, 2020, 07:58:19 pm »
Selection bias.

My comment was merely a statement of my experience, nothing more. I've never seen a person with purple skin is not the same as saying there are no people with purple skin. But I actually saw a guy on TV that did have purple skin, or maybe it was more of a blue. Maybe if I'd never seen the segment I truly would not believe people could have purple skin. Maybe the media is biased and does not report of botched curbside births.  :-//

I'd not want to have a pregnant sister in the same situation right now either.
 


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