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Covid 19 virus

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engrguy42:
Definition of "rate" from Merriam Webster:

"quantity, amount, or degree of something measured per unit of something else"

As I described in my post, I chose to define "rate" in this case as "new deaths per day". And as I showed in my chart (but apparently some didn't read), the number of new deaths each day has been fairly flat, on average, jumping between 50 to 200 or so new deaths each day. If you don't like my choice of definition, I'm sure you can still get my point. Just look at the blue bars in the chart.   

Also, I caution folks to try to avoid grabbing data from the internet to prove whatever point you want to make without verifying the source of the data. And trying to compare 254 different data sources is somewhat ludicrous at this point. Yeah, you can always find someone saying stuff that confirms what you want to believe, but by using a single, reasonably credible (ie, CDC and WHO) data source at least gives a good uniform and relative comparison.

I'd also caution folks to try to avoid predicting what will happen. Nobody knows. And if actual data doesn't agree with what you've chosen to believe, maybe you should reconsider your beliefs rather than throwing in a bunch of unsubstantiated "what if's". Or at least allow the possibility that you might be wrong.

thinkfat:

--- Quote from: not1xor1 on March 28, 2020, 09:48:56 am ---
--- Quote from: hendorog on March 28, 2020, 06:10:08 am ---Deaths are easier to count, but of course are delayed too much to be useful, impacted by the demographic and existing health conditions,, and impacted by the capacity of the medical system to treat people (ICU beds etc)

Comparing countries is not easy. Germany is clearly a big outlier. Perhaps they are awesome at testing and contact tracing. And so they have detected many more people with minor infections than other countries.

--- End quote ---

here is an interesting article on the subject (unfortunately for some reason the graphics do not appear in the google translated page)
https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.corriere.it%2Fsalute%2Fmalattie_infettive%2F20_marzo_27%2Fstudio-ispi-ecco-qual-vera-letalita-covid-19-italia-b95d19cc-7029-11ea-82c1-be2d421e9f6b.shtml

--- End quote ---

As far as I understood, over here the reporting method is going to change. It was found that the majority of PCR tests came back negative and from now on everyone in contact with a confirmed case is reported infected but not tested. I'm now part of that statistic group. Lab tests with the PCR test kit are only being done on  symptomatic patients with a contact history. That's going to skew the numbers of course. Mass testing will close the gap eventually, but those need to be carefully planned, too. ELISA tests are being rolled out soon, but those a still lab tests. Lateral Flow tests are not yet available, at least nothing that was validated. I heard you can buy them, though, at least they're being offered to MDs and pharmacies. No idea about their origin, though.

For me personally, that's a weird situation. I show up in the "infected" group, but I'm only sent into isolation for two weeks to see what I breed. After that, if I'm not getting worse and being admitted to hospital I'm not getting tested. If in two weeks I show no further symptoms, I'll show up as "recovered" but I have no idea if I'm now immune and can go about my business, for example, get in contact with my parents or if I still risk to become infected and potentially spread the virus further. This is very unsatisfying.

PlainName:

--- Quote ---Or at least allow the possibility that you might be wrong.
--- End quote ---

What? Are you crazy??!

drussell:

--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 28, 2020, 11:07:10 am ---I'd also caution folks to try to avoid predicting what will happen. Nobody knows.
...
Or at least allow the possibility that you might be wrong.
--- End quote ---

You honestly still believe that the near-term progression in the USA cannot be predicted?  Wow.

:palm:

drussell:

--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 28, 2020, 11:07:10 am ---As I described in my post, I chose to define "rate" in this case as "new deaths per day". And as I showed in my chart (but apparently some didn't read), the number of new deaths each day has been fairly flat, on average, jumping between 50 to 200 or so new deaths each day.
--- End quote ---

Of course the new deaths per day has been relatively flat, and low, as the number of infected people was low 2-3 weeks ago.  The number of infected hadn't started rising exponentially yet.  Once some of those cases from the explosive-spread phase start having outcomes, things aren't going to be pretty and the line is not going to be flat.

I don't understand how you can refuse to see that.  I'm beginning to think this is deliberate trolling.

Good luck, regardless...  Try to stay healthy.

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