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Covid 19 virus
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PlainName:
A pedant writes:


--- Quote ---boiled frogs is a myth
--- End quote ---

ignoring the possibility that it's also a metaphor, thus missing the wood for the trees :)
nctnico:

--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 28, 2020, 06:06:55 pm ---After reviewing the numbers so far, I tried to come up with what I personally think is a reasonable ballpark of how I personally am expecting this virus to proceed in the US. Now, before you jump in and tell me I'm wrong, don't bother. I agree with you. I'm wrong.

The sole purpose of this is for me personally to get a ballpark idea of what seems reasonable to expect. For me. Personally. Based on present WHO data on how it's transpired so far in the world.

My bottom line is that I wouldn't be surprised if the virus numbers (confirmed and total deaths) in the US worsened for the next 2-3 weeks, and started to flatten and decline by the end of April. And I wouldn't be surprised if the US total deaths go from the present 1,000+ to between 5,000 to 10,000 before they decline. FYI, at present, Italy has reported over 8,000 deaths, China (where it all started) over 3,000 deaths, and Spain over 4,000 deaths. So I personally won't be surprised if US gets to where Spain or Italy are right now in terms of total deaths, prior to a decline by end of April as the virus dies out like SARS, etc.

--- End quote ---
That is highly speculative. If you look at Italy (Wikipedia has daily numbers for cases, recoveries and deaths for many countries) then you can see they are managing to flatten the daily increase of cases and number of deaths (which seem to be correlated to the flattening of daily cases is likely not due to less testing). Looking at the new cases and deaths in the US then the number is still rising rapidly. Also large parts of the US don't seem to be locked down (yet) so the Covid19 virus is spreading there freely. I've seen articles estimating the number of deaths in the US ranging from 450k to 1.5M. Unlike SARS Covid19 needs very serious lockdown measures in order to die out. I'm starting to get more and more respect for the Chinese for their ability to actually contain Covid19.
maginnovision:
I recently saw a video(https://youtu.be/INrWb-kl5NI) New York City public housing hasn't been cleaning buildings, have limited elevators(forcing people to be cramped into remaining), and they're people who don't always have internet and are largely unaware of what they should be doing. 500000 people in close proximity. If it hits there you'll see huge numbers real fast, and while it would be bad I'd hardly say it reflects the US situation as a whole. New York has a population density over double that of any other US city.

There also is the idea of an actionable quarantine of the tristate area(NY, NJ, CT). NJ has started to quarantine people coming from NY as well.
Mortymore:

--- Quote from: peter-h on March 28, 2020, 05:25:21 pm ---Without giving percentages per population, this is not very useful. If say 80% of Portugal was aged 40-60 then you would get a peak there anyway.

--- End quote ---

Probably here is something of interest: https://www.populationpyramid.net/pt/portugal/2020/

Don't know how accurate the numbers are, but you can check de population distribution by ages in the world
Cerebus:

--- Quote from: dunkemhigh on March 28, 2020, 06:31:04 pm ---A pedant writes:


--- Quote ---boiled frogs is a myth
--- End quote ---

ignoring the possibility that it's also a metaphor, thus missing the wood for the trees :)

--- End quote ---

And the little pool of simmering frog soup in the middle of that wood.  :)
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