General > General Technical Chat
Covid 19 virus
<< < (309/381) > >>
Cerebus:

--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 28, 2020, 06:06:55 pm ---The sole purpose of this is for me personally to get a ballpark idea of what seems reasonable to expect. For me. Personally.

--- End quote ---

If it's purely for personal consumption, as you stress so heavily, why are you bothering other people with it? Is this a version of "stop hitting my hand with your face?
not1xor1:

--- Quote from: nctnico on March 28, 2020, 06:34:17 pm ---Unlike SARS Covid19 needs very serious lockdown measures in order to die out. I'm starting to get more and more respect for the Chinese for their ability to actually contain Covid19.

--- End quote ---

It is high unlikely to die out. It is so wide spread now that it will probably become just like the other human coronaviruses, hopefully with just the same flu-like symptoms once we get herd immunity (via vaccine).
BTW the most recent hypothesis is that pangolins were the intermediate hosts beween bats and humans.
nctnico:

--- Quote from: Mortymore on March 28, 2020, 06:44:02 pm ---
--- Quote from: peter-h on March 28, 2020, 05:25:21 pm ---Without giving percentages per population, this is not very useful. If say 80% of Portugal was aged 40-60 then you would get a peak there anyway.

--- End quote ---

Probably here is something of interest: https://www.populationpyramid.net/pt/portugal/2020/

Don't know how accurate the numbers are, but you can check de population distribution by ages in the world

--- End quote ---
According to a Dutch newspaper Dutch doctors observed 70% to 80% of the people ending up in the ICU are fat. Ofcourse this is just an observation but could hint to other risk factors besides age.
drussell:

--- Quote from: 2N3055 on March 28, 2020, 06:12:51 pm ---
--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 28, 2020, 06:06:55 pm ---...
Again, I admit this is all wrong. And if you disagree, feel free to post your own predictions, with numbers and rationale and such like I did. Should be interesting.

--- End quote ---

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Instead of all of us inventing data and predictions, take a look at how it's done...
--- End quote ---

For anyone that is interested in doing their own analysis or verification, the following paper will likely prove useful to help guide your methodology.  It compares several methods of during-epridemic estimation versus the eventual final CFR of all the actual outcomes.  It was published in the American Journal of Epidemiology in 2005, based on the data from the 2003 SARS outbreak:

"Methods for Estimating the Case Fatality Ratio for a Novel, Emerging Infectious Disease"
https://academic.oup.com/aje/article-pdf/162/5/479/187184/kwi230.pdf
Wimberleytech:

--- Quote from: not1xor1 on March 28, 2020, 06:52:20 pm ---
--- Quote from: nctnico on March 28, 2020, 06:34:17 pm ---Unlike SARS Covid19 needs very serious lockdown measures in order to die out. I'm starting to get more and more respect for the Chinese for their ability to actually contain Covid19.

--- End quote ---

It is high unlikely to die out. It is so wide spread now that it will probably become just like the other human coronaviruses, hopefully with just the same flu-like symptoms once we get herd immunity (via vaccine).
BTW the most recent hypothesis is that pangolins were the intermediate hosts beween bats and humans.

--- End quote ---
Interesting.  Did not know what a pangolin was until I looked it up.  Ironic that it is use for traditional Chinese medicine.
So what is the view on why Italy has been hit so hard?
Navigation
Message Index
Next page
Previous page
There was an error while thanking
Thanking...

Go to full version
Powered by SMFPacks Advanced Attachments Uploader Mod