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Covid 19 virus

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DrG:
I was reading an interesting article (in between watching incredibly inane movies) in which they examined survivors of the 1918 H1N1 flu....

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature07231.epdf?referrer_access_token=Vyn0JX8ce0UgpEObeHFQStRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0P-hTGufxokLlBSmytyWfowCBsIVSdopVCDwpHmGqSqgSpMTiaOy5uudcYMA-3xwzy2H0dmCINd2usthdi276xFB3RwVayCiOwfUGCdYmAKoAgJPH2dr6MkMueG7oH3FX9yZbqSr4DZDklhIDpK7VcPjwoqT0vXzB32vEM54CXbbI4OHTvQGMsKWUirc9P7GTEd9rh7ZKpWjxhl7uc286eBpRo7vvcPnCnuGLHzDDiY84Fd4XimeF8XEqXy8TOPXYg%3D

Here we show that of the 32 individuals tested that were born in or before 1915, each showed seroreactivity with the 1918 virus, nearly 90 years after the pandemic. Seven of the eight donor samples tested had circulating B cells that secreted antibodies that bound the 1918 HA.

I am not an immunologist, but it seems clear that there was plenty of "memory" for the virus left.

But, look at this article investigating 2009 H1N1: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0016809

Vaccination of 2009 influenza A (H1N1) was effective. However, about half or more recovered patients and vaccinated persons might have lost sufficient immunity against the recurrence of the viral infection after half a year.

Having a biological "memory" of the infection event is not the same thing as "sufficient immunity", but I am confused by the differences.

I'm anxious to see what we will see with SARS-Cov-2. Has anybody seen published immunity data? All I see are test development and suggested rapid deployment tests e.g., https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037713v1

drussell:

--- Quote from: nctnico on March 28, 2020, 08:51:17 pm ---
--- Quote from: dunkemhigh on March 28, 2020, 08:26:00 pm ---https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-bergamo.html
--- End quote ---
It's behind a login wall in order to harvest e-mail addresses to spam. Can you paste the relevant part of the text?
--- End quote ---

Try opening it in a private window.  That works here in Firefox.

drussell:

--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 28, 2020, 03:36:16 pm ---...
looking for real numbers and perhaps a bit of hope.
--- End quote ---

You aren't the only one.  Stay strong, friend!

I realize that many people are trying to "make sense of it all," find some hope and comfort in this whole dreadful situation.  Personally, I find the most comfort in truthful transparency, facts and data, rather than trying to put a sugar coating on an inevitable reality.


--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 28, 2020, 06:06:55 pm ---My bottom line is that I wouldn't be surprised if the virus numbers (confirmed and total deaths) in the US worsened for the next 2-3 weeks, and started to flatten and decline by the end of April. And I wouldn't be surprised if the US total deaths go from the present 1,000+ to between 5,000 to 10,000 before they decline. FYI, at present, Italy has reported over 8,000 deaths, China (where it all started) over 3,000 deaths, and Spain over 4,000 deaths. So I personally won't be surprised if US gets to where Spain or Italy are right now in terms of total deaths, prior to a decline by end of April as the virus dies out like SARS, etc.
...
Present confirmed cases in US are probably around 80k, and if we assume a ballpark death rate of around 3% that means as a minimum we can expect an additional 2,000+ deaths, raising the total from the present 1,000 to 3,000.
...
So given all that, I personally won't be surprised if by end of April the US sees a total death rate about where Italy is today (ie, maybe something like 8x what the US total deaths are today, or somewhere between 5,000 to 10,000 total), and after that I'm expecting the virus to follow the path of SARS and other past viruses that kinda died out.
--- End quote ---

Obviously everyone wants to hope for the prevention of as many deaths as possible, everywhere.

The problem with doing simplistic extrapolating from the current numbers is you're not taking into account the exponential nature of the infections past the set of patients that today's outcomes represent.  You have to shift the outcomes back on the confirmed-infected curves to see the actual trajectory and make estimations based on that.  Here are a couple of examples, simply pulled from the latest raw JHU data (https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19), with the known outcomes shifted back given what we know about average time-to-outcome, etc. and graphed:


Bud:
I hope the fun was worth the pain.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163401/Man-48-spat-police-officers-claiming-coronavirus-symptoms-jailed-year.html

Zero999:

--- Quote from: Bud on March 28, 2020, 09:57:23 pm ---I hope the fun was worth the pain.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163401/Man-48-spat-police-officers-claiming-coronavirus-symptoms-jailed-year.html

--- End quote ---
Unfortunately there are some cunts around.

Apparently it's now a criminal offence to threaten someone by claiming you have Covid-19 and coughing on them. It's say they've had to create new laws to deal with this.

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