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Covid 19 virus
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DBecker:

--- Quote from: metrologist on March 10, 2020, 03:30:07 am ---All of the roadside births I've heard about at the hands of cabbies or police officers have all had happy endings.

--- End quote ---

Selection bias.  Quick births at full term are usually healthy mothers and babies.  Multiple days of pre-labor and labor is correlated with problems.

Similarly planned home births in areas with good health care tend to have good outcomes because people with higher risk don't select that option.  Home births with no other options have worse statistics  because there are usually no good fall-back plans.

The statistics for Covid-19 are uncertain because we can't separate the selection effects.  Perhaps we have 10x symptom-free cases for every serious case.
iMo:
https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
edy:

--- Quote from: imo on March 11, 2020, 07:35:47 pm ---https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

--- End quote ---

Long testimony, scary to read but perhaps a glimpse into what awaits us. Let's hope we have the fortitude and foresight to delay or stop this tidal wave before it gets to that point.

Just as an aside... I am in the health professions and ordered (along with a bunch of unrelated medical supplies) some masks from a medical supply company to health professionals/private clinics. I received everything BUT the masks order which are indefinite back-order. I have a doctor friend of ours that is in a private multi-doctor clinic and she had to drive 1 hour away to buy a box of masks.

So you need to prioritize masks going to people in the community who have high "Bacon numbers"... i.e. people who are potentially in contact with many other people throughout the day and in close proximity (dentists, doctors, etc), as they would be a "node" with high connectivity of potential transmission. Having said that, a lawyer in New York apparently is being implicated as being such a "node" with multiple cases being tracked back to that office. Blocking as many of these high-connectivity nodes would be more effective I would think. Computer-modelling this may gain useful insight into the best places to distribute such equipment and the best strategies for containment when limited supplies are available.

metrologist:

--- Quote from: DBecker on March 11, 2020, 07:11:58 pm ---Selection bias.
--- End quote ---

My comment was merely a statement of my experience, nothing more. I've never seen a person with purple skin is not the same as saying there are no people with purple skin. But I actually saw a guy on TV that did have purple skin, or maybe it was more of a blue. Maybe if I'd never seen the segment I truly would not believe people could have purple skin. Maybe the media is biased and does not report of botched curbside births.  :-//

I'd not want to have a pregnant sister in the same situation right now either.
donotdespisethesnake:

--- Quote from: not1xor1 on March 11, 2020, 06:58:20 pm ---by May it the virus should be much weaker.

--- End quote ---

Snopes rates that as "unproven". https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/coronavirus-warm-weather/
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