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| Covid 19 virus |
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| Electro Detective:
--- Quote from: VK3DRB on March 30, 2020, 10:17:39 am --- --- Quote from: blueskull on March 29, 2020, 02:36:42 pm --- --- Quote from: Siwastaja on March 29, 2020, 02:12:44 pm ---Many of us are from crippled political systems where the proper response comes way too late, and with way more difficulties than it should. --- End quote --- Actually, from the first case traced back to 12.1 to the general mass to realize sh!t happened, it took us a good 7 weeks. Things started to smell fishy on around 1.20 and quickly escalated to full lock down of Wuhan and prepared lock down of many other cities. Until all measures were taken, it took us at least 8 good weeks to respond. The second wave, imported cases, started to show at least a month ago, and just yesterday China closed its boarder. So it seems we made the same mistake on wasting time. This is a delay thing. As we are seeing, Italy, then some other EU countries, then the US, are using a lot of emergency laws to make things happen now, and more countries will certainly jump on the same wagon. World leaders are alike. They tend to cover it up, try to ride it out, until things go wrong and they go berserk and declare a full scale war against it. --- End quote --- You are right. But some governments are also infused with a mixture of with foolishness and stupidity, as well. This virus fiasco in Australia could have been avoided with agile and proactive government. Ours allowed several planeloads of travellers from Wuhan out onto the streets after the virus was already out of control in Wuhan. Then we have the Ruby Princess fiasco where NSW Health allowed 2,700 off the cruise ship just a couple of weeks ago. Today there are hundreds infected from this ship. The NSW Health hypocrite is beating his chest saying anyone caught breaking the rules would be fined. He should be put under arrest. --- End quote --- "some governments" ??! :D "Today there are hundreds infected from this ship." so it wasn't bali belly from gorging 24/7 on reheated 'all you can eat' ship food ? :scared: :scared: |
| BravoV:
--- Quote from: nctnico on March 30, 2020, 10:40:31 pm ---Meanwhile it seems there is a propaganda war going on in Italy between Cuba, China, Russia and the US about who can deliver the most support. :palm: Ofcourse there is a lot of chest beating going on while in reality France has delivered more face masks to Italy compared to Cuba, China and Russia. --- End quote --- Really do not understand why are you so agitated about this ? :-// Beside, these are for humanity, the more aids or helps to Italy, the merrier right ? Cuba, China and Russia are so far away from Italy, all logistics and personnels need to be air transported, while France is just a neighboring to Italy across land border, how hard is that to imagine this ? Besides, just masks ? How about other medical supplies and the most important and valued aid, medical teams ? Politically, these damn communist countries that you despise, while doing their chess pounding which imo they deserved it, they are also doing you a favor in disguised, which is sending a clear message to the so called brotherhood of Euro countries ::) , that among brothers should help each other "more" than strangers/adversaries that live far-far away across the globe. Remember, Italy at earlier period was ignored and abandoned after begged and cried for help and aid to the Euro countries, and your beloved country Dutch is among those who explicitly denied to help, even to send just medical supplies, let alone "human" medical teams. Kids these days. :palm: |
| BrianHG:
3Blue1Brown on how to simulate an epidemic: (Mar 27th) |
| rf-loop:
--- Quote from: blueskull on March 29, 2020, 02:36:42 pm --- --- Quote from: Siwastaja on March 29, 2020, 02:12:44 pm ---Many of us are from crippled political systems where the proper response comes way too late, and with way more difficulties than it should. --- End quote --- The second wave, imported cases, started to show at least a month ago, and just yesterday China closed its boarder. So it seems we made the same mistake on wasting time. --- End quote --- Imo not. :-X I have tracked lot of data here in China when I have been whole self quarantine and now partially self quarantined over 2 months and also some other knowledge about this situation :-X It looks like there is NOT second wave started at all inside mainland China. Yes, statistics looks like show it but it is, it need look bit more carefully. (Yes I also follow my nationality country Finland and some other European newspapers and some other public media and seen lot of fake news - some times downright shameful) If look some public statistics, example https://news.ifeng.com/c/special/7tPlDSzDgVk It looks like there is new wave starting (attached image). If look more carefully what is inside this... There in graph (red) is all inside whole China including Taiwan, HK and Macao. and including also COVID-19 imported cases from outside (mainly some chinese peoples returning back to china from epidemic area.) All these goes to controlled quarantine/isolation before can enter inside. If not sick, after 14 days and tests they are free to go, and sick peoples goes to isolation and as long they are positive they stay inside controlled isolation. Previously there was also foreign peoples coming to work or other purposes via quarantine etc but some days ago this road is closed. If some foreigner have already visa or residence permit and he is outside, no way to come in now. Of course there is some very special cases but lets not count these.) Problem is that most foreign media look only these statistics without looking inside data. If we take Taiwan, HK, Macao out from this trend and overseas income to mainland China there is not any sign about second wave. (very roughly my blue line) But it need very perfect and careful work to keep this situation. Now after Hubei area is nearly opened and also Wuhan it need really carefully detect every possible new case and trace all possibly infected with this case. Yes, China can do it. If look Hubei what is not included in this graph. Last week Hubei area do not have any new cases, and if look two week only total 2 new cases. And situation is very different if look foreign countries. China can track peoples and most other countries can not. This have been extremely big advantage in this COVID case. It have saved tens of thousand dead or even more. Then if look diagnosed cases dead rate. Many news wonder example Germany low dead rate. No one talk dead rate in China. If we count Hubei and whole other part of country separately (it need look separately because they are separated totally) In whole Hubei, dead rate is 4.7%. Wuhan alone, (inside Hubei area) original epicenter of COVID, there dead rate is 5.1% Hubei without Wuhan 3.6% It can roughly say this whole Hubei area population is 60 M and some rough estimate about Wuhan city, 11M Then whole rest of China 1368 M ppl In this area hospitals have been in nearly normal load, not at all saturated. Also amount of tests have been well enough. Dead rate is now 0.86% (Whole China without well isolated Hubei area. Note, Hubei isolation is just now changing and going to normal free but naturally under full control so that if any signs about new wave it can stop before it even start. ) And this is now in situation where most of sick peoples have died or survived and very small amount of new cases. Dead rate have delay. In China situation is nearly static now but in many other countries amount of COVID cases is fast rising phase and dead rate naturally rise delayed. In Germany it looks now 0.85% (but COVID situation is fast moving there). So why this is so big wonder in western media, in China this is normal rate from confirmed cases. Is it so that Germany is only country who follow WHO test recommendations after WHO was learned its power in China. (Yes also Singapore and S-Korea looks like do enough tests for detect and track the chains of infections for stop them.) |
| tautech:
rf-loop, good to hear you are safe and well still in China. We have not spoken lately as I knew you would be cooped up safely. :) Another week has been added to the NZ lockdown and we have just 1 dead and some 650+ currently infected. 80 odd recovered. Infections have slowed a little but it is too soon to say it is a trend and luckily most infections are related to returning travellers and not in the general community. Stay safe friend. |
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