Author Topic: Covid 19 virus  (Read 68788 times)

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Offline donotdespisethesnake

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #175 on: March 11, 2020, 08:00:44 pm »
by May it the virus should be much weaker.

Snopes rates that as "unproven". https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/coronavirus-warm-weather/
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Offline Nusa

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #176 on: March 11, 2020, 08:05:51 pm »
However, the areas that got it first are going to recover first. So China is going to be back to work sooner than the US, which is just starting to react, despite Trumps assurances that everything will be ok.

(I have food for maybe three months, although the last month won't have much variety.)
 

Offline imo

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #177 on: March 11, 2020, 08:22:02 pm »
German Chancellor Merkel on Covid:
https://berlinspectator.com/2020/03/11/merkel-on-coronavirus-we-need-to-pass-the-test/
"Therefore 60 to 70 percent of all people in Germany could be infected."
aka "What Doesn't Kill You Makes You Stronger"
« Last Edit: March 11, 2020, 08:23:33 pm by imo »
 

Online Cerebus

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #178 on: March 11, 2020, 08:44:05 pm »
by May it the virus should be much weaker.

Snopes rates that as "unproven". https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/coronavirus-warm-weather/

"The virus should be much weaker" and 'the virus is less likely to be transmitted in warmer weather' - the latter being what Snopes considers - are not the same thing.

There's a real possibility that the virus in circulation may be less virulent by May by a combination of two reasons: (1) Coronaviruses are highly mutable, there's a very high probability of new variants emerging during a pandemic, (2) viruses/bacteria/parasites that kill their hosts are less likely to spread than less lethal variants. This was actually seen, and confirmed, during one of the earlier flu pandemics (I don't offhand remember which one) where later in the pandemic the original flu variant died off and a mutated, less virulent, variant continued to spread - the death rate fell while infection rates continued at the same level. Although this is a real possibility, it's not a effect that any plan to control the disease ought to rely on.
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Offline imo

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #179 on: March 11, 2020, 08:59:55 pm »
The virus is more prone to a damage with higher temperature, lower humidity and more ultraviolet exposure.
Therefore we have flu epidemics in the northern hemisphere usually in winter (and also the human immune system is at lowest level in winter/spring).
« Last Edit: March 11, 2020, 09:23:06 pm by imo »
 

Offline imo

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #180 on: March 11, 2020, 09:16:47 pm »
The cloudy vs. sunny days in the spring may represent days vs. hours of the virus activity on a surface.

PS: Italy closes all stores except pharmacies and food outlets
« Last Edit: March 11, 2020, 09:28:33 pm by imo »
 

Offline VK3DRB

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #181 on: March 11, 2020, 11:07:16 pm »
People should learn their history and not be as ignorant as the morons in Thailand wearing the swastika.

The 1919 Spanish 'flu (actually it started in the USA) came in three waves. It was the third wave that wiped out most of the victims. The Chinese communist party is beating its chest about how great totalitarian rule is, but at least another wave will very likely follow, much worse than the first one. How these serial liars are going to face up to the Chinese people if and when it happens will be interesting.

The WHO just announced the pandemic. Monday might be a good time to buy stocks with a long term view.
 

Offline hamster_nz

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #182 on: March 11, 2020, 11:19:03 pm »
Because I found it very thought provoking, here is the RNA for one of the Australian samples :

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MT007544

At ~30,000 bases, that's about at most 8 kilobytes of information, that can kill thousands (maybe soon millions?) of people, and billions of $.

PS. If felling uber-geeky you can also cut and paste part of the sequence (a line or two) into BLAST (see link on top right) and see what else matches...
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Offline Kjelt

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #183 on: March 11, 2020, 11:28:00 pm »
The virus is more prone to a damage with higher temperature, lower humidity and more ultraviolet exposure.
Therefore we have flu epidemics in the northern hemisphere usually in winter (and also the human immune system is at lowest level in winter/spring).
Higher humidity. With lower humidity as in the winter the nasaldrops loose their moist content faster and the particles travel larger distances. That is why you should keep a further distance with lower humidity than high humidity where the heavier particles will drop sooner and travel a shorter distance.
 

Offline Sredni

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #184 on: March 11, 2020, 11:28:29 pm »
PS: Italy closes all stores except pharmacies and food outlets

In the rest of Europe they are still at stage 1: don't worry, 80% only show mild symptoms.
Don't forget to wash your hands, and no, masks are not needed (don't but them, we need them)

EDIT: Apparently, other parts of the world are still at stage 0: "lalalalalala it's just the flu, I don't want to look at numbers".

P.S.
Dave, "Amid growing suggestions that ministers have acted too slowly in seeking to combat the virus – the editor of the Lancet medical journal accused them of “playing roulette” with people’s lives"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-news-live-uk-cases-trump-us-travel-ban-europe-pandemic-delay-phase-a9396186.html
You might want to try to delete that, as well.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 03:21:29 pm by Sredni »
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Offline vad

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #185 on: March 12, 2020, 01:26:32 am »
At the end of last month I took a look at the US case count to try to get an idea of how quickly this disease would be spreading.  I just wanted to be able to make some plans regarding travel.  So, I watched the numbers from the worldometer website.  I found that the US case count doubled on a very regular pace.  From March 1 I started recording the number each day and plotting it.  It's amazing how predictible it has been.  Since March 1 in the US it has been very tightly tracking an exponential growth pattern.  The number of cases is doubling every 2.4 days.  On this growth path, the number of US cases will reach over 420,000 by the end of March.  However, in the US , bureaucratic and financial hurdles are resulting in very little testing being done.  So the actual number of cases is likely much higher than the available numbers.  If more extensive testing is done it will likely drive the numbers to go above the projection.  If significant actions are taken to slow the spread, the data will track below the curve.  So far, neither of these are seen in the data.

So, when will we see an inflection in the curve -- at the latest?  Epidemiologists are saying to expect 60% to 80% infection rate before herd immunity takes effect.  On the current growth path for the US, that will occur between April 21 and April 23.  But, considering that the case count is likely higher than we know and that fear will probably grip the population and policy leaders before that prompting them to take some actions to slow the spread, I suspect we'll see an inflection point in the US in mid April.  Unfortunately the inflection point will not be the peak.  I think it's safe to say this epidemic will be with us for more than the next couple of months.
The epidemic (or pandemic) is already out of control. It is spreading in communities at exponential rate. Such exponential spread can only stop when majority of the population (on the order of magnitude of 50%) gets immunity either through contracting the disease or through vaccination. The latter is out of the question (vaccine is at least 12-18 month behind). So the actual spread will continue until most people get infected.

As for tracking test results... In open countries, like the US, there is the limit on how many positive tests the country can report each day (determined by the number of available test kits, lab throughput, qualification criteria determined by bureaucrats, etc.).

For example, 2 weeks before now the US had limited ability to perform tests:  January through end of February they performed only ~1,500 tests in total in few CDC labs across the country, and that yielded few dozens domestic positive tests. Once million test kits were provide to health authorities of 50 states over the past few weeks, the number of positive tests in the US started climbing exponentially. This does not mean that there was no exponential community spread before the test kits were provide to states. The system was simply not able to gauge that spread with 1,500 tests they performed in 2 month.

Sooner or later the speed of the spread will outpace the current testing capacity in the US. The statistics will start flattening out in the US, but the exponential spread will continue.

As for authoritarian regimes - you simply cannot trust the numbers they produce. Recent figures from China are laughable, and they cannot be rationally explained. Another example is Russia. Russia has long history of manipulating its numbers. For example, in 2017 Russia reported 432 mortality case from flu and common cold. In the same year, CDC estimated mortality rate of 61,000 (95% CI 46K-95K) from flu in the US. Either vodka and cabbage are efficacious measured against flu, or Russian state-owned statistics agency spread misinformation. And, surprise surprise, the same agency reports laughable numbers of Covid-2019 cases in Russia now...
 
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Offline hamster_nz

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #186 on: March 12, 2020, 01:37:39 am »
The epidemic (or pandemic) is already out of control. It is spreading in communities at exponential rate. Such exponential spread can only stop when majority of the population (on the order of magnitude of 50%) gets immunity either through contracting the disease or through vaccination.

There is a third option.. change the environment to reduce transmission to less than one new case per infection, and wait for everybody to get better. The better you do this, the quicker it will drop.

Wash you hands, keep your distance from others, and stay at home if sick.

I'm sure you agree that it appears to have worked for China - they aren't vaccinated nor have 750M+ people been infected.

Quote
As for tracking test results... In open countries, like the US, there is the limit on how many positive tests the country can report each day (determined by the number of available test kits, lab throughput, qualification criteria determined by bureaucrats, etc.).

 :bullshit: - there is just a lack of willingness to do so. A resistance to the decentralization of power.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 01:42:36 am by hamster_nz »
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Offline vad

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #187 on: March 12, 2020, 01:48:04 am »
The epidemic (or pandemic) is already out of control. It is spreading in communities at exponential rate. Such exponential spread can only stop when majority of the population (on the order of magnitude of 50%) gets immunity either through contracting the disease or through vaccination.

There is a third option.. change the environment to reduce transmission to less than one new case per infection, and wait for everybody to get better. The better you do this, the quicker it will drop.

Wash you hands, keep your distance from others, and stay at home if sick.

I'm sure you agree that it appears to have worked for China - they aren't vaccinated nor have 750M+ people been infected.
Because of what we know about the virus (asymptomatic spread, and that the virus can survive for many days outside the host) - I don’t believe that R0 can be dropped below 1.0 by hygiene and social isolation measures alone.

As for China’s numbers - it’s plain BS. Unless entire China is locked up in quarantine (from Shanghai to the smallest village), I don’t believe in those numbers.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 01:49:36 am by vad »
 

Offline edy

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #188 on: March 12, 2020, 01:50:35 am »
It is because the majority of cases are misconstrued as a common cold or flu, and there are not enough testing kits available, that nobody can really know whether they actually DO have a common cold/flu (which has a 0.5% mortality or lower) or if they have COVID-19 (with it's 3%+ mortality). Therefore, community spread is inevitable if life goes on as usual. The majority of the population will continue to work through a cold and possibly a flu, spreading it to everyone else in their workplace, or students in school, going to social gatherings and so on.

One thing COVID-19 has demonstrated is that it is very contagious and while not particularly deadly (compared to SARS 10%, MERS 50%, Ebola 90% and so on) the fact that it can disseminate to so many people over a short rate of time, and has several times the death rate of the flu (although the number may be overblown because we don't include milder unknown cases), it can still be devastating to our healthcare systems. We already have 30,000 - 60,000 people die each year from the flu, despite vaccination attempts and only a 0.5% mortality (somewhere less than 1% and some say as little as 0.1%).

Now we have a virus that is known to be more deadly than flu by at least several times (estimates vary from 2-3x to over 10x) and absolutely no vaccine, no immunity, and added ON TOP OF all the other cold/flu viruses still out there. So we are battling multiple viruses and particularly nasty ones at that superimposed on each other. Yes the majority of people will be fine but those that aren't will completely overload our healthcare systems. To prevent the collateral damage and keep healthcare systems intact for all the other problems people face, these somewhat draconian measures are the only way to help delay/prevent the inevitable... so at least things "ease in" a little more slowly. Will it cause the "case growth rate" to plateau and reach <1.0x, probably not. But lower rate is better than higher.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 01:54:50 am by edy »
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Offline DrG

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #189 on: March 12, 2020, 02:26:09 am »
Today....
EU-US travel banned restricted for 30 Days.
NBA cancels all games after tonight until ?

Seems like it was just a few days ago, it was "I'm not worried at all" and "I've heard we will have a vaccine in 3-4 months".

I don't think it is panic at all, I think that denial and wishful thinking eventually gives way to the harshness of reality. Still, I am optimistic, I think that, in the US, by May, we will be seeing a very different picture.

Like you and everyone else, there are only a few things that I can do and not do, but I can assure you that I am going to hold those that I believe have performed in, what I can only describe as shamefully incompetent manner, accountable...in the voting booth.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 02:29:42 am by DrG »
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Offline james_s

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #190 on: March 12, 2020, 02:55:59 am »
If this panic keeps up, it won't be too long before we'll have an economic disaster bad enough that nobody will care about a virus anymore, they'll start taking any job they can get to put food on the table.
 

Online Bud

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #191 on: March 12, 2020, 03:15:38 am »
As for China’s numbers - it’s plain BS. Unless entire China is locked up in quarantine (from Shanghai to the smallest village), I don’t believe in those numbers.

Dear armchair foreign dictatorship governments expert,

can you fix the chaos and shit in your own backyard before embarking on a global war on reports from other countries?

For a reason I think you can't.
Facebook-free life and Rigol-free shack.
 
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Offline raptor1956

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #192 on: March 12, 2020, 03:27:49 am »
I wonder when the other shoe is going to drop in the USA and likely in many other nations that have dropped the ball on this virus.  We've been hearing about testing kits in the millions for a while now but still the number of people tested in the US in total is less than other parts of the world test in a day.  The lawyer at the center of the New Rochelle outbreak commuted to Manhattan on public transportation for days after being effected so it seems highly likely that NYC will see an outbreak far greater the New Rochelle.

The fact that face masks are hard to come by and that medical professionals are finding them hard to get is stark testimony to the shortsightedness of too many these days -- how is it that they have so little stock of items that are critical in times like this.  Sadly, the response was not ... we need more masks ASAP ...  it was ... you don't need them -- tell that to the Chinese.  When you lie to the public but do so for what seems to be a reasonable cause you are still lying to the public.  The idea that a virus that you get by breathing in exhaled droplets is unaffected by wearing is mask is ludicrous and those that say that lose there credibility.  This is not the time for medical professionals to lose credibility.

In western nations where money matters more than life there are many workers that either go to work or go without a paycheck and risk losing there job -- for them the decision is simple ... if I'm still ambulatory I'm going to work.  Business owners are not inclined to increase paid time off, even big businesses worth a trillion.  If people at risk keep going to work when them should stay home because staying home means losing a paycheck or a job then the idea of social isolation is but a joke.

But as bad as all that is the fact that we may well be at this place for 6 months or even more than a year will be a test of the planet right up there with the World Wars, indeed, this is a third World War of sorts.


Brian
 

Offline blueskull

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #193 on: March 12, 2020, 03:31:52 am »
As for China’s numbers - it’s plain BS. Unless entire China is locked up in quarantine (from Shanghai to the smallest village), I don’t believe in those numbers.

You are full of it. If the numbers are really high, Chinese government won't allow its massive population to go back to work.
I just spent my yesterday in HQB, and it was packed with people. You do have to show that controversial QR code which encodes your location for the past month, and if your temperature is good and the code is green, everyone is allowed into any building.
The subway is crowd enough to crush people into pancakes. That I learned the hard way on line 4.
 

Offline DrG

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #194 on: March 12, 2020, 03:41:38 am »
If this panic keeps up, it won't be too long before we'll have an economic disaster bad enough that nobody will care about a virus anymore, they'll start taking any job they can get to put food on the table.

I'm not trying to pick a fight or even be horribly contentious, but what is panic and what is an[IN]excusable lack of planning, implementation and clear and concise direction?

To me, buying up sanitizer is NOT panic, it is entirely rational. Communicating sound changes in "public" hygiene is not panic. Explaining why washing your hands is so important, is not panic. Trying to force people to not touch their face, and thinking that is going to make the difference - is poor messaging - especially since we can all watch video of the people telling us not to touch your face actually touching their face as they are telling us not to do so (it is really hard for humans not to touch their face and that is hardly news).

Botching up testing instead of ramping up capability in the FREAKING MONTH that we had and after earlier experience (SARS) [https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/the-facts-on-coronavirus-testing/ ]is not panic, it is a failure in performance.

Botching up the messaging around testing and botching up anything remotely like a reasonable communication of facts, and instead changing the message evry few days, contradicting what was stated earlier and doing it over and over again is not, in itself panic, it creates confusion and chaos and.....panic.

Planning on the fly for something like this is not going to cut it.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 05:06:47 am by DrG »
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Offline hamster_nz

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #195 on: March 12, 2020, 03:52:06 am »
If you are interested in looking at the family tree of the COVID-19 causing virus, along with where it came from or spread to then have I been shown the site for you!

https://nextstrain.org/ncov



« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 03:54:05 am by hamster_nz »
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Offline VK3DRB

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #196 on: March 12, 2020, 03:56:37 am »
If this panic keeps up, it won't be too long before we'll have an economic disaster bad enough that nobody will care about a virus anymore, they'll start taking any job they can get to put food on the table.

We can blame ourselves. For two reasons:

1. We now have a supply problem because we exploited cheap labour and slave labour in China for years so we can get more stuff for less money and no conscience. I try to buy Australian made wherever possible. But with electronic components, that is impossible because nothing is made here. Hard to believe we once made transistors and 7400 series IC's right here in Melbourne. https://www.radiomuseum.org/dsp_hersteller_detail.cfm?Company_id=14523

2. We were warned for the last 10 years by scientists that a global pandemic was imminent, and that global travel would be a major factor for a perfect storm. Almost no-one listened. This virus should be of no surprise really. Its a bit bloody late now. I listened to the pandemic warnings, hence I have plenty of masks I bought FIVE YEARS AGO.  It was our Prime Minister Scott Morrison's stupid comments that triggered the panic buying of toilet paper and other necessities.
 

Offline blueskull

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #197 on: March 12, 2020, 04:13:57 am »
1. We now have a supply problem because we exploited cheap labour and slave labour in China for years so we can get more stuff for less money and no conscience.

What slave labor? I'm not aware of any other than mandatory labor in jails, which they get paid significantly less than open labor market.
 

Offline raptor1956

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #198 on: March 12, 2020, 04:45:31 am »
1. We now have a supply problem because we exploited cheap labour and slave labour in China for years so we can get more stuff for less money and no conscience.

What slave labor? I'm not aware of any other than mandatory labor in jails, which they get paid significantly less than open labor market.


Interestingly, by some accounts there are more slaves in the USA today than during the height of slavery.  Many are domestic workers working in the homes of the wealthy, many are sex workers tricked into it, many others are forced to work in small and medium sized business -- many coming from China but Central America as well.  So, comments about slavery in China seem a bit misplaced when the western world is not without its issues.


Brian
 
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Offline blueskull

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #199 on: March 12, 2020, 04:47:47 am »
Interestingly, by some accounts there are more slaves in the USA today than during the height of slavery.

Google H1B slave and find a new world ;).
 


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