General > General Technical Chat
Covid 19 virus
Rick Law:
--- Quote from: Rick Law on April 01, 2020, 06:10:51 am ---...
...
USA wide is just over two weeks but differs greatly depending on State. According to University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projection, the USA cumulative is April 16 peak.
By state:
Vermont, NY, NJ are the earliest peaking April 9;
Michigan, Connecticut, Louisiana peaks April 10;
skipping to number 23...
Georgia, Mississippi,North Carolina peaks April 22.
Last to peak are Maryland on May 14 and Virginia on May 17.
So, we will be sweating it out on different dates...
--- End quote ---
I am "disowning" the numbers I quoted in the reply above... The numbers were quoted from Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), I am not longer confident in the numbers.
At time time I quoted the numbers, NJ (where I am) deaths-per-day projection was off by 9: 59 projected verse 66 actual and within the uncertainty bar. The peak projected is 104 deaths-per-day on April 9. The uncertainty bar range at peak is 58 to 142.
Today, I check the numbers: 4/2 deaths projected was 66 but actual was 202. We are not even half-way up the projected-curve to the peak of 104 (142 at max of uncertainty), we are already at (about) 2x the projected peak, and at 1.4x the max-uncertainty-bar peak.
Looking at local paper's the by-county numbers, it was a general increase instead of one-off sudden rise at a particular locale or due to a particular event. One event they did predict for 4/1/2020 that might have an effect - that NJ hospital beds needed would exceed available on 4/1. If that is where the projection went wrong, they way under estimated the impact of the event.
For right now I have no confident in the projection. I will however continue to compare their projections verses actual. As they update the projection, may be it can return to be a useful tool.
Cerebus:
--- Quote from: coppice on April 02, 2020, 11:41:24 pm ---We are reaching the point where the oldest people you know were probably born in the era of antibiotics. My grandparents could tell me horrible stories of healthy school friends who were happily playing cricket, got a minor injury, and were dead a few days later from a runaway infection.
--- End quote ---
Yeah. If you say that someone would have had to have been old enough when antibiotics became generally available (1944-45) to recall tales of death from common infections earlier - lets say 14-15 years old - that would put them born in 1930, which would make them at least 90 years old now. That's 0.8% of the population here in the UK.
DrG:
Bill Gates interview by Trevor Noah
APR 02, 2020
http://www.cc.com/episodes/iecnjn/the-daily-show-with-trevor-noah-april-2--2020---bill-gates-season-25-ep-25083
Interview is at 7.08-29.04
This is the only link I know about. "US-centric" to some degree, but not at all completely so. Worth watching in my opinion.
Electro Detective:
--- Quote from: blueskull on April 03, 2020, 03:35:01 am ---
China has started tracking down infected people with zero symptoms.
Today Chinese CDC has reported 2 confirmed new cases and 60 tested positive cases with zero symptoms, scattered around the country.
It seems like there MIGHT be a second wave in China. It took Wuhan about 3 weeks to go into full eruption mode, so presumable zero symptom cases can't be all isolated from society, China has less than 3 weeks to roll vaccines.
So far zero symptom cases have been considered much less contagious, but nevertheless all you need is a spark to light a forest.
--- End quote ---
:-// Are they using ancient magic or The Force to track them down ?
or deploying 'Minority Report' and 'ANON' movie tech to know in advance who is going to get infected with 'C' ? :o
Chinese CDC could be talking through their nether regions for all we know to justify their pay and existence, and or trying to flog MIC vaccines that may contain placebo grade ingredients,
money for jam from paranoid injected suckers that if they don't get the sniffles during a 'flu period' or palmdemic they believe the vaccine must be working = :palm:
These 'mutating' reports from China are getting hard to believe, and smell like an excuse to pump more vaccines into everyone,
adding to previous vaccines that already mess with peoples natural resistance to polluted air, unprotected or 'wrong way go back!' intercourse :scared:
and greasy shopping trolley handles ::)
BTW: how far off are most members here from bankruptcy, unemployment, and dim prospects for future recovery if this global fiasCo continues for a few more weeks?
i.e. if they drag it out for months, most of you will wish you took your chances with 'C" either being a real threat or engineered money shifting panic job (again..)
and take a coin toss gamble whether you got the Fear Flu sniffles or not :popcorn:
dietert1:
If they had developed sufficient test capacity they could have tested thousands of healthy people and found some of them positive. I think this is what will happen in any country after passing the peak.
It confirms what we already know: This virus is more like AIDS. Apparently healthy people infecting others without knowing. This is the known reason why it is so much worse than flu. We will probably all need to carry masks very soon in order to loosen the lockdown.
Regards, Dieter
PS: Since i am into patient monitoring (pulse oximetry), my business will rather increase than decrease. But who knows.
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