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Covid 19 virus
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not1xor1:

--- Quote from: DrG on April 03, 2020, 05:04:23 pm ---Been thinking about this for weeks (I am sure I was not alone) and am now reading it in Mass Media. How long before we see immunity certificates? Don't know, maybe 6 weeks in the US. I think that we will see fakes a few minutes later, or maybe well before.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/health/immunity-passport-coronavirus-lockdown-intl/index.html

--- End quote ---

there are 2 problems
1) we are not yet sure (there are still some doubts) once you got past the disease you're immune
2) how good are those tests? Even 0.1% of false positives may get infected and start a new wave of pandemic

probably those certified people should also be regularly (even group test) tested for virus activity to reduce any further risks
Cerebus:

--- Quote from: Siwastaja on April 03, 2020, 07:30:23 pm ---https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/


This way of presenting the statistics helps visualize the deflection point.

(With that, countries can't be compared at the relative point where the deflection happens, because the axes show absolute cases, not cases per population, so small countries appear to more left than larger countries. Yet, you can easily visualize the deflection point, and also see the changes in testing procedures (sudden jump downward, then back to the original slope.)

--- End quote ---

We've got to be a bit careful of scaling by population, as that can distort or misrepresent the situation in other ways.

One example. Consider two populations identical except that, one has 10,000 people, one has 1,000,000 people, both being infected with a disease with the characteristics of Covid-19 by a single 'patient zero'. For the first few days and weeks they will have identical numbers of infected, dead, recovered etc. Once the 10,000 person country has reached a point where effects show of 'proportion of population affected' show up, only then are the characteristics of the small and large population infection statistics going to diverge. The small population will show slowing while the large population will continue to grow at an unencumbered rate until it too hits the point where 'proportion of population' effects begin to show.

Instinct suggests to me that scaling by logn population (n to be determined) might be a better way of doing it as the other processes involved are exponential ones BUT I have not thought it through in detail so I may be talking out of my arse.
not1xor1:

--- Quote from: Cerebus on April 03, 2020, 06:25:12 pm ---
--- Quote from: vad on April 03, 2020, 06:07:01 pm ---https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html

Predictive epidemiological models based on data from China are garbage. People’s Republic has been manipulating its Covid-19 statistics.

--- End quote ---

Of course the source of this is impeccable. After all, the CIA have never been known to distort the truth or mislead people for their own political ends. Glad we're finally getting data from such an honest, reliable, trustworthy source that has never been implicated in murder, torture, or commercial drug smuggling to illicitly fund a revolution in another country, let alone misinformation campaigns. Glad we've got that straight.

Why would you think I was being sarcastic? A bunch of spies and manipulators are the obvious choice to turn to for epidemiological data. There's no possibility that they might be trying to sew some kind of story that puts a country that they regard as political enemies in a bad light.

--- End quote ---

the truth is that you can trust neither of them
probably we will have to wait a few years for more reliable data
Cerebus:

--- Quote from: not1xor1 on April 03, 2020, 07:58:14 pm ---there are 2 problems
1) we are not yet sure (there are still some doubts) once you got past the disease you're immune

--- End quote ---

That is so outside the normal patterns of disease and immunity that very strong evidence would be required to support that idea. Absent that very strong evidence this out to be treated as highly, highly, highly improbable.
Kilrah:

--- Quote from: bd139 on April 03, 2020, 05:25:37 pm ---I think I’ve had it and am recovering still. It’s fucking horrible.

--- End quote ---
I've problably had it but in a very mild form, basically a bad cold but not quite as bad as normal flu.

Reason I expect it was that is that a friend got hit pretty hard (2 trips to hospital) and we had met a few days before.
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