General > General Technical Chat
Covid 19 virus
metrologist:
--- Quote from: whalphen on March 12, 2020, 03:18:40 pm ---Another day, another data point as the virus steadily marches up the exponential curve here in the US. As of yesterday fear has suddenly prompted policy makers into action. There are new international travel restrictions. Universities are closing. Grade schools are winding down activities and telling parents to prepare for closures. Finally we have policy makers responding. Unfortunately, it may be too late. There are still lots of misleading instructions and advice being put out by community, press, and government leaders. Still many are saying the risk is low. Clearly few understand what 'exponential' means. If they did, they would see that on the current growth track the spread could result in about a million deaths in the US by about 30 days from now.
--- End quote ---
Your chart is interesting. I think we are using the same data.
ebastler:
--- Quote from: metrologist on March 12, 2020, 04:20:23 pm ---Your chart is interesting. I think we are using the same data.
--- End quote ---
I would recommend against combining a linear and a log scale in the same chart. And I certainly recommend against showing a spline interpolation through set of discrete datapoints, even more so when done without showing the underlying datapoints themselves. That (a) suggests a resolution which is not there, and (b) suggests spurious dips and peaks, which are artefacts from the interpolation.
Electronics content: Rigol is apparently guilty of the latter sin in their scopes. ;)
whalphen:
--- Quote ---Your chart is interesting. I think we are using the same data.
--- End quote ---
I'm using the data from the worldometer website. We have to take the data with a grain of salt because we know it's understated due to limited testing. But to get a glimpse of what's to come, it does the job. (Though I sometimes wish I hadn't looked and seen such a frightening picture.)
Those who criticize the chart are missing the point. This data is publicly available and anyone can use it to make their own projection in whatever format they prefer. It doesn't change the fact that spread is exponential and many people may suffer and/or die.
We all need to recognize what's coming and do what we can to protect our families, communities, and ourselves. Our only control over this plague is to slow the spread -- which will reduce the strain on health services and, thus, save lives. Each and every one of us can take actions to slow the spread. Trying to assign blame will do nothing to slow the spread. Cooperation, improved hygienic practices and social isolation are our greatest tools at this point.
Simon:
Sadly governments are doing very badly. In the UK it has been announced that we are moving from the "containment" stage to the "delay" stage. Well fuck me if someone can tell me what he "containment" plan was other than to do nothing I'd be very grateful! So far as i can tell it was do nothing but ask people to stop panic buying loo roll. Public Health England, the people telling the government how to stop this are having a mass gathering of employees from more than one location for training. I mean are we stupid or something? apparently yes!
ebastler:
--- Quote from: whalphen on March 12, 2020, 05:24:31 pm ---Those who criticize the chart are missing the point. This data is publicly available and anyone can use it to make their own projection in whatever format they prefer. It doesn't change the fact that spread is exponential and many people may suffer and/or die.
--- End quote ---
I was only criticizing metrologist's way of plotting the data. Didn't mean to question your point, and I don't think I said anything to that effect.
I have been looking at the German data in much the same way, and have pointed out the (so far) unmitigated exponential growth in a couple of posts here. In Germany, the rate has even been slightly higher -- doubling pretty exactly every 2.0 days. No idea whether that difference is due to a higher rate of tested and detected cases, a significant influx of infected travellers from Italy, or other reasons.
The conclusion seems clear: Unless we manage to fundamentally change people's behaviors, and hence slow down the spread, we are in for a collapse of the health systems.
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