General > General Technical Chat
Covid 19 virus
not1xor1:
--- Quote from: imo on March 11, 2020, 07:35:47 pm ---https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
--- End quote ---
We now know that the virus had already made a few victims there (Bergamo and Codogno areas) before anybody noticed that.
Just too many people do not make the due vaccination against ordinary flue so at first they thought it was just that, ordinary flue.
In the meantime the virus had already taken foot spreading to many unknowingly people.
In Italy, we now have more than 15000 cases.
Since they are testing just people who shows symptoms, that likely means that there are already 50k-200k cases who got the virus and have never shown any symptom or are yet at a very early stage of the disease.
Average incubation time is 5.1 days, while 14 days of quarantine covers just 99% of cases (as recently reported by John Hopkins University).
So we have to wait a few days to see if the measures taken so far are working.
While COVID-19 is not as bad as SARS or MERS, it will kill many people and will cause severe problems to the economy.
It will be fine if we can learn from that (at a regional level, e.g. EU or better at the whole world one) and get ready for the next wave.
whalphen:
--- Quote ---The conclusion seems clear: Unless we manage to fundamentally change people's behaviors, and hence slow down the spread, we are in for a collapse of the health systems.
--- End quote ---
It's interesting that I've seen very few projections on the internet and none in the press. I think humans, in general, have a hard time appreciating the implication of exponential spread. The more we can give people a glimpse of what's to come, the more willing they may be to change behaviors. And there's really only two things they need to do, or even can do to slow the spread: 1) wash their hands frequently, 2) go home and stay there.
not1xor1:
--- Quote from: donotdespisethesnake on March 11, 2020, 08:00:44 pm ---
--- Quote from: not1xor1 on March 11, 2020, 06:58:20 pm ---by May it the virus should be much weaker.
--- End quote ---
Snopes rates that as "unproven". https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/coronavirus-warm-weather/
--- End quote ---
I'm not Trump, but you do behave like him. I never wrote that the virus will magically disappear in May.
It is high likely that COVID-19 is here to stay, together with the other coronaviruses which cause flue-like symptoms since centuries:
- Human Coronavirus 229E (HCoV-229E)
- Human Coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43)
- Human Coronavirus NL63 (HCoV-NL63)
- Human Coronavirus HKU1 (HCoV-HFU1)
By May the virus should be weaker, as shown in studies regarding the SARS virus, but I'm afraid dr Zhong Nanshan might be wrong pretending it will completely disappear (like SARS) in June.
It is a pandemy. I suspect it will just spread in the other hemisphere and then come back here next winter.
not1xor1:
--- Quote from: Cerebus on March 11, 2020, 08:44:05 pm ---"The virus should be much weaker" and 'the virus is less likely to be transmitted in warmer weather' - the latter being what Snopes considers - are not the same thing.
--- End quote ---
The integrity of the capsid in the air is strongly related to both temperature and RH. So in the Death Valley, although the temperature is quite high it might survive a bit longer than near the beach during later spring in a temperate climate. :)
--- Quote ---There's a real possibility that the virus in circulation may be less virulent by May by a combination of two reasons: (1) Coronaviruses are highly mutable, there's a very high probability of new variants emerging during a pandemic, (2) viruses/bacteria/parasites that kill their hosts are less likely to spread than less lethal variants. This was actually seen, and confirmed, during one of the earlier flu pandemics (I don't offhand remember which one) where later in the pandemic the original flu variant died off and a mutated, less virulent, variant continued to spread - the death rate fell while infection rates continued at the same level. Although this is a real possibility, it's not a effect that any plan to control the disease ought to rely on.
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You're probably referring to H1N1 AKA 2009 pig flue. Yes, when a virus is too good at killing its host it has less chances to spread around.
whalphen:
At the current rate of spread in the US, herd immunity will slow the growth before the summer arrives. Experts are advising that at 60%-80% infection rate, there is enough immunity to slow the spread in the population. The current growth pattern in the US will put us at that point in late April.
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