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Covid 19 virus
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SiliconWizard:

--- Quote from: imo on March 13, 2020, 05:41:31 pm ---With covid19 there is heavy underreporting, imho.
All statistics I've seen are based on "positive tested" vs. mortality.
The number of "tested" is only a small fraction of all infected.
You have to know the number of "infected" vs. fatalities.

--- End quote ---

Yes, the CFR is not very meaningful at this point. The detected cases are still very few, and biased towards cases with already heavy symptoms, which is likely to bias the CFR at this point.
Many hospitals just don't have the means of testing more people anyway. Those are not instant tests.
iMo:
Sure, the number of "tested" is say 10ppm of the entire population (in Europe).
From that tested is X "positive".
From that X "positive" is Y "deaths".
Doing fatality rate calculation based on X an Y is  :bullshit: , because "infected" is KK times more than "tested".

After the pandemic "finishes" you may do a research - you have to check the population on the covid19 antibodies - and you will get the number of "infected" Z.
Then you may do the "fatality rate" calculation based on Z and Y.
paulca:
I wonder what effect vaping has on it.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2135271/

It mentions antimicrobial positives, but not, without access to the full article antiviral, though they do mention an influenza virus test.
ebastler:

--- Quote from: VK3DRB on March 13, 2020, 11:57:20 am ---Would having a nip of grappa or whisky (both very high in ethanol content) be a good backup [...]?
Could a glass of wine after each meal sanitise the mouth, the gullet and maybe even the stomach contents?

--- End quote ---


--- Quote from: paulca on March 13, 2020, 06:16:00 pm ---I wonder what effect vaping has on it.

--- End quote ---

Now that we have hypothesized about potential health benefits from vaping and drinking alcohol, may I propose a review of the anti-viral effects of sex, drugs, and rock'n'roll?  ;)
iMo:

--- Quote from: blueskull on March 13, 2020, 05:54:56 pm ---
--- Quote from: imo on March 13, 2020, 05:41:31 pm ---The number of "tested" is only a small fraction of all infected.

--- End quote ---
If there is still a great risk of hidden infected cases, Chinese government wouldn't have lifted lock down within Hubei province.

--- End quote ---
The "infected cases" are all those with mild or none symptoms, or with symptoms similar to flu treated at home with aspirin. Also people who hide the symptoms. All those "infected" will recover within a week or two without be registered by the authorities. The only sign of covid19 infection are the antibodies in their blood.
For example small children do not show symptoms even infected, experts say. With 300 million children in your country you may have 300 million "infected" and not registered in any statistics (an example only).
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