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Covid 19 virus
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Tomorokoshi:
I'm not panic buying.

I'm expeditiously purchasing.
Cerebus:

--- Quote from: Tomorokoshi on March 14, 2020, 05:07:07 pm ---I'm not panic buying.

I'm expeditiously purchasing.

--- End quote ---

Ah, that's one of those irregular verbs isn't it:


* I expeditiously purchase
* You hoard
* He's being prosecuted for looting
Kilrah:
Friend just sent some photos from Spain, all shelves empty.

Here while we have pretty strong measures in place (no gatherings >50 people, schools, cinemas etc closed etc) at the shop it's a day like any other.
not1xor1:

--- Quote from: donotdespisethesnake on March 13, 2020, 12:53:45 pm ---
--- Quote from: not1xor1 on March 12, 2020, 07:04:53 pm ---By May the virus should be weaker, as shown in studies regarding the SARS virus,

--- End quote ---

So "should be weaker" according to studies of a different virus. You can play semantics all you like, doesn't change anything.

Sorry, but the meme that "the virus will reduce by itself in time" is just bullshit, people are just using it to justify not doing anything. The only reduction effects will be herd immunity, when sufficient people have been infected.

--- End quote ---

Doing nothing is the most stupid thing to do (that is just the strategy chosen by mr Bor-ass-hole Johnson).
Here in Italy we are following WHO recommendations, Spain is doing the same.
During the last week I got out just once with an FFP3 mask and gloves to buy food.
I even started to wear a mask (unfortunately I have just one left from the stock I bought one year ago) and gloves a few days before the government enforced the quarantine.
We'll have to wait a couple of weeks to see any result. I just hope we'll not have to face any new cases coming from UK, US or other "smart" countries.

In any case there are good chances that the virus will get both less lethal and that hot and wet weather will degrade the protein shell more quickly. That's a matter of fact, not political propaganda.
-1) less lethal because it is like evolution works: a virus strain that causes less damage to the host has more chances to spread around and in the long run prevails on the other strains.
-2) a few tests on COVID-19 survival in free air and on surfaces have already been done
not1xor1:

--- Quote from: thinkfat on March 13, 2020, 01:38:37 pm ---
--- Quote from: not1xor1 on March 11, 2020, 06:58:20 pm ---[...] by May it the virus should be much weaker.

--- End quote ---

Recent studies suggest otherwise. In fact experts over here expect the climax in infections by June/July, in high summer. Hence all effort right now concentrates on slowing down the spread to a rate that can be handled by our medical system.

The consensus seems to be that the case fatality will be quite low if we manage to not overflow the intensive care capabilities. If you look at China, the high fatality numbers are dominated by Hubei province, where especially in Wuhan the intensive care capacities were overwhelmed. In the rest of China, the case fatality rate was much lower.

In Germany right now we have over 3000 reported cases and 7 deaths (0.2%) but that's overly optimistic right now, IMHO. Let's see how the numbers develop in the coming two weeks, we know that fatality trails reported by about two weeks.

--- End quote ---

I've been misunderstood. I didn't mean to understate the danger. I think the virus will not disappear, but will get less lethal with time.
So many deaths, both in China and here in Italy come from the fact that at first the virus spread unnoticed in several hospitals.
And yes, unfortunately it is still quite dangerous. Today it killed a 47 year old man with no other pathology.

And if you do not take any severe measures, there in Germany, positive cases will grow very quickly.
Even with all the measures taken here in Italy, we'll probably have to wait 1-2 weeks before seeing a decrease in the number of new cases (we have already some small improvement in the areas where it started).
At the end we'll probably have more cases and deaths than in China.
UK instead is on the road of suicide. Unless they do not change quickly they'll get one million of deaths or even more. Herd immunity... that's bullshit... that's dr Mengele stuff, unacceptable in a modern democracy.
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