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Covid 19 virus
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not1xor1:

--- Quote from: Stray Electron on March 14, 2020, 09:04:40 pm ---  We went shopping here yesterday and except for hand wipes and TP we didn't have any problems getting what we wanted.  The store was busy but no worse than when all of the local university students come back from any of their breaks.  We had to stand in line for perhaps 30 seconds to get to the check out counter but that was it.

      Since the theme parks and the schools closed there are a lot of people out and about, mostly out jogging, walking their dogs, or working on projects around their houses. I just came back from going out and buying another Oxy/Acetylene torch with tanks. I'm going back to buy a MIG welder and two tanks tomorrow.  Life is good, at the moment!

--- End quote ---

here? Where? You didn't set your country code  :)
vad:

--- Quote from: not1xor1 on March 14, 2020, 09:21:52 pm ---That's not a theory, that's how life usually works.

--- End quote ---
The keyword here is “usually”.

If the host infects other people long before the virus kills the host (and even before the host feels any symptoms, forcing him/her into isolation), then a less deadly strain will not have evolutionary advantage over the original strain.
iMo:

--- Quote from: not1xor1 on March 14, 2020, 09:21:52 pm ---That's not a theory, that's how life usually works.
AFAIK COVID-19 spread so much not because of the long spreading time before evident symptoms, but because many people did not have any noticeable symptoms or just thought they got ordinary flue.

--- End quote ---
Sure. The real number of infected today is 20-100x higher than reported in TV or on the web as "confirmed positive" (155k "confirmed" as of today - that number is about those "tested positive" only, it is NOT about "really infected").
Any expert will tell you the real numbers you will get only after the pandemic finishes. The authorities will provide a world-wide population sampling (of cov19 antibodies in the blood serum) and based on that you'll get the number of "infected". My bet is the fatality ratio will be lower than with flu (FR=deaths/infected).
not1xor1:

--- Quote from: vad on March 14, 2020, 09:49:57 pm ---
--- Quote from: not1xor1 on March 14, 2020, 09:21:52 pm ---That's not a theory, that's how life usually works.

--- End quote ---
The keyword here is “usually”.

If the host infects other people long before the virus kills the host (and even before the host feels any symptoms, forcing him/her into isolation), then a less deadly strain will not have evolutionary advantage over the original strain.

--- End quote ---

Evolution doesn't work that way: even a bit better is enough.

And usually is not a keyword, it is just like science works, it is all a matter of probability and self-correction in a feedback loop, there is nobody suggesting any truth from some mountain-top or whispering in the ear of some self proclaimed prophet.

In any case apart from the viruses biology (some of them is even useful against antibiotic resistant bacteria) I'm in no way promoting laissez-faire.
We are dealing with the life of real people and the most sensible thing is just to follow WHO guidelines (like China, Italy, Spain), because:

-1) even if you are young and healthy and so there are little chances you'll die of covid-19, little is not zero
-2) even if you are young and healthy you could transmit the disease to other people who could die
-3) herd immunity with 60% of positive cases (the proclaimed goal of the British government) is pure bullshit and will make people die by the hundredth of thousand in UK alone (if I'm not wrong, deaths there just doubled in a single day... so according to that trend in a couple of weeks they might get there).
vad:

--- Quote from: not1xor1 on March 14, 2020, 09:21:52 pm ---That's because in those countries, even decades ago when I spent a few years there, air conditioned is widely spread and it offers the ideal conditions for the virus survival and spread (cold and dry air).

--- End quote ---
I lived in Singapore for decade. Air conditioning means 24-26C ambient temperature and 60-80% humidity in that country. It is not that you can get dry air. Still, most Singaporeans do not use air conditioning at their HDB flats, and large number of local businesses don’t use air conditioning either. In less prosperous neighboring countries that I listed, the A/C prevalence is much lower than in the rich city-state.
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