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Covid 19 virus
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Stray Electron:

--- Quote from: not1xor1 on March 14, 2020, 09:24:00 pm ---

here? Where? You didn't set your country code  :)

--- End quote ---

   Presently just outside of Orlando, Florida, USA in a town called "Christmas".
Sredni:

--- Quote from: imo on March 14, 2020, 09:15:50 pm ---The experts know already the XX% of the population will certainly acquire the virus this year. The Chinese and other statistics show ~80% of cases are with none or mild symptoms. With sufficient treatment of the difficult cases, under "normally" working hospital care, they can master it without more fatalities than with flu. That is what UK and Germany (and others) are targeting, imho.

--- End quote ---


--- Quote ---Any expert will tell you the real numbers you will get only after the pandemic finishes. The authorities will provide a world-wide population sampling (of cov19 antibodies in the blood serum) and based on that you'll get the number of "infected". My bet is the fatality ratio will be lower than with flu (FR=deaths/infected).

--- End quote ---

In one cemetery of the  Italian city of Bergamo they buried 90 bodies in the last two weeks. Normally the number of burials is 120. Per year. The obituary pages in the local newspaper went from 1 page to 10 pages.
Just like the flu. Keep saying that.

You will sing another tune in two weeks time.

FYI: in the region of Veneto they made 20 thoudand tests. Only a small percentage turned out positive.
Where are all the asymptomatic carriers your 'hunch' requires?

EDIT: they are reaching ICU saturation in these very days. So, no, they were not left to die outside an ICU.
And, unless you expect covid-19 to enable time travel, there is a bit of a problem in assuming that most of the population got it and had the time to move from incubation to getting rid of the virus without having any critical case.
james_s:

--- Quote from: Sredni on March 14, 2020, 11:59:03 pm ---In one cemetery of the  Italian city of Bergamo they buried 90 bodies in the last two weeks. Normally the number of burials is 120. Per year. The obituary pages in the local newspaper went from 1 page to 10 pages.
Just like the flu. Keep saying that.

--- End quote ---


That still doesn't really tell us anything conclusive. Was that region a hotspot for infections? Is it an area where a lot of people who are older or in poor health go to retire? 90 people in two weeks sounds like a lot but there must be many thousands of people who die every day. We don't know how many of those people died of Covid-19, and of those who did, how many of them were on the brink and would have died naturally within the next few months either way. I think we'll need to wait a few months to see what happens, either way I think it's a given we should take steps to not spread it, but if this panic continues nobody is going to care about the virus anymore because we'll all be looking for any job we can get just to put food on the table. To prevent a few thousand people dying of illness we could have 10 or more times that dying because they're homeless, can't afford food or medicine.

And for all the fuss and panic, does anyone here personally know anyone who died?
edy:
So the novel coronavirus is NOT like a flu. For one, it seems to be gradual over a few days and then develop into ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome). That is what kills people. And unlike the flu, which kills through allowing secondary bacterial infections to set in (which can be treated with antibiotics), the coronavirus overwhelms the lungs directly. Therefore the only way to reduce death is have respirators around and lots of them. It is also more contagious and the numbers also bear out that mortality is higher. Estimates in the 2-3% versus 0.1% for flu.

There is no reason to panic but because early and drastic intervention is needed to stop the rate of transmission and reduce new case count, that is the only way to keep our hospitals from getting over-saturated in cases which ultimately will be unable to treat because of lack of ventilators. All of this is to "widen and prolong" the bell curve of infection to keep under the threshold of what our health systems can care for. Nobody wants a spike (narrow tall bell curve) which will result in millions of people being sick simultaneously. We will just run out of hospital beds, machines and ventilators and many people who could otherwise be saved will die from this stupid reason.

Cerebus:

--- Quote from: Stray Electron on March 14, 2020, 11:35:23 pm ---
--- Quote from: not1xor1 on March 14, 2020, 09:24:00 pm ---

here? Where? You didn't set your country code  :)

--- End quote ---

   Presently just outside of Orlando, Florida, USA in a town called "Christmas".

--- End quote ---

So presumably you have very regular, but very disappointing sex life?  :)
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