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Covid 19 virus

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thinkfat:

--- Quote from: SiliconWizard on March 16, 2020, 11:33:10 am ---
--- Quote from: not1xor1 on March 16, 2020, 09:23:05 am ---
--- Quote from: SiliconWizard on March 16, 2020, 02:15:03 am ---Yeah, since big malls and amusement parks are closing, people are trying the outdoors, which is not a bad thing in itself. They'll have to try wild nature though, because typical crowded outdoors such as beaches will be temporarily banned too.

Even wild nature may be a problem soon. Does anyone know if the virus can be transmitted to any other species?

--- End quote ---

so far I read about a dog in Hong Kong that tested positive, but there is no report of pet-human transmission
BTW significant viral load was found in dogs during Ebola epidemic but they didn't find any evidence of transmission to humans

--- End quote ---

That's interesting. If an animal is infected, especially a pet (that people are very likely to get close to), how can it not happen?

--- End quote ---

It's not like the virus is automatically oozing out of every pore of the dog. If it's just in certain organs or in the blood stream, that's nothing you'd usually get in contact to. If it's in a dogs' saliva, that'd be something else.

SiliconWizard:

--- Quote from: thinkfat on March 16, 2020, 11:51:53 am ---
--- Quote from: SiliconWizard on March 16, 2020, 11:33:10 am ---
--- Quote from: not1xor1 on March 16, 2020, 09:23:05 am ---
--- Quote from: SiliconWizard on March 16, 2020, 02:15:03 am ---Yeah, since big malls and amusement parks are closing, people are trying the outdoors, which is not a bad thing in itself. They'll have to try wild nature though, because typical crowded outdoors such as beaches will be temporarily banned too.

Even wild nature may be a problem soon. Does anyone know if the virus can be transmitted to any other species?

--- End quote ---

so far I read about a dog in Hong Kong that tested positive, but there is no report of pet-human transmission
BTW significant viral load was found in dogs during Ebola epidemic but they didn't find any evidence of transmission to humans

--- End quote ---

That's interesting. If an animal is infected, especially a pet (that people are very likely to get close to), how can it not happen?

--- End quote ---

It's not like the virus is automatically oozing out of every pore of the dog. If it's just in certain organs or in the blood stream, that's nothing you'd usually get in contact to. If it's in a dogs' saliva, that'd be something else.

--- End quote ---

I don't know what would differ exactly from humans as to how the virus can propagate, so I'd be interested in more details. Maybe it just doesn't infect/ and thus get through their respiratory system at all?

Leo Bodnar:
Just a back of the fag packet scribble.
Leo

Siwastaja:

--- Quote from: Leo Bodnar on March 16, 2020, 12:54:43 pm ---Just a back of the fag packet scribble.
Leo

--- End quote ---

Let's go further:

Probability of infection while in the store with the virus (keeping a meter of distance, washing hands, etc., rough estimate): 10%
Probability of getting infected per store visit 4.51%
Duration of the epidemic (estimate): 8 weeks

Number of visits to the store per week (case 1): 3
Number of visits to the store during epidemic (case 1): 24
Probability of getting infected by shopping (case 1): 1-(1-0.0451)^24 = 67%

Number of visits to the store per week (case 2, a semi-"hoarder" like me): 1
Number of visits to the store during epidemic (case 2): 8
Probability of getting infected by shopping (case 2): 1-(1-0.0451)^8 = 31%

Number of visits to the store per week (case 3, a prepared survivalist): 0
Number of visits to the store during epidemic (case 3): 0
Probability of getting infected by shopping (case 3): 0

(Still a demonstration of bag-of-the-envelope calculation. Might be off by an order of magnitude.)

DrG:
I don't think that this link has been posted before - sorry if it has.

2020.03.12 A Coordinated Boston Response to COVID19

https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d

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