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Covid 19 virus
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Bud:
Amazon and eBay are cracking down on sellers of coronavirus items at inflated prices

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51909045
SilverSolder:

--- Quote from: Siwastaja on March 16, 2020, 01:05:48 pm ---
--- Quote from: Leo Bodnar on March 16, 2020, 12:54:43 pm ---Just a back of the fag packet scribble.
Leo

--- End quote ---

Let's go further:

Probability of infection while in the store with the virus (keeping a meter of distance, washing hands, etc., rough estimate): 10%
Probability of getting infected per store visit 4.51%
Duration of the epidemic (estimate): 8 weeks

Number of visits to the store per week (case 1): 3
Number of visits to the store during epidemic (case 1): 24
Probability of getting infected by shopping (case 1): 1-(1-0.0451)^24 = 67%

Number of visits to the store per week (case 2, a semi-"hoarder" like me): 1
Number of visits to the store during epidemic (case 2): 8
Probability of getting infected by shopping (case 2): 1-(1-0.0451)^8 = 31%

Number of visits to the store per week (case 3, a prepared survivalist): 0
Number of visits to the store during epidemic (case 3): 0
Probability of getting infected by shopping (case 3): 0

(Still a demonstration of bag-of-the-envelope calculation. Might be off by an order of magnitude.)

--- End quote ---

But the survivalist is still only delaying the inevitable, if he ever intends to interact with another human being ever again...

The time to be a survivalist is when a much more deadly disease spreads, at which point it might be mankind's only hope for avoiding extinction...
SilverSolder:

--- Quote from: Leo Bodnar on March 16, 2020, 12:54:43 pm ---Just a back of the fag packet scribble.
Leo

--- End quote ---

I like the analysis.   But of the 10,000 infected people - how many of them will be out shopping as usual, rather than staying in bed?
thinkfat:

--- Quote from: Leo Bodnar on March 16, 2020, 12:54:43 pm ---Just a back of the fag packet scribble.
Leo

--- End quote ---

Your calculation only makes sense if the distribution is random.. You should make that more accurate by using the number of infected people in your county (or even, town).
paulca:
I find it interesting how a current statistical fact is completely miss-leading.

In the UK currently more people have died from the virus than have recovered.

Of course this is the case as there hasn't been enough time for people to recover but sadly enough time for people to die.   The data is also skewed because the UK are no longer testing for the virus, except for severe and critical cases, so registered active cases are much more severe.  The stats on severe/critical cases will also get skewed in the UK as a result.  It will look like more cases are severe and more people die.

I just hope the media don't go to town on these stats to scare people.
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