| General > General Technical Chat |
| Covid 19 virus |
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| Nusa:
CDC did it's job with projections, but the administration refused to pay heed to their warnings for a couple months and kept them muzzled until the damage was done. |
| maginnovision:
I'm in the ER and at least it isn't busy. Stricter rules than normal though. |
| Bud:
--- Quote from: Stray Electron on March 17, 2020, 02:55:59 am --- Even countries like Canada are showing a 25% increase in the number of cases just in the last 24 hours! --- End quote --- What did you expect if Canadian idiot health officials were saying ,as the toll was rising in China, if you see a Chinese person come say you support them and shake their hand. |
| hamster_nz:
--- Quote from: Stray Electron on March 17, 2020, 02:55:59 am ---However that's going to go up drastically if we can't limit the rate of increase so that the medical systems can deal with it. --- End quote --- I've been chewing on this point for some time. If we want to limit infections to the point where hospitals can deal with it (say 10k active cases at any time, in Italy), and cases take 20 day to resolve, that is a rate of about 500 serious cases per day, and with about 20% of cases needing hospitalization, that is 2,500 new cases per day of any severity. Italy has 60,000,000 people, so to not swamp the health system it will take 60,000,000/2,500 = 24,000 days (or 65 years!) if everybody was to get it without swamping the health system. Even if Italy was to grow the ability to have 100k cases in hospital, that is still 65 years. Assume Italy can have 100k hospital beds, and only 10% of the population get infected. that's still 1200 days of full hospitals with a perfectly managed rate of transmission. They way I see it, it will either get stamped out through infection control, or the hospital system will get swamped. There isn't a middle ground. Anybody who thinks "flattening the curve" is a workable long term plan probably hasn't done the math. (any correction to assumptions gladly accepted!) |
| not1xor1:
--- Quote from: Stray Electron on March 17, 2020, 02:55:59 am --- But you've missed an important point: at this point it little matters what happens to the economy. The entire planet is faced with the possibility of MASSIVE numbers of deaths due to overloaded medical systems. Right now, they're making hard decisions about the best way to keep as many people alive as possible. Yes, short of some sort of vaccine being invented EVERYONE is going to get it. And even in the best medical conditions, an average of 3.4% of the infected people are dying. That's 10 million people in the US alone and about 230 million world wide. However that's going to go up drastically if we can't limit the rate of increase so that the medical systems can deal with it. Go look at Italy right now, they CAN'T deal with the current rate of increase, Iran is just as bad, South Korea was but now seems to be getting some control on it. Spain is losing control, so is France and Ger --- End quote --- In Italy the infection rate is slowly getting lower and lower although the situation is not the same everywhere (there is even a province with zero cases). It takes time to see the effect of quarantine. I'm sure anyway that we'll have to wait at least another month before getting where China is now. |
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