General > General Technical Chat
Covid 19 virus
Zucca:
Italy was hitten so hard because we realized too late what was going on. I have also to say that we are very transpaternt with the numbers and we have nothing to hide.
Just please stay home.
This is the only defence we have.
PS: The virus is getting close to my family in Italy right now, it's not funny. Once it knocks on your door, it's different than reading the news.
-gb-:
--- Quote ---The IMPORTANT point he made, is that we are/need to control it on a "Flatter Curve", than otherwise, so that it remains manageable within the hospital/medical system, regarding beds/resources etc. for the duration.
--- End quote ---
Yes, that is the Western methon. the epidemic will stop on ITS OWN if 2/3 of the people were infected. that is true. but:
- there are other methods of stopping it, look at china/southkorea
- calculate the number of the dead even if the hospitals were not overrun and a very optimistic low 1% of all infected will die.
- calculate the timeframe.
here in germany we are about 80 million. 2/3 is around 50 million. about 5% (very optimistic) of the infected will need intensiv care at a hospital. that are 2.5 Million. so even if we succeed and flatten the curve to fully two (2) years. than that means, that there will be 2.5 Million/730 Days = about 3 000 NEW cases for intensive care EVERY DAY - for two years. that simply is too much. yes, you could flatten the curve, but not over 2 years but over 5 or 10 years. during that time, some measures must be done, that the number of infected does not rise.
So i think the only practical method is doing it als china has done. initially lower the number of infected with harsh methods. and then prevent the epidemic from starting again by prolonging some methods like wearing masks and hygiene/behavioral methods. this methods must remain in place till there is a vaccination AND the riskgroups are vaccinated. or till there is a medcine which can cure infected persons.
With this you don't have to infect 2/3 of the people. In Chine, 80 000 infected are less than 0.1% of all chinese. and they have stopped it. yes, they have new cases, but since the continue to have infection reducing methods like wearing masks, there healthsystem will not be overrun again. we should leran from them an do the same.
caveat:
The economics will break down very hard if we go the china way. but only fopr around 1 or two months. as we see, factorys in china are opening again. if we accept 2/3 of our people to infect, we accept many more dead, but economic will not break down so hard.
Bud:
BBC suggested air pollution in northern Italy caused lung problems in general and that contributed to high mortality from the virus. Is that right?
nctnico:
--- Quote from: Zucca on March 17, 2020, 01:59:21 pm ---PS: The virus is getting close to my family in Italy right now, it's not funny. Once he knocks on your door, it's different than reading the news.
--- End quote ---
My estimation is that by this time next year we all know someone personally who has died from the Corona virus.
-gb-:
BBC suggested air pollution in northern Italy caused lung problems in general and that contributed to high mortality from the virus. Is that right?
Maybe, but the more hard reasons are:
- the medical system is overrun.
at the begin of the epidemic, the mortality in italy was not higher than it is currently in france or spain. between 2% and 3%. then since 2nd march it is rising because the medical system is overrun.
Here are the numbers: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy
Today the mortality is at 7.7% http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto
- in italy there live more old people than in china. look at these two images i attatched.
Navigation
[0] Message Index
[#] Next page
[*] Previous page
Go to full version