General > General Technical Chat
Covid 19 virus
hamster_nz:
In case you haven't stumbled upon it yet, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries seems to be a good place for stats.
not1xor1:
--- Quote from: Stray Electron on March 17, 2020, 05:17:20 pm ---Italy was hit hard because they didn't quarantine the first two cases that they found back in early February. Around the 2nd they had two Chinese tourists that were sick and were hospitalized but they allowed them to continue of their tour of the country and to go on a cruise. Weeks later when Italians started getting sick, the authorities started finally started some very limited quarantines but by then hundreds of people all over Italy were infected as well as numerous people in the surrounding countries and some had traveled back the US and to Canada. About one week later, the number of cases in Italy exploded. Then about a week after that, the number of cases in many of the surrounding countries also exploded.
--- End quote ---
That's a huge pile of bullshit.
Are you just the usual fascist looking for any chance to spread your bloody fake news?
Shame on you.
Anybody who can read Italian might check what REALLY happened from respectable Italian newspapers like Corriere della Sera or Repubblica or Sole 24 ore (I'm unsure, but they might publish in English too)
The first two cases in Italy where two Chinese tourists in Rome. They were very civil and sensible people who quarantined themselves wearing masks, staying in the hotel room and restricting from touching other people.
Once they felt worse, they called the emergency number. The procedure for that kind of emergency was ready, so they sanitized the room and checked all the people who had got in touch with the tourists. Nobody else had been infected.
The tourists were immediately put into isolation and fully recovered after a few weeks in ICU (A study showing the rapid and severe damage to their respiratory system is going to be published soon).
Italy was the first country (and afaik the only one) in Europe to block direct flight from China, one of the first to get back and quarantine Italian nationals from there and constantly monitored people who had suspicious symptoms for possible contact with infected zones.
The problem is we did not have a patient zero here in Italy, but various patient ONE. None of them had got in touch with anybody else coming from China and positive (no antibody) to COVID-19.
So when those people went to the hospital with respiratory problems nobody at first thought it was COVID-19. Most of them were more than eighty and/or with other severe pathologies so the doctors thought they were dying of ordinary flue.
Then there was a young and fit Italian guy who started to show strange and strong respiratory symptoms. He was the first one to be tested for COVID-19. He had a friend who had come from China a couple of weeks before. But his friend was clean. No symptom, no antibody of a past infection.
Once that first patient was discovered they started to test medical staff and later recent deaths and so discovered the virus had been spreading in several hospitals unnoticed for a couple of weeks.
Patient zero might have been a German national (as for a recently published German study) who got infected during mid January and then transmitted the disease to colleagues who have been in North Italy a short while later. But that's no longer relevant as the disease had already spread widely and since sick people do go to hospitals where there were several infected medical staff the disease spread very quickly and wildly.
It was just the worst combination of unlucky and unlikely events, a perfect storm.
DrG:
--- Quote from: Stray Electron on March 17, 2020, 08:03:02 pm ---
--- Quote from: DrG on March 17, 2020, 06:33:53 pm ---Just released yesterday - report 16 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team
This is the UK "study" that you have, or will be reading about with mortality rates that will be making headlines.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
--- End quote ---
Wow! The onset of infectiousness is 12 hours to 4.6 days! That should set off alarm bells!
--- End quote ---
I am still going through it....Yes, there are a lot of alarm bells there. Not just the summary disease effects statements. The projections based on modelling the effects of various NPIs are more than sobering. For a while now, I have been hoping that there were feasible strategies (in the US) that could support the Health Care system without it being overwhelmed to the point of dysfunction, were possible. Now, I am, sadly, rethinking that.
Please, someone tell me that I am not reading this correctly....e.g., A1...
Figure A1: Suppression strategy scenarios for US showing ICU bed requirements. The black line shows the unmitigated epidemic. Green shows a suppression strategy incorporating closure of schools and universities, case isolation and population-wide social distancing beginning in late March 2020. The orange line shows a containment strategy incorporating case isolation, household quarantine and population-wide social distancing. The red line is the estimated surge ICU bed capacity in US. The blue shading shows the 5-month period in which these interventions are assumed to remain in place. (B) shows the same data as in panel (A) but zoomed in on the lower levels of the graph.
See that vertical horizontal red line - that is the surge critical care capability [US]. See how, that line is crossed under ALL of the NPI scenarios?! That is what I want somebody to tell me that I have read wrong. Please. If I am reading it correctly AND they are right with their analysis, we have a VERY limited window to develop effective PI, period, beginning, middle and end of headline.
rgarito:
Wouldnt surprise me. In fact, I'd be concerned about what they call "surge capacity."
In the hospitals I worked in, even on a Friday/Saturday night, the ERs were always so packed that "surge capacity" meant parking beds at pre-marked locations in the hallways.
And yeah, you are reading that correctly.... These are not exactly "isolation wards."
ICU's are generally pretty heavily used. And I'm concerned about the EQUIPMENT. Hospitals only have a limited number of ventilators. VERY limited. And a very limited number of people qualified to run them.
Cerebus:
You mean horizontal line. But, no, you haven't read it wrong. Critical Care facilities are not sized to cope with this. In the UK Critical Care beds (at 8 per 100,000 population) get overflowed in anything other than a mild flu season. I doubt the US is in any better situation despite having 14 critical care beds per 100,000.
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