Author Topic: Covid 19 virus  (Read 66971 times)

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Offline metrologist

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #50 on: March 03, 2020, 04:52:51 am »
Just a minor quibble.

COVID-19 is the illness/disease

SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes COVID-19
 
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Offline Nominal Animal

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #51 on: March 03, 2020, 05:13:14 am »
Yes, a lot of people will die, but there is a stupendous number of humans on this planet;
Ready to write this on your loved one's tombstone if they die from the virus ?
Why not?  They will die eventually anyway; it is only a matter of when.  So will I.  Do you not realize this?

(As a matter of fact, I would like to be disposed of in the manner shown in the 1996 movie Fargo; with my frozen body fed through a woodchipper.  It is better than burning, because the heavy metals accumulated in my body would be spread around rather than released into the atmosphere.  Unfortunately, all my siblings and friends have absolutely refused to do it, probably because it would be rather messy.)
 
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Offline Nominal Animal

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #52 on: March 03, 2020, 05:15:09 am »
Just a minor quibble.

COVID-19 is the illness/disease

SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes COVID-19
That makes as much sense as calling the virus HIV and the illness/disease AIDS.  Because of the distinction, lots of people are dead (because they claimed the two are unrelated).
 

Online splin

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #53 on: March 03, 2020, 05:41:28 am »
Not very long ago there were *only* 6 deaths from Covid 19 in China. More recently there were *only* 6 deaths in Iran, Italy etc.
I read his post in a completely different vein!  Weird, eh.

Hmm, not sure what you mean. How did you view his post?

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In particular, the overall death toll from covid-19 will almost certainly be no different than a bad flu season; at most at the level of pandemic expected to occur from one of the influenza viruses every three decades or so.  All the statistics bear the signs of that (since we can very simply compare them to old ones, except that we now have better information networks and much more data).

Your attitude is precisely why I believe a pandemic is, imo, virtually guaranteed. I've no idea where you are getting your statistics but the figures I see are much worse than your rosey picture. No flu season has come anywhere near to the 1918 pandemic; the only other 'pandemics' in the 1957/8 and 1968/9 outbreaks were very much less severe with death rates being not much different to typical years at 0.1%, compared to the 1918 pandemic at around 2%. Covid 19 has a mortality rate of somewhere between 1.3% and 3.5%, so at least as bad, if not worse than the 1918 influenza pandemic.

I'd love to hear your explanation of why those dramatic images of conditions inside Chinese hospitals are no worse than conditions seen every 3 decades or so.

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In the coming weeks, we will see that the number of deaths in Europe will be much higher, because of the ideological/political opposition to any sort of borders or restriction on movements -- that is my guess and bet.  I estimate we are only in the second week of the infected but symptomless carriers spreading the virus, so the true spike in cases will be a week to three weeks away still.  If that does happen, we know from the Chinese example that it could have been avoided.  Hopefully I'm completely wrong, though.

I agree with you there except I don't see why it will be a 'spike' - that implies significant actions being undertaken within few weeks to counter the virus spread. So far the only measures happening are the reduction in flights declared by Ryan Air and British Airways to Italy and other places, but only because of reducing demand. (The bold move by the US restricting flights excepted). As far as the UK government is concerned, it seems the masterplan is to hope for warm weather to slow the spread to a rate that the hospitals can cope with.

The population will eventually 'get it' and start to cooperate to tackle the spread but I very much doubt it will happen anytime soon. Without the dictatorial powers available to the Chinese state, I don't see how the rest of the world can hope to address the problem until public opinion finally kicks in. That will be very late in the day imo.

One thing is for sure, it won't take long to find out who is right and I sincerely hope it's not me.
 

Offline Nominal Animal

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #54 on: March 03, 2020, 06:36:11 am »
Hmm, not sure what you mean. How did you view his post?
As emphasizing that flu is deadly too, we just ignore it because we're overdue (according to virologists/epidemiologists) for a really bad flu variant, and haven't had a really bad one in a century.  The "thrice a century" isn't just last century, you know.

Your attitude is precisely why I believe a pandemic is, imo, virtually guaranteed. I've no idea where you are getting your statistics but the figures I see are much worse than your rosey picture.
I'm used to working with noisy data, so I know that if your dataset size is ~ 10,000 and you look at differences in the .1% range, you're basically just waving your arms without any statistical reliability.

Covid 19 has a mortality rate of somewhere between 1.3% and 3.5%, so at least as bad, if not worse than the 1918 influenza pandemic.
It is also nowhere as easily transmitted as most influenza variants, as evidenced by the efficacy of the Chinese quarantine methods.  Plus, the mortality rate is actually under 0.8% for those under 50 years of age.  It is not at all clear what the actual numbers are, since we don't even have reliable detection methods yet.

I'd love to hear your explanation of why those dramatic images of conditions inside Chinese hospitals are no worse than conditions seen every 3 decades or so.
Because in bad flu years, there are old people dying on beds in hospital corridors in just about every European country?

I agree with you there except I don't see why it will be a 'spike' - that implies significant actions being undertaken within few weeks to counter the virus spread.
Perhaps "spike" was the wrong word, and "step function" would have described it better, but words are hard.  (To me, "data spiking up" refers to a sudden rise, typical for initially exponential data, but does not necessarily mean the data also drops down as fast, only that the rise is fast with at least a small peak.)

As I see it, it is just how a single-point infection spreads when not hindered by quarantines.  Remember, most of the spread occurs when the carriers are asymptomatic.  When they get visibly ill, they're already about midpoint of the illness, typically; only the rare ones (< 20% of infected) who get severely ill or die, actually suffer longer.  Again, the absolute majority will weather it quite well, with just mild flu-like symptoms.

We know of at least one infection center in Northern Italy, which was released (by letting infected tourists back home) about a week to two weeks ago.
If my understanding of the situation is correct, these carriers have infected a large number of others on their way home, with basically an exponential initial growth.  This is common and typical in early stages.  We don't know about these people, because only people showing symptoms are tested.

Because the spread occurred in a relatively short time, with the spreaders having potentially contact to many other people on their way home, the number of transmitted cases is likely very large.  These asymptomatic carriers will infect others before their own symptoms will be visible, meaning the infection at this stage is spreading at a geometric or exponential rate.  Most of those who are likely to contract the virus, have already contacted it in most European cities at this point, I'm guessing.

The reason it is a spike, or will level out like capped by a ceiling, like a step function, is twofold.  One is that most of the people who will get infected, are already infected at that point.  The other is that most of the infected will get well, so the number of infected will eventually drop.  It won't be a needle-like spike, but more like a step function with a exponential rise, followed by a much slower gradual decrease.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2020, 06:38:48 am by Nominal Animal »
 

Online BravoV

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #55 on: March 03, 2020, 01:15:55 pm »
For those who believes in WHO, a 40 pages report by the WHO team who visited China on 16-24 February 2020.

-> Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) (PDF file)


At the Assessment section, these paragraphs, imo, has interesting situation from the WHO observation ...

"Achieving China’s exceptional coverage with and adherence to these containment measures has only been possible due to the deep commitment of the Chinese people to collective action in the face of this common threat.  At a community level this is reflected in the remarkable solidarity of provinces and cities in support of the most vulnerable populations and communities.  Despite ongoing outbreaks in their own areas, Governors and Mayors have continued to send thousands of health care workers and tons of vital PPE supplies into Hubei province and Wuhan city.

At the individual level, the Chinese people have reacted to this outbreak with courage and conviction.  They have accepted and adhered to the starkest of containment measures – whether the suspension of public gatherings, the month-long ‘stay at home’ advisories or prohibitions on travel.  Throughout an intensive 9-days of site visits across China, in frank discussions from the level of local community mobilizers and frontline health care providers to top scientists, Governors and Mayors, the Joint Mission was struck by the sincerity and dedication that each brings to this COVID-19 response.
"
« Last Edit: March 03, 2020, 01:22:46 pm by BravoV »
 

Offline rf-loop

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #56 on: March 03, 2020, 02:38:30 pm »
Also, the Chinese response to the virus is rather exemplary.  I do not know why they reacted so strongly, but it definitely was effective.

I can very easy think why China reacted so strongly. It was not even enough strongly and fast, but it need understand that decisions have made using knowledge what was available at this time and not with afterwards available knowledge. I have lived here now some time and followed quite tightly all things related to this (and also lived with SARS-CoV-2 around me and keeping it away from me). Only small difficulty is chinese language because my on next step of protection, now need faith against virus spread what is coming from outside to China as )one small example) last some cases in Zhejiang from EU (and same time keep care that Hubei do not leak to other parts of China.)
But, first bio war against virus is going end and over 96% of China is quite clean. China without Hubei confirmed current cases under 1.4ppm (peak was 6,7ppm) in population. In Wuhan alone at this time confirmed current cases around 2180ppm. (peak was 3454ppm, more slow decay due to communal spread of virus there) We can think what happen without strong intervention for attenuate speed of escalation and try to some isolation, just for think dimensions, 3454ppm in whole China is 4,9Mppl. If 20% get severe COVID-19 disease it is neary 1Mppl.   Without this strong and quite fast intervention... All know what it mean if this happen.  We know how Wuhan was in most bad days... if Wuhan have xx% from whole PLA medical human resources and still it it need lot of nurses and doctors from other prefectures. So, thank they start this strong and fast war against virus.



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Offline Cerebus

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #57 on: March 03, 2020, 02:56:56 pm »
Without the dictatorial powers available to the Chinese state, I don't see how the rest of the world can hope to address the problem until public opinion finally kicks in. That will be very late in the day imo.

One thing is for sure, it won't take long to find out who is right and I sincerely hope it's not me.

You don't know your own countries 'dictatorial powers' well enough. Check out the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 and the Emergency Powers Act 1964. In case of an 'emergency' the government can grant itself pretty much any power and suspend pretty much any existing law that it wants to. Most 'democracies' have some such set of dictatorial powers lurking on the books.
Anybody got a syringe I can use to squeeze the magic smoke back into this?
 
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Online splin

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #58 on: March 03, 2020, 03:40:36 pm »
I'm used to working with noisy data, so I know that if your dataset size is ~ 10,000 and you look at differences in the .1% range, you're basically just waving your arms without any statistical reliability.

Maybe but we aren't looking at .1% differences are we? Other than regular flu having a well understood death rate of around .1%

Ncov-19 has an infection rate of around 2 to 3, twice that of regular flu. That's 100% higher. The death rate is uncertain at this stage but appears to be between 1 and 3% or 1 to 2 thousand percent higher. There are no 0.1% differences here.

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Covid 19 has a mortality rate of somewhere between 1.3% and 3.5%, so at least as bad, if not worse than the 1918 influenza pandemic.
It is also nowhere as easily transmitted as most influenza variants, as evidenced by the efficacy of the Chinese quarantine methods.

"As evidenced"? Sorry, but that is just too daft to laugh at. The best current estimates from health professionals and scientists is that it is around twice as infectious. No doubt that will get revised as better statistics become available with increasing numbers.

I'm pretty certain that the extreme quarantine measures taken by the Chinese would have had at least as dramatic impact on the transmission of regular flu if not more.

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  Plus, the mortality rate is actually under 0.8% for those under 50 years of age.  It is not at all clear what the actual numbers are, since we don't even have reliable detection methods yet.

So what? That's still 800% higher than regular flu. And why be selective with the figures? What about the elderly with much higher mortality rates? Don't you care about them? Accurate numbers will become available in due course but it seems clear that they are much higher than 'regular' flu.

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I'd love to hear your explanation of why those dramatic images of conditions inside Chinese hospitals are no worse than conditions seen every 3 decades or so.
Because in bad flu years, there are old people dying on beds in hospital corridors in just about every European country?

Yes, but they just about cope, ususally. It's not uncommon for non emergency procedures to get postponed to accomodate more serious flu outbreaks, but it's likely to be as nothing compared to a serious epidemic of ncov-19 "as evidenced" by China having to build a whole new temporary hospital to handle the large numbers of acute patients. I doubt they've ever done that for 'regular flu' outbreaks.

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Most of those who are likely to contract the virus, have already contacted it in most European cities at this point, I'm guessing.

Hardly. 'Experts' here in the UK are expecting it to peak by around June. Its barely started yet. The UK government seem to be preparing for up to 80% of the population to catch the virus - but are hoping for good weather to slow it down to reduce pressure on the health services.

Maybe the public can yet be persuaded to adopt harsh isolation measures to limit its spread but I think too many people are too selfish these days for this to work. The days of the wartime spirit with everybody doing their bit for the common good seem to be long gone. I hope I've misjudged the public.
 

Offline SiliconWizard

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #59 on: March 03, 2020, 03:44:35 pm »
Without the dictatorial powers available to the Chinese state, I don't see how the rest of the world can hope to address the problem until public opinion finally kicks in. That will be very late in the day imo.

One thing is for sure, it won't take long to find out who is right and I sincerely hope it's not me.

You don't know your own countries 'dictatorial powers' well enough. Check out the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 and the Emergency Powers Act 1964. In case of an 'emergency' the government can grant itself pretty much any power and suspend pretty much any existing law that it wants to. Most 'democracies' have some such set of dictatorial powers lurking on the books.

Yup. We have actually used this extensively over here a few years back when there had been a wave of terrorist attacks, and some of the dispositions from the "state of emergency", when it was finally ended, eventually made it to the general laws. Did all this cause some heavy discussions over here? Yup it did. Was the government not able to proceed due to people's concerns though? Nope.

Similar things happened in the USA back in early 2000's (also due to terrorism), and it had lasting effects.

Those powers are not just lurking. They are effectively used, and more often than you think.

 

Offline Nominal Animal

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #60 on: March 03, 2020, 09:01:09 pm »
Ncov-19 has an infection rate of around 2 to 3, twice that of regular flu. That's 100% higher. The death rate is uncertain at this stage but appears to be between 1 and 3% or 1 to 2 thousand percent higher.
Where did you pull those number from?  As long as there is no reliable test, and the majority of infected only show mild cold/flu-like symptoms they are likely to weather at home without medical intervention, the numbers will be overestimates.

You obviously have no experience with noisy data, because at these scales comparing such small numbers with such high noise has huge error bars, "1 to 2 thousand percent higher" being as accurate as "enormous" or "tiny".  Essentially, the error bars at these scales are larger than the values themselves.  You can make statistical predictions based on them, but their reliability is very poor.

This is a perfect example of a dataset where your numbers are from a biased subset.  The apparent numbers do not reflect the true characteristics.

"As evidenced"? Sorry, but that is just too daft to laugh at. [...]
I'm pretty certain that the extreme quarantine measures taken by the Chinese would have had at least as dramatic impact on the transmission of regular flu if not more.
Ah, you are the type that goes "that's too daft, as I'm pretty certain".  I apologise for mistaking you for someone who considers things in a rational analytical fashion, instead of just going by the feel of your pants.

This is the first time the spread of an infectitious disease seems to have been completely stopped by quarantining the affected regions.  You might be pretty certain of whatever you like, but history shows us neither European countries nor Northern America has managed that yet.  Thus far, serious disease has only been managed through vaccination programs only.  We know quarantine works, and epidemiologists have been talking about self-imposed quarantines as an effective method for these viral outbreaks for decades; average westerners have just ignored their advice completely, and keep sneering at Asians wearing breathing masks (whose intent is not to protect themselves from infection, but from spreading possible infection to others; this seems a concept too hard to understand for many).

Yes, but they just about cope, ususally.
Be careful, you're waving your hands so hard you might start flying.

Are you sure you're not trying to explain things according to your own fixed internal model, instead of looking at the various possibilities that could explain the phenomena we are seeing?  I am trying to do the latter (because I am painfully aware of my internal tendencies to do the former, and absolutely hate it when it happens: it feels to me like getting lost because of being too lazy to look at the map often enough), and have pretty consistently described these as my current opinion.  I could be wrong -- and do feel free to disagree, I and others here value the viewpoints -- but when you start saying things like "that's too daft to even laugh at" followed by "I'm pretty certain that" you sound like having to question your own beliefs or understanding is your worst fear.  It shouldn't be; it is best to be your own advocatus diaboli, to inspect the roots of your beliefs and understanding, to find out where you truly stand.

As an example of weaknesses in my own understanding, I really do not know how dangerous this situation is, because we really do not know the true number of infected.  We know the lower bound, from people admitted to hospitals, but we have no reliable detection method, so the number of infected but with minor symptomps could be huge.  In fact, the scariest scenario is that there are actually more than one virus involved here, possibly describing the reinfection cases.  (The worst case scenario still is that the mutation rate is so high that human immune systems cannot keep up with it; this also makes any sort of effective vaccine highly unlikely.)

If anyone asks me how dangerous this is, I can only say truthfully "I don't know", or lie.  I just don't have anything to correlate this with.  So, instead, I just live with it, knowing that this epidemic or something like it will repeat at least once more in my lifetime, and I will then be even more susceptible (due to age) than I am now.
 

Offline hamster_nz

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #61 on: March 04, 2020, 12:16:37 am »
Ncov-19 has an infection rate of around 2 to 3, twice that of regular flu. That's 100% higher. The death rate is uncertain at this stage but appears to be between 1 and 3% or 1 to 2 thousand percent higher.
Where did you pull those number from?  As long as there is no reliable test, and the majority of infected only show mild cold/flu-like symptoms they are likely to weather at home without medical intervention, the numbers will be overestimates.

Where do you get your numbers from? That R0 number is very freely available, from various studies - eg:

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30091-6/fulltext

Of cause R0 varies depending on where you measure it, a jail or hospital is different from a subway or a isolated tropical island.

The 'reliable test available' is more of a people/political thing than a technology thing. in some countries they are being actively used. South Korea have been doing 2,138 test per million people. Finland have done 23 test per million people, and USA less than 2 - but now they have withdrawn the numbers.. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/

Apart from the CDC fiasco, false negatives in are mainly due to the samples not having enough RNA material to amplify, not due to failures of the test kits.

Rumor has it that the first positive test in the rest home was by a researcher who made their own test, as they couldn't get one through the CDC.

If the testing is unreliable (with lots of false negatives) then the actual R0 must be higher that indicated through testing... so you've shot yourself in the foot. Or are you saying it has false positives?
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Offline chickadee

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #62 on: March 04, 2020, 12:17:46 am »
Ok, just a little bit of hilarity from the AP news:

https://apnews.com/dcd130364f2bbec8142d0ae47f805cba

So basically the USA media needs to be negative and sensational about everything, so this is what they came up with...

Meanwhile, in the same few days, well over 10,000 (and likely closer to 20,000-30,000!) Americans died from other things - traffic fatalities, abortions, diseases induced by all the plastics in humans bodies and other pollutants from the environment...  But this is old news to them and you won't even find it on the last page   :-//

I don't know when journalism died, but it must have been a while ago  :-\
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Online splin

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #63 on: March 04, 2020, 12:39:16 am »
Ncov-19 has an infection rate of around 2 to 3, twice that of regular flu. That's 100% higher. The death rate is uncertain at this stage but appears to be between 1 and 3% or 1 to 2 thousand percent higher.
Where did you pull those number from?

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

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Virus transmission

The measure scientists use to determine how easily a virus spreads is known as the "basic reproduction number," or R0 (pronounced R-nought). This is an estimate of the average number of people who catch the virus from a single infected person, Live science previously reported. The flu has an R0 value of about 1.3, according to The New York Times.

Researchers are still working to determine the R0 for COVID-19.  Preliminary studies have estimated an R0 value for the new coronavirus to be between 2 and 3, according to the JAMA review study published Feb. 28. This means each infected person has spread the virus to an average of 2 to 3 people.

It's important to note that R0 is not necessarily a constant number. Estimates can vary by location, depending on such factors as how often people come into contact with each other and the efforts taken to reduce viral spread, Live Science

Also:

https://academic.oup.com/jtm/advance-article/doi/10.1093/jtm/taaa021/5735319

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Our review found the average R0 to be 3.28 and median to be 2.79, which exceed WHO estimates from 1.4 to 2.5. The studies using stochastic and statistical methods for deriving R0 provide estimates that are reasonably comparable. However, the studies using mathematical methods produce estimates that are, on average, higher. Some of the mathematically derived estimates fall within the range produced the statistical and stochastic estimates. It is important to further assess the reason for the higher R0 values estimated by some the mathematical studies. For example, modelling assumptions may have played a role. In more recent studies, R0 seems to have stabilized at around 2–3. R0 estimations produced at later stages can be expected to be more reliable, as they build upon more case data and include the effect of awareness and intervention. It is worthy to note that the WHO point estimates are consistently below all published estimates, although the higher end of the WHO range includes the lower end of the estimates reviewed here.

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As long as there is no reliable test, and the majority of infected only show mild cold/flu-like symptoms they are likely to weather at home without medical intervention, the numbers will be overestimates.

A bit arrogant don't you think? You don't just suppose the professionals and experts in the field and within the WHO might not be aware of that? Of course I don't know if you are one such expert with in depth access to the raw data and computer models used to normalise the data to account for many confounding factors - noise as you suggest. If so I must apologise of course.

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You obviously have no experience with noisy data, because at these scales comparing such small numbers with such high noise has huge error bars, "1 to 2 thousand percent higher" being as accurate as "enormous" or "tiny".

Rubbish. I'm not an expert in statistics but I understand the concepts well enough. What 'small numbers' are you talking about? The death rate for regular flu is widely published as 0.1% by various reputable bodies, based on very large data sets so the value should be pretty reliable and the error bars small.

The death rate for Ncov-19 is less reliable but the datasets are still pretty large given official numbers of cases exceeding 80,000. The number of deaths are known pretty reliably so the error bars for the 'death rate for known cases' will be small and varies for different locations and will change over time as the virus mutates and/or the virus loading of infected individuals varies as the weather changes etc.

The adjusted numbers, for those projected to have or have had the virus but not included in the official case numbers are where the noise/uncertainty comes in and will no doubt be quite large but will not change the obeservation that Ncov-19 has a much higher death rate than flu, with rates, published by reputable bodies, in the range 8 to 35 times that of flu.

I'm sure, if I could be bothered, I could find published papers that provide reliable estimates of the uncertainties. I can't so I am happy to rely on the the published numbers as being reasonable. If Ncov-19 has the same death rate as regular flu that would mean they have had nearly 3 million cases compared to the official figure of 80,000. If so I would suggest that would be almost impossible to hide and the spread would be completely out of control.

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Essentially, the error bars at these scales are larger than the values themselves.  You can make statistical predictions based on them, but their reliability is very poor.

What scales are you talking about? The scale, as in the death rate and infection rate itself has very little to do with reliability that is determined by the sample size which needs to be statisically significant - which is certainly the case for these figures

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This is a perfect example of a dataset where your numbers are from a biased subset.  The apparent numbers do not reflect the true characteristics.

Again, unless you have access to the actual data etc. I don't see how you can possibly make any claims about the reliabilty or uncertainty of the published numbers. Really, since you are the one making the claim that the 'official' numbers are unreliable then the onus is on you to provide some evidence.

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"As evidenced"? Sorry, but that is just too daft to laugh at. [...]
I'm pretty certain that the extreme quarantine measures taken by the Chinese would have had at least as dramatic impact on the transmission of regular flu if not more.
Ah, you are the type that goes "that's too daft, as I'm pretty certain".  I apologise for mistaking you for someone who considers things in a rational analytical fashion, instead of just going by the feel of your pants.

Ok, I apologise for being flipant, but there comes a point when there's little point continuing the discussion when it descends into, what one party or the other considers to be absurdity and I made that judgement. I try to keep an open mind and 'consider things in a rational analytical fashion' but your "as evidenced by" claim definately crossed the threshold where I considered that further discussion is pointless. Your suggestion is nothing but a hypothesis and certainly does not provide any evidence, any more than the lunar landing deniers present lots of 'evidence'.

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This is the first time the spread of an infectitious disease seems to have been completely stopped by quarantining the affected regions.  You might be pretty certain of you like, but history shows us neither European countries nor Northern America has managed that yet.

I'm definately no expert in this area but I would suggest that Ebola, SARs, MERs were stopped by human intervention but they were likely much less transmissable. Plenty of animal infections have been stopped by quarantining - eg. foot and mouth disease in the UK. Quarantining is a proven method for stopping the spread of disease if applied sufficiently rigorously.

In the case of China's effective quaranting of Ncov-19, I would further suggest it is the
only time it has ever been applied on a large scale outbreak so you cannot draw any conclusions about the transmissivity of Ncov-19 compared to flu based on this one outcome. Statistically absolutely insignificant.

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  Thus far, serious disease has only been managed through vaccination programs only.  We know quarantine works, and epidemiologists have been talking about self-imposed quarantines as an effective method for these viral outbreaks for decades; average westerners have just ignored their advice completely, and keep sneering at Asians wearing breathing masks (whose intent is not to protect themselves from infection, but from spreading possible infection to others; this seems a concept too hard to understand for many).

I think we are  largely in agreement here.

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Yes, but they just about cope, ususally.
Be careful, you're waving your hands so hard you might start flying.

I've really no idea what you are trying to say here. I just checked and my hands definately aren't waving. How about addressing what I said? Do you believe that Western and Chinese health services haven't managed to cope reasonably well with previous flu outbreaks, albeit if considerably stretched on occasion?

Do you really believe that hospitals in China were not seriously overwhelmed by Ncov-19  cases on a much bigger scale than any flu outbreak in the last fifty years or so?

For the avoidance of doubt I believe that the impact of Ncov-19 on hospitals in China was very much worse than any recent flu and expect that western hospitals will be equally badly affected if the transmision rate isn't slowed by warmer weather.

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Are you sure you're not trying to explain things according to your own fixed internal model, instead of looking at the various possibilities that could explain the phenomena we are seeing?  I am trying to do the latter (because I am painfully aware of my internal tendencies to do the former, and absolutely hate it when it happens: it feels to me like getting lost because of being too lazy to look at the map often enough), and have pretty consistently described these as my current opinion.  I could be wrong -- and do feel free to disagree, I and others here value the viewpoints -- but when you start saying things like "that's too daft to even laugh at" followed by "I'm pretty certain that" you sound like having to question your own beliefs or understanding is your worst fear.  It shouldn't be; it is best to be your own advocatus diaboli, to inspect the roots of your beliefs and understanding, to find out where you truly stand.

I'm sorry but I can't muster the energy to try and comprehend the above philosophy. I'm taking a simple view and don't pretend to have any special knowledge of the disease - I'm simply observing its rapid spread and noting official death rates.

I conclude that as no significant measures have, as yet, been put into place to control movements to and from infection hotspots, especially Italy, that the virus is now out of control and a large percentage of the world population will contract the disease.

The spread hopefully will slow down as the public eventually reacts to the danger and modifies its behaviour. Given claims today that privately contracted staff working in NHS hospitals (eg. cleaners) will continue to work when infected because they won't get sick pay, doesn't give me much hope.
 
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As an examples,  of weaknesses in my own understanding, I really do not know how dangerous this situation is, because we really do not know the true number of infected.  We know the lower bound, from people admitted to hospitals, but we have no reliable detection method, so the number of infected but with minor symptomps could be huge.  In fact, the scariest scenario is that there are actually more than one virus involved here, possibly describing the reinfection cases.  (The worst case scenario still is that the mutation rate is so high that human immune systems cannot keep up with it; this also makes any sort of effective vaccine highly unlikely.)

If anyone asks me how dangerous this is, I can only say truthfully "I don't know", or lie.  I just don't have anything to correlate this with.  So, instead, I just live with it, knowing that this epidemic or something like it will repeat at least once more in my lifetime, and I will then be even more susceptible (due to age) than I am now.

"I just live with it" or die with it perhaps. Let's hope not. I'm not personally interested in speculating about the possibilities of further mutations or the possibility of multiple viruses. There is enough to worry about as there is.
 

Offline NiHaoMike

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #64 on: March 04, 2020, 01:32:00 am »

Interesting to note that the deaths correlated most to other medical problems and smoking.
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Offline edy

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #65 on: March 04, 2020, 01:44:13 am »
We have several people now in hospitals in my area (Toronto) with coronavirus:

https://www.toronto.ca/community-people/health-wellness-care/diseases-medications-vaccines/coronavirus/

The situation is only getting worse. Our most recent cases are from people who visited Iran, and I believe one went through Egypt. Anyways, I've heard from quite a few people I bumped into just in the last few days that the local Costco (large warehouse-sized superstore for those who don't know) was *VERY* busy with huge line ups and so on... WHY????

At first one might think people are in panic mode and clearing the shelves of essentials, waiting for the oncoming Zombie apocalypse. It turns out the huge line-ups are due to Costco implementing some new protocol where EVERY SHOPPING CART entering the store gets a Lysol wipe-down and everyone is getting their hands sprayed/sanitized or something like that.... So it is creating line-ups.

Second issue is with store shelves being depleted not due to panic buying, but lack of STOCK arriving from overseas. Walmart is likely to experience the same... As the shipping-container industry grinds to a halt, many workers in China not available to load ships or ships being held in ports for longer times. So it is creating a backlog of shipments and goods which for the most part in these stores comes from China.
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Offline Cerebus

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #66 on: March 04, 2020, 01:48:19 am »
Interesting to note that the deaths correlated most to other medical problems and smoking.

Not wishing to be flippant, but that's a commonplace. Upper repository tract viral infections (which covers Coronavirus, Flu and some others) typically have worse outcomes in the very old, the very young and people with pre-existing respiratory medical conditions (asthma, COAD/COPD/emphysema*, smoking related COAD, industrially acquired COADS) or respiratory insufficiency from other medical conditions (heart and circulatory problems, etc). SARS was an odd one out as the killer element of SARS seems to have been it triggering a 'cytokine storm' in the immune system and that is more likely to happen to the otherwise most fit individuals - SARS fatality rate was highest in the 15-30 age group, the group that normally has the highest survival rate from this class of infections.


* The bloody name keeps changing. Chronic Bronchitis => Emphysema => Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease => Chronic Obstructive Airway Disease
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Online SilverSolder

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #67 on: March 04, 2020, 02:33:02 am »
We have several people now in hospitals in my area (Toronto) with coronavirus:

https://www.toronto.ca/community-people/health-wellness-care/diseases-medications-vaccines/coronavirus/

The situation is only getting worse. Our most recent cases are from people who visited Iran, and I believe one went through Egypt. Anyways, I've heard from quite a few people I bumped into just in the last few days that the local Costco (large warehouse-sized superstore for those who don't know) was *VERY* busy with huge line ups and so on... WHY????

At first one might think people are in panic mode and clearing the shelves of essentials, waiting for the oncoming Zombie apocalypse. It turns out the huge line-ups are due to Costco implementing some new protocol where EVERY SHOPPING CART entering the store gets a Lysol wipe-down and everyone is getting their hands sprayed/sanitized or something like that.... So it is creating line-ups.

Second issue is with store shelves being depleted not due to panic buying, but lack of STOCK arriving from overseas. Walmart is likely to experience the same... As the shipping-container industry grinds to a halt, many workers in China not available to load ships or ships being held in ports for longer times. So it is creating a backlog of shipments and goods which for the most part in these stores comes from China.

There is panic buying going on too, according to staff at the local supermarket....  (east coast USA)
 

Online Marco

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #68 on: March 04, 2020, 04:01:26 am »
Trying to beat the stampede is not panic, it's rational.

The end effect of rational decisions might be undesirable on a larger scale but who the hell wants to be stuck with shitty toilet paper? Better stock up on 3-ply now.

PS. not even kidding ...
« Last Edit: March 04, 2020, 04:03:38 am by Marco »
 

Offline rgarito

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #69 on: March 04, 2020, 04:20:51 am »
Who thinks Dave needs to do a teardown....

https://wsvn.com/news/local/pompano-beach-companys-air-cleansing-invention-in-high-demand/

I have a feeling things like this are gonna be coming out of the woodwork...
 

Offline jonovid

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #70 on: March 04, 2020, 04:54:24 am »
interesting how some people are more concerned about wiping their ass!  than if they have enough food or water  :palm:

all them people that make fun of survivalism, preppers, doom's-dayers. no they are not paranoid.
how many people have solar panels on the roof but its not an off grid system. useless in a power-outage.
have rainwater downpipes but no water tank. gravel garden but no vegetables.

what maybe biological warfare Coronavirus is a Pandemic! but no body saying so for now, 
no body's calling Pandemic for now because of the US 2020 Presidential Race , & other sacred cows like the Olympics!
 like a type of human myxomatosis to control global populations. Eugenics  them that believe the world is overpopulated.
if it was just anther Ebola it would have ended by now.  this is something 10x more deadly!  :scared:
the panic will come for them that fear the reaper.   Plague is nothing new.   as most pandemics in human history
the worlds human population will recover from this hit.

insects animals & aircraft all can spread a pandemic
I note a large plague of locusts muching their way from  Ethiopia, in the Horn of Africa all the way up-to China,
locusts grasshoppers according to my grandfather, when in plague swarm will eat anything & everything green,
even eating the green paint on blinding s. then dying on mass.
« Last Edit: March 04, 2020, 06:43:16 am by jonovid »
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Offline Bud

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #71 on: March 04, 2020, 07:39:02 am »
In situations like this, one will be better off if hungry but kept his ass clean.
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Offline Marck

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #72 on: March 04, 2020, 10:05:08 am »
I have been casually watching and reading the daily WHO situation reports (this is to avoid the media hype).  One thing I have noticed and is by no means a fact or mathematical just very casual observation but the point of rapid increases is case numbers seems to trigger in each reported region when the new cases per day gets to about 30 percent of total cases and seems to roughly stabilise at that rate.  The exception to this was wuhan itself when the confirmed cases seemed to level off at about 3-4K but I think that was where they hit the limit of their daily diagnostic capability. 

Here in Australia people are just being dumb.  I have no issues with people doing what they think is best for themselves and their family.  The first 2 things you could not find was hand sanitiser and face masks.  The sanitiser I get but the advice is that face masks are not a recommendation for control of transmission unless you are sick and trying to prevent transmitting the virus to others.
And now toilet paper panic buying. 

I gave this whole situation some thought (I am not a prepper of any kind I have trouble having enough socks to last a week).  My shopping list based on the fact that everyone in my home is below 50 and otherwise healthy. 

200 paracetamol tablets and 200 ibuprofen tablets and a dozen bars of soap. So if the virus makes its way into our home and the outbreak is at the point where only the very sick will be hospitalised at least I will be able to treat the aches and pains and maybe control the fever for the couple of weeks to a month we could be unwell if we don’t get sick enough to make it to hospital.  And even then I feel I could be overreacting.

But I have given the kids a strict hygiene plan to implement now so it’s in practice if (when?) numbers start increasing here. 

And that’s just washing hands in every change in environment train - school. Break-class things like that.

I have told them that if numbers here start to climb that they have the go ahead to remove themselves from any situation where someone is unwell.  Be it class or the train and they can Uber home whatever. 

Personally I think this thing is in the wild and there will be no containment.  And focus now will be controlling the spread so that the medical systems can cope and not explode and all but cripple the healthcare system. 

And with any luck we will keep it out of our home and make it to the point a vaccine hits the market and get around it that way. 


But I was one of the lucky ones that got H1N1 with no traceability for its source and after the point where they where trying to contain it. My doc just sent me home with a course of tamiflu where I was quarantined to my room and my wife just left supplies outside the door and I would give reports on myself via text message incase I got really sick.  We managed to avoid passing it from me to her.

And I can tell you with that one I actually wanted to die. And no signs of running out of TP. 

M

 

Online blueskull

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #73 on: March 04, 2020, 10:11:55 am »
The sanitiser I get but the advice is that face masks are not a recommendation for control of transmission unless you are sick and trying to prevent transmitting the virus to others.

Can't agree. Without everyone putting masks on everyday when they go outside, China case count would explode in every city.
Mainstream medias urge not to use masks only because there are not enough capability to manufacture them. In a few weeks when production has ramped up worldwide, medias will report differently.
 

Offline Rerouter

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #74 on: March 04, 2020, 10:33:25 am »
Can confirm Australia now has mass panic buying aswell, couldn't help but laugh seeing every bit of paper out of stock, even serving napkins....

Pain is they also bought out all the pet food... luckily all the grass is seeding, so able to handle for the next few weeks with a few walks by the nearby park and greenways for my birds,

yet all the non-perishable foods left untouched, even things like cereals which are easy to keep, and energy dense, almost fully stocked... It puzzles me
 


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