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| Covid 19 virus |
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| splin:
--- Quote from: Nominal Animal on March 03, 2020, 03:23:21 am --- --- Quote from: splin on March 03, 2020, 02:10:33 am ---Not very long ago there were *only* 6 deaths from Covid 19 in China. More recently there were *only* 6 deaths in Iran, Italy etc. --- End quote --- I read his post in a completely different vein! Weird, eh. --- End quote --- Hmm, not sure what you mean. How did you view his post? --- Quote ---In particular, the overall death toll from covid-19 will almost certainly be no different than a bad flu season; at most at the level of pandemic expected to occur from one of the influenza viruses every three decades or so. All the statistics bear the signs of that (since we can very simply compare them to old ones, except that we now have better information networks and much more data). --- End quote --- Your attitude is precisely why I believe a pandemic is, imo, virtually guaranteed. I've no idea where you are getting your statistics but the figures I see are much worse than your rosey picture. No flu season has come anywhere near to the 1918 pandemic; the only other 'pandemics' in the 1957/8 and 1968/9 outbreaks were very much less severe with death rates being not much different to typical years at 0.1%, compared to the 1918 pandemic at around 2%. Covid 19 has a mortality rate of somewhere between 1.3% and 3.5%, so at least as bad, if not worse than the 1918 influenza pandemic. I'd love to hear your explanation of why those dramatic images of conditions inside Chinese hospitals are no worse than conditions seen every 3 decades or so. --- Quote ---In the coming weeks, we will see that the number of deaths in Europe will be much higher, because of the ideological/political opposition to any sort of borders or restriction on movements -- that is my guess and bet. I estimate we are only in the second week of the infected but symptomless carriers spreading the virus, so the true spike in cases will be a week to three weeks away still. If that does happen, we know from the Chinese example that it could have been avoided. Hopefully I'm completely wrong, though. --- End quote --- I agree with you there except I don't see why it will be a 'spike' - that implies significant actions being undertaken within few weeks to counter the virus spread. So far the only measures happening are the reduction in flights declared by Ryan Air and British Airways to Italy and other places, but only because of reducing demand. (The bold move by the US restricting flights excepted). As far as the UK government is concerned, it seems the masterplan is to hope for warm weather to slow the spread to a rate that the hospitals can cope with. The population will eventually 'get it' and start to cooperate to tackle the spread but I very much doubt it will happen anytime soon. Without the dictatorial powers available to the Chinese state, I don't see how the rest of the world can hope to address the problem until public opinion finally kicks in. That will be very late in the day imo. One thing is for sure, it won't take long to find out who is right and I sincerely hope it's not me. |
| Nominal Animal:
--- Quote from: splin on March 03, 2020, 05:41:28 am ---Hmm, not sure what you mean. How did you view his post? --- End quote --- As emphasizing that flu is deadly too, we just ignore it because we're overdue (according to virologists/epidemiologists) for a really bad flu variant, and haven't had a really bad one in a century. The "thrice a century" isn't just last century, you know. --- Quote from: splin on March 03, 2020, 05:41:28 am ---Your attitude is precisely why I believe a pandemic is, imo, virtually guaranteed. I've no idea where you are getting your statistics but the figures I see are much worse than your rosey picture. --- End quote --- I'm used to working with noisy data, so I know that if your dataset size is ~ 10,000 and you look at differences in the .1% range, you're basically just waving your arms without any statistical reliability. --- Quote from: splin on March 03, 2020, 05:41:28 am ---Covid 19 has a mortality rate of somewhere between 1.3% and 3.5%, so at least as bad, if not worse than the 1918 influenza pandemic. --- End quote --- It is also nowhere as easily transmitted as most influenza variants, as evidenced by the efficacy of the Chinese quarantine methods. Plus, the mortality rate is actually under 0.8% for those under 50 years of age. It is not at all clear what the actual numbers are, since we don't even have reliable detection methods yet. --- Quote from: splin on March 03, 2020, 05:41:28 am ---I'd love to hear your explanation of why those dramatic images of conditions inside Chinese hospitals are no worse than conditions seen every 3 decades or so. --- End quote --- Because in bad flu years, there are old people dying on beds in hospital corridors in just about every European country? --- Quote from: splin on March 03, 2020, 05:41:28 am ---I agree with you there except I don't see why it will be a 'spike' - that implies significant actions being undertaken within few weeks to counter the virus spread. --- End quote --- Perhaps "spike" was the wrong word, and "step function" would have described it better, but words are hard. (To me, "data spiking up" refers to a sudden rise, typical for initially exponential data, but does not necessarily mean the data also drops down as fast, only that the rise is fast with at least a small peak.) As I see it, it is just how a single-point infection spreads when not hindered by quarantines. Remember, most of the spread occurs when the carriers are asymptomatic. When they get visibly ill, they're already about midpoint of the illness, typically; only the rare ones (< 20% of infected) who get severely ill or die, actually suffer longer. Again, the absolute majority will weather it quite well, with just mild flu-like symptoms. We know of at least one infection center in Northern Italy, which was released (by letting infected tourists back home) about a week to two weeks ago. If my understanding of the situation is correct, these carriers have infected a large number of others on their way home, with basically an exponential initial growth. This is common and typical in early stages. We don't know about these people, because only people showing symptoms are tested. Because the spread occurred in a relatively short time, with the spreaders having potentially contact to many other people on their way home, the number of transmitted cases is likely very large. These asymptomatic carriers will infect others before their own symptoms will be visible, meaning the infection at this stage is spreading at a geometric or exponential rate. Most of those who are likely to contract the virus, have already contacted it in most European cities at this point, I'm guessing. The reason it is a spike, or will level out like capped by a ceiling, like a step function, is twofold. One is that most of the people who will get infected, are already infected at that point. The other is that most of the infected will get well, so the number of infected will eventually drop. It won't be a needle-like spike, but more like a step function with a exponential rise, followed by a much slower gradual decrease. |
| BravoV:
For those who believes in WHO, a 40 pages report by the WHO team who visited China on 16-24 February 2020. -> Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) (PDF file) At the Assessment section, these paragraphs, imo, has interesting situation from the WHO observation ... "Achieving China’s exceptional coverage with and adherence to these containment measures has only been possible due to the deep commitment of the Chinese people to collective action in the face of this common threat. At a community level this is reflected in the remarkable solidarity of provinces and cities in support of the most vulnerable populations and communities. Despite ongoing outbreaks in their own areas, Governors and Mayors have continued to send thousands of health care workers and tons of vital PPE supplies into Hubei province and Wuhan city. At the individual level, the Chinese people have reacted to this outbreak with courage and conviction. They have accepted and adhered to the starkest of containment measures – whether the suspension of public gatherings, the month-long ‘stay at home’ advisories or prohibitions on travel. Throughout an intensive 9-days of site visits across China, in frank discussions from the level of local community mobilizers and frontline health care providers to top scientists, Governors and Mayors, the Joint Mission was struck by the sincerity and dedication that each brings to this COVID-19 response. " |
| rf-loop:
--- Quote from: Nominal Animal on March 03, 2020, 03:23:21 am ---Also, the Chinese response to the virus is rather exemplary. I do not know why they reacted so strongly, but it definitely was effective. --- End quote --- I can very easy think why China reacted so strongly. It was not even enough strongly and fast, but it need understand that decisions have made using knowledge what was available at this time and not with afterwards available knowledge. I have lived here now some time and followed quite tightly all things related to this (and also lived with SARS-CoV-2 around me and keeping it away from me). Only small difficulty is chinese language because my on next step of protection, now need faith against virus spread what is coming from outside to China as )one small example) last some cases in Zhejiang from EU (and same time keep care that Hubei do not leak to other parts of China.) But, first bio war against virus is going end and over 96% of China is quite clean. China without Hubei confirmed current cases under 1.4ppm (peak was 6,7ppm) in population. In Wuhan alone at this time confirmed current cases around 2180ppm. (peak was 3454ppm, more slow decay due to communal spread of virus there) We can think what happen without strong intervention for attenuate speed of escalation and try to some isolation, just for think dimensions, 3454ppm in whole China is 4,9Mppl. If 20% get severe COVID-19 disease it is neary 1Mppl. Without this strong and quite fast intervention... All know what it mean if this happen. We know how Wuhan was in most bad days... if Wuhan have xx% from whole PLA medical human resources and still it it need lot of nurses and doctors from other prefectures. So, thank they start this strong and fast war against virus. |
| Cerebus:
--- Quote from: splin on March 03, 2020, 05:41:28 am ---Without the dictatorial powers available to the Chinese state, I don't see how the rest of the world can hope to address the problem until public opinion finally kicks in. That will be very late in the day imo. One thing is for sure, it won't take long to find out who is right and I sincerely hope it's not me. --- End quote --- You don't know your own countries 'dictatorial powers' well enough. Check out the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 and the Emergency Powers Act 1964. In case of an 'emergency' the government can grant itself pretty much any power and suspend pretty much any existing law that it wants to. Most 'democracies' have some such set of dictatorial powers lurking on the books. |
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