General > General Technical Chat
Covid 19 virus
not1xor1:
regarding the bullshit somebody wrote about the spread of the virus in Italy, you can also check Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy
it looks like we got that from Germany...
--- Quote ---It has been subsequently reported that the origin of these cases has a possible connection to the first European local transmission that occurred in Munich, Germany, on 19 January 2020, consistent with phylogenetic analysis of viral genome.[30][31][32] The 38-year-old man was asymptomatic for weeks, reportedly led an active social life and potentially interacted with dozens of people before spreading the virus at Codogno Hospital
--- End quote ---
nobody expected that
Zucca:
Keep your ass at home. The rest is not so relevant at the moment in my eyes...
Finger pointing is not productive, let's just help each other to overcome this mess.
What we write here will not change the situation, unless we are posting from our home.
DBecker:
--- Quote from: james_s on March 17, 2020, 07:44:02 pm ---
--- Quote from: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 06:37:24 pm ---I even read US people are going to buy weapons like crazy ... I do not know if they are afraid somebody comes and steal their stock of toilet paper or if the pretend to kill the virus by shooting :-DD
--- End quote ---
Normally I would dismiss those guys who hoard guns and ammo as lunatics however watching this unfold makes them look not quite as crazy. I would not be hugely surprised if some areas start to have problems with groups of people going around robbing others of supplies or taking advantage of the quarantines and distractions keeping law enforcement busy to start looting businesses. Unfortunately there are always those who will take advantage of any situation to help themselves, we see it all the time, a natural disaster hits and people start looting stores, stealing TVs and computers and stuff like that which is obviously not essential.
--- End quote ---
I've not seen anything besides the usual exaggerated stories.
People aren't out buying guns for this crisis.
Sure there are crazy preppers. But they already have guns and ammo. Way more than they need because there were people that believed the fake stories that Obama would take their guns. Years of self-created ammo shortages were caused by people stocking up, not because people were using lots of expensive ammo shooting at targets.
DrG:
--- Quote from: flyte on March 17, 2020, 10:53:54 pm ---
--- Quote from: DrG on March 17, 2020, 09:45:40 pm ---See that vertical horizontal red line - that is the surge critical care capability [US]. See how, that line is crossed under ALL of the NPI scenarios?! That is what I want somebody to tell me that I have read wrong. Please. If I am reading it correctly AND they are right with their analysis, we have a VERY limited window to develop effective PI, period, beginning, middle and end of headline.
--- End quote ---
No, you didn't read it wrong. I think the US has few time left to act in a drastic manner, if the aim is to prevent what is happening to other countries who have acted as-needed. Aside from the medical cases and complications, the problem with this virus is:
* high infection rate and highly contagious
* long incubation period of up to 14 daysUnless a country is willing to take very drastic isolation measures before they appear to be needed, as perceived by the general population, the filling up of its medical infrastructure will be caught in speed by the virus, and you're heading straight for the wall. It's not policy or politics, it's math.
If you would able to really take a snapshot of the exact real number of people infected right now, then it's maybe x100 times the current reported number. It's just that these people currently present no symptoms at all and happily infect others. But they will in two weeks. And in two weeks, the actual number of infected individuals will again be a multiple higher than what is being measured then. This goes on until about 60-70% of everyone has been infected, and then it goes down.
And yes, I'm certainly no expert in the matter, but from what I read it seems the US is heading for the opposite, i.e. underestimating it and taking too few measures.
--- End quote ---
I get what you are saying, but keep this in mind....IF the Brit's report, with specific regard to the projections illustrated by the figure that I posted, we do, in fact, avoid a catastrophic failure of the Health Care system IF the more stringent NPI protocol is enforced AND it is enforced for an extended period of time - that is MORE than the 5 months shown on the illustration of the model. IF the NPI is released after 5 months, the re-occurrence of the infection along with the assured failure of the Health Care system is predicted to happen shortly after the NPI is withdrawn.
THAT is the most sobering aspect of the report to me. One conclusion is that the stringent NPI HAS to be in effect for more than 5 months (how long??) unless an effective PI is deployed.
Further, the suggestion [is] that the same would occur anywhere that the stringent NPI has been relaxed. So, one might wonder, has the NPI been relaxed in South Korea, for example? Get what I am saying/asking?
Cerebus:
--- Quote from: DrG on March 17, 2020, 11:08:13 pm ---So, the prediction of the NOV surge, as described, is a very big issue. If you (i.e., anybody) has read the report, knows a good deal about modelling, and can comment on the confidence of that prediction, I would sure like to hear about it.
--- End quote ---
Too complex to do anything other than guess at really. Many of the figures used as assumptions in the Imperial study are provisional (moreso than in science in general, which is always to some extent provisional). I see no reason to treat the Imperial study as anything less than "the best predictions we can make at the moment". We've no better working hypothesis, and I fully expect Imperial to revise their model (or someone else to build a similar but revised model) as more data becomes available and assumptions can be refined in the light of new data.
My concerns would be elsewhere. If the Imperial study is accurate (and for argument's sake lets take it as such) I fear it is short-sighted. I say this because if we achieved the effective level of control interventions to make things start to follow the Imperial graphs (on either the green or brown traces), as the general population sees a levelling off of infection rates they will become less compliant with the control measures. So we won't be waiting around for the putative September cut off of control measures to generate those peaks in Nov-Dec, they will happen sooner as folks take a more laissez-faire attitude to the controls.
Look at the difficulties we have here, among a group mostly made up of educated scientists and engineers, at getting some people to take this seriously enough. Imagine then, the difficulty getting "Bert the builder" or "Karen the data entry clerk" to continue taking preventative measures for five months that have financial and social costs to them when in three months time "I haven't seen people dropping like flies. I reckon it's all exaggerated, I'm going back to work/down the bar/whatever".
To maintain Imperial's controls for the next five months as they envisage, is going to require a level of coercion that the west is unaccustomed to and is likely to be increasing resistant to if the apparent disease spread is temporarily halted. The public will accept restrictions if they see "the enemy at the gate", they won't be so happy to do so if the "enemy" appears to them not to be materialising even though that is part of the plan and they've been told that. It will require a massive education drive to convince the public that this is just "holding back the flood" and continued isolation and other measure are still required; and this happens at a time when public confidence in government in the West is probably at the lowest I've seen it in my lifetime.
Navigation
[0] Message Index
[#] Next page
[*] Previous page
Go to full version