General > General Technical Chat
Covid 19 virus
hamster_nz:
Just passed 200,000 cases by woeldometer"s count...
Expecting 300k in four days :(
thinkfat:
--- Quote from: EEVblog on March 18, 2020, 09:51:27 am ---
--- Quote from: VK3DRB on March 18, 2020, 03:00:53 am ---I don't think we will ever know how many people got this virus. Like the 1919 flu, the final figures will be just estimates.
--- End quote ---
Absolutely no doubt.
Countless healthy people and kids will get it and have few if any symptoms and just brush it off, never to be tested.
Maybe in a decade they'll get a routine blood test or something and be told "Hey, you had the coronavirus".
--- End quote ---
There's plans over here to systematically test blood bank samples for coronavirus immune globulines in order to assess the true spread of the virus. Also, development is underway for a new type of tests that will deliver results in minutes instead of days. Works similar to a pregnancy test. These tests will not be as sensitive as the currently dominant RT-PCR test kits but it is known that the virus load in the throat is very high already when people start to complain about symptoms. These tests will be sensitive to the proteins of the virus' hull, not to the RNA. You need a higher concentration of virus material but as mentioned, that will not be a problem. Once produced in masses, they will immensely improve test coverage.
flyte:
--- Quote from: DrG on March 17, 2020, 11:44:45 pm ---I get what you are saying, but keep this in mind....IF the Brit's report, with specific regard to the projections illustrated by the figure that I posted, we do, in fact, avoid a catastrophic failure of the Health Care system IF the more stringent NPI protocol is enforced AND it is enforced for an extended period of time - that is MORE than the 5 months shown on the illustration of the model. IF the NPI is released after 5 months, the re-occurrence of the infection along with the assured failure of the Health Care system is predicted to happen shortly after the NPI is withdrawn.
THAT is the most sobering aspect of the report to me. One conclusion is that the stringent NPI HAS to be in effect for more than 5 months (how long??) unless an effective PI is deployed.
Further, the suggestion [is] that the same would occur anywhere that the stringent NPI has been relaxed. So, one might wonder, has the NPI been relaxed in South Korea, for example? Get what I am saying/asking?
--- End quote ---
Correct, albeit it would be hard and premature to stick a number on it. But measures will need to be applied for months, not just weeks.
And there's many unknowns, like general population health and immune response. But, on average, people are the same whichever side of the globe. The phantom of "we have a better a health care" will hit hard, as no health care system will be able to cope with the load of a free SARS-Cov-2 virus spread. Just look at what happened to other countries so far and their high healthcare quality standards.
But regardless of how accurate the report predictions really are, the NPI protocol will have to be very strict, in relative terms. Always a multiple stricter than what appears needed as given by the current figures, due to the reasons I've listed before. And there is the challenge, to get public opinion behind such measures without a readily observable facts in proximity. People are typically only willing to act based on current facts, not on impending trouble, even if it's just two weeks ahead.
The other part of your discussion, relaxing the NPI, is what I would call the phase two problem. Over here, this still has to come and China is about to enter it. I've seen statistics of previous old epidemics of the past which suggest that when measures are released too quickly, you effectively get a second, even higher, infection peak. So that's a very real worry indeed. And it will happen, people will feel "it's over and I want to get out now".
But, these would be "trouble for later", as we're all in the first phase of containment now and regarding the US, it still has to enter it the coming days/weeks.
However, regions which had a bad phase one, should have a less troublesome phase two, as their group immunity will be better.
Basically, as I've said before, there's two extreme options in the spectrum, none of which are realistic:
* Let nature do its thing and let the virus freely spread. Expect extreme cruelty from a society point of view, all weakest will die without medical care due to health infrastructure overload, with the benefit of very rapid group immunity and this "being over soon".
* Halt all personal contact and activity, and quarantaine everyone, without a single citizen disobeying. No group immunity but with the benefit of potentially ending virus spread before it progresses.
All realistic options are in between those. The more you go toward the last option, the longer the NPI measures period becomes and the less it will stress health care infrastructure, at the expense of economical distress.
vad:
--- Quote from: DrG on March 17, 2020, 09:45:40 pm ---
(Attachment Link)
See that vertical horizontal red line - that is the surge critical care capability [US]. See how, that line is crossed under ALL of the NPI scenarios?! That is what I want somebody to tell me that I have read wrong.
--- End quote ---
You are reading it wrong. The chart shows what would happen if both NPI scenarios last till the end of August (the blue band shows period of the restrictions assumed by the model). For example, for green line it tells that severe NPI measures including school closures could be efficacious. But once the restrictions are lifted at the start of September, health care system will become overwhelmed in less than 2 month, unless there would be some changes not taken into account by the model (like new therapies reducing the number of severe cases, virus mutations, availability of vaccine).
However, the chart does not tell what would happen if the restrictions stay in place beyond September, or how fast country would be left without available ICUs if restrictions are lifted earlier.
Siwastaja:
--- Quote from: Bud on March 17, 2020, 07:16:55 pm ---The Goddamn experts can go to hell. It were them saying 3 weeks ago that there is no need to close the borders and they will never do it. Fuck your experts.
--- End quote ---
Experts are ok. I mean, real medical experts. WHO has given good advice; Chinese health experts have given good advice. They have also given good advice to the governments all over the world. But the governments didn't listen, because they are freaking stupid and the fear.
Politicians, and the health authorities have totally fucked it up almost everywhere; varying from a high, or even higher degree. But 99.99% of them are not actual experts.
For many, it's very confusing. For example, here I believe people have taken the official advice quite seriously, but because the official response has been two weeks too late from the start, it doesn't help. You need to listen to the actual experts directly, bypassing the officials (who add the 2-week delay). But only a small percentage of us does this.
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