General > General Technical Chat
Covid 19 virus
thinkfat:
All these measures just serve to buy time with economic damage. We need to increase the amount of intensive care units and at the same time plow ahead to discover effective methods of medical intervention. Economic damage will eventually force us to lift the restrictions on travel and business. Predictably, we'll all be walking around with face masks for many months.
Nominal Animal:
Although EU is closing its borders to curb the spread of the pandemic, Finland and Sweden have emphasized that humanitarian migrants can still cross our borders unhindered, because that's what is most important right now, right?
For some people/politicians, ideological goals override even the life and death of others. :palm:
If my suspicions are right, this "we'll do some of the things suggested, but not all" approach will be worse than either the full isolation or no isolation at all, because ideological exceptions tend to have a demoralising effect.
I've started seeing signs that people are trying to actually help each other much more than before, and that could be a decisive factor with respect to the results. But, if people see others ignoring the rules, they are more likely to break the rules themselves, which can negate the entire group effort.
Siwastaja:
--- Quote from: DrG on March 17, 2020, 09:45:40 pm ---See that vertical horizontal red line - that is the surge critical care capability [US]. See how, that line is crossed under ALL of the NPI scenarios?! That is what I want somebody to tell me that I have read wrong. Please. If I am reading it correctly AND they are right with their analysis, we have a VERY limited window to develop effective PI, period, beginning, middle and end of headline.
--- End quote ---
In that model, the actions are performed in a single, 5-month long step function (drawn as the blue background); these models completely stop the actions after 5 months, so it's not unsurprising that every scenario includes a second wave. Do note, however, that this second wave is smaller than the unmitigated wave. This is comforting.
In reality, the orange line and green line models would need to be accompanied with another action region (another blue region) to mitigate the secondary peaks. This would cause tertiary peaks, but they would be even smaller.
I'm sure the models do not represent the reality exactly, but they do show the mechanisms. Taking action is better than no action, but it's still bad, and likely, second and third waves will occur, requiring more actions; but it gets less severe once time goes by, especially when coupled with advancements in finding at least somewhat effective medicines; or finally, vaccine.
Another option, instead of pulse-width-modulating the response, is to adjust the level of social isolation (and other means; but social isolation is the biggest contributor) in a continuous, non-step-like manner, to regulate the number of cases.
thinkfat:
--- Quote from: Nominal Animal on March 18, 2020, 12:28:59 pm ---I've started seeing signs that people are trying to actually help each other much more than before, and that could be a decisive factor with respect to the results. But, if people see others ignoring the rules, they are more likely to break the rules themselves, which can negate the entire group effort.
--- End quote ---
Really? I'd more expect public shaming of the offenders. The Finnish people are said to be extremely sensitive to being judged by their peers, no?
Nominal Animal:
--- Quote from: thinkfat on March 18, 2020, 12:36:15 pm ---Really? I'd more expect public shaming of the offenders. The Finnish people are said to be extremely sensitive to being judged by their peers, no?
--- End quote ---
Social pressure only works in groups of less than 2,000 or so people. In cities like Helsinki, where a lot of people have moved to the city as young adults, anonymity is used as a shield against social pressure. It is like backlash, after growing up in smaller circles where everybody knew you; suddenly you find yourself having the ability to sidestep all social pressure, and do what you want: it's not like they know you.
I do see a lot of young people just completely disregarding any quarantine efforts. However, I've also seen indications I haven't seen here before, youngsters occasionally offering help to older people they don't know. That could have been just a random occurrence, though.
What I do know, is that Finns will quietly (grumbling to themselves and their friends) do what they are told, as long as everyone has to do the same.
You let any subset of people off the hook, and very soon nobody will do it. That sort of fairness is at the core of being a Finn. "Is there really a need for social distancing, when our borders are kept open for humanitarian immigration?" "If humanitarian immigrants get to travel as they wish, why should I stay home?" It is this last one, that will bite Finland in the ass, I believe.
Now that we know that the virus becomes infectitious within a day or two, while the symptoms take around five days to become apparent, social distancing -- or whatever that makes people who believe they are not infected to behave as if they were, and stop spreading the virus around -- and quarantines are even more important than originally believed. When the symptoms are detectable, the person has been spreading the virus already for days. That is what we must try to limit here.
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