General > General Technical Chat
Covid 19 virus
Mr. Scram:
--- Quote from: blueskull on March 18, 2020, 04:24:28 pm ---Herd immunity is gained by infecting or vaccinating P amount of population where P is at least 1-1/R. For COVID19, R0 is estimated to be 3, so P must be above 2/3.
Even if UK has the best health care and infinite resource to take care of everyone, it would at best be able to get mortality rate down to 1%.
1% of 66.7% of 66M population is 440k assuming no vaccine comes out soon. WW2 killed 450K British people including civilians. Whatever book Boris was reading, it must be as deadly as Mein Kampf.
66.7% is a big number, but it is still feasible, if killing 440k people is an option.
For measles, its R0 is higher, and thus its P must also be higher. Its estimated R0 is 12~18. Let's take 12, then P must be above 92% to eradicate it. The current vaccination rate is 86%.
The previous calculation was based on R=R0, but in reality R can be reduced if protection measures such as locking down and mandatory mask wearing are implemented.
With reduction of R, there is reduction of P, thus saving of lives.
I see no reason why surrender is a good idea, even if herd immunity is used as a last line of defense weapon.
--- End quote ---
It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked. It's not unlikely the period after the major wave has unusually low numbers of people dying as the more fragile citizens are already gone. The vast majority of the population has much better chances than 1 in 100 and a small portion is at significant risk.
paulca:
--- Quote from: Mr. Scram on March 18, 2020, 06:42:01 pm ---It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked. It's not unlikely the period after the major wave has unusually low numbers of people dying as the more fragile citizens are already gone. The vast majority of the population has much better chances than 1 in 100 and a small portion is at significant risk.
--- End quote ---
It was the second wave of the Spanish flu that killed nearly every person it infected.
maginnovision:
--- Quote from: Mr. Scram on March 18, 2020, 06:42:01 pm ---
--- Quote from: blueskull on March 18, 2020, 04:24:28 pm ---Herd immunity is gained by infecting or vaccinating P amount of population where P is at least 1-1/R. For COVID19, R0 is estimated to be 3, so P must be above 2/3.
Even if UK has the best health care and infinite resource to take care of everyone, it would at best be able to get mortality rate down to 1%.
1% of 66.7% of 66M population is 440k assuming no vaccine comes out soon. WW2 killed 450K British people including civilians. Whatever book Boris was reading, it must be as deadly as Mein Kampf.
66.7% is a big number, but it is still feasible, if killing 440k people is an option.
For measles, its R0 is higher, and thus its P must also be higher. Its estimated R0 is 12~18. Let's take 12, then P must be above 92% to eradicate it. The current vaccination rate is 86%.
The previous calculation was based on R=R0, but in reality R can be reduced if protection measures such as locking down and mandatory mask wearing are implemented.
With reduction of R, there is reduction of P, thus saving of lives.
I see no reason why surrender is a good idea, even if herd immunity is used as a last line of defense weapon.
--- End quote ---
It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked. It's not unlikely the period after the major wave has unusually low numbers of people dying as the more fragile citizens are already gone. The vast majority of the population has much better chances than 1 in 100 and a small portion is at significant risk.
--- End quote ---
The coronavirus will almost certainly kill me but the flu wouldn't and it's pretty unlikely I'd die randomly anyway. I have severe asthma and just got discharged from the hospital for a pneumomediastinum. Anybody with COPD issues, or alpha1-antitrypsin deficiency is at much higher risk to this than most anything else they would have caught otherwise. This isn't something you should dismiss as just slightly accelerating the inevitable as it can kill a lot of people who otherwise have a lot of time left.
thinkfat:
--- Quote from: paulca on March 18, 2020, 06:51:14 pm ---
--- Quote from: Mr. Scram on March 18, 2020, 06:42:01 pm ---It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked. It's not unlikely the period after the major wave has unusually low numbers of people dying as the more fragile citizens are already gone. The vast majority of the population has much better chances than 1 in 100 and a small portion is at significant risk.
--- End quote ---
It was the second wave of the Spanish flu that killed nearly every person it infected.
--- End quote ---
Interestingly, the high total fatality count of the second wave was atypical and (according to Wikipedia) is attributed to the conditions in the front trenches during WW1. The second wave spread there and the severely sick soldiers were moved out of the battlefield in crowded trains, spreading the virus like crazy. It's atypical because (usually) the deadlier a virus strain, the less chance it gets for reproduction. Due to the conditions during WW1 the selection was reversed.
not1xor1:
--- Quote from: VK3DRB on March 18, 2020, 03:00:53 am ---Daughter in France now has the symptoms of the corona virus, after someone at her work got it. She cannot go to hospital because the hospitals are now overwhelmed and there a serious lack of testing capability. The streets are in lock-down by law, but some people are ignoring it. The disease appears to be a lot more widespread than these figures are showing...
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
I don't think we will ever know how many people got this virus. Like the 1919 flu, the final figures will be just estimates.
--- End quote ---
I wish her a prompt recover.
In any case here in Italy they hospitalize just people with severe symptoms.
Most of affected cases are just quarantined at home as they manage to get over the disease with just flue-like symptoms.
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