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Covid 19 virus
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not1xor1:

--- Quote from: flyte on March 18, 2020, 06:35:13 pm ---We're in the wild guessing range so it seems. There is shortage of everything, including test kits. So figures are off. The WHO wants countries to test more so they get their numbers right, but what do you do when there's a limited amount of tests left in the field? They mainly reserve them for hospitalized patients or severe cases. Others with suspect symptoms are told to stay at home and call emergency when its gets really worse, period.

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the problem is not (just) the shortage (or cost) of test kits.
It is logistic.
You need trained people (who are already busy with people in the hospitals) with full protective devices to test mr A and then test mr B ensuring you do not transmit the virus from A to B. It takes lots of time and resources. Both of which we lack for sure.
not1xor1:

--- Quote from: Mr. Scram on March 18, 2020, 06:42:01 pm ---It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked. It's not unlikely the period after the major wave has unusually low numbers of people dying as the more fragile citizens are already gone. The vast majority of the population has much better chances than 1 in 100 and a small portion is at significant risk.

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absolutely wrong
even lots of young and fit people would die without intensive care and expensive machinery to help them breath (and some is diying notwithstanding that)
those kind of people are not usually affected by the flue
hamster_nz:

--- Quote from: imo on March 18, 2020, 04:51:17 pm ---
--- Quote from: blueskull on March 18, 2020, 04:24:28 pm ---..
Even if UK has the best health care and infinite resource to take care of everyone, it would at best be able to get mortality rate down to 1%.

--- End quote ---
Where this 1% comes from??

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Generally mentioned parameters:

Without proactive testing, around 25% of infected people get tested - others have mild/no symptoms and don't get tested.

10% of those tested positive require hospitalization (~ 2.5% if testing a large proportion of population)

3.4% of those tested positive die (~ 1% if testing a large proportion of population).

If you want to check these numbers have a look at South Korea, who have been testing the crap out of people: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/ Currently 8,413 cases, and 84 deaths. They have performed more than 4 tests per thousand people. Compared to say the USA's 0.026 tests per thousand. (see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/ )

floobydust:
Finally some recent research data on the fomites.  SARS-CoV-2 (formerly called HCoV-19) Stability Similar to Original SARS Virus.
New Coronavirus Stable for Hours on Surfaces

"... detectable in aerosols for up to three hours, up to four hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to two to three days on plastic and stainless steel."
Half-life: "... Half-life about 66 minutes for half the virus particles to lose function if they are in an aerosol droplet. That means that after another hour and six minutes (two hours and 12 minutes in total), three-quarters of the virus particles will be essentially inactivated but 25 per cent will still be viable. The amount of viable virus at the end of the third hour will be down to 12.5 per cent, according to the research led by Neeltje van Doremalen of NIAID's Montana facility at Rocky Mountain Laboratories.
On stainless steel, it takes five hours 38 minutes for half of the virus particles to become inactive. On plastic, the half-life is six hours 49 minutes, researchers found.
On cardboard, the half-life was about 3.5 hours, but the researchers said there was a lot of variability in those results "so we advise caution" interpreting that number."

Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1
"We found that the stability of SARS-CoV-2 was similar to that of SARS-CoV-1 under the experimental circumstances tested. This indicates that differences in the epidemiologic characteristics of these viruses probably arise from other factors, including high viral loads in the upper respiratory tract and the potential for persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 to shed and transmit the virus while asymptomatic.3,4  Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is plausible, since the virus can remain viable and infectious in aerosols for hours and on surfaces up to days (depending on the inoculum shed). These findings echo those with SARS-CoV-1, in which these forms of transmission were associated with nosocomial spread and super-spreading events,5 and they provide information for pandemic mitigation efforts.."
Cerebus:

--- Quote from: james_s on March 18, 2020, 06:27:04 pm ---I think a lot of the wackos are just hoarders, you see the same thing with test equipment.

--- End quote ---

[Fx: Foghorn Leghorn accent] Now hold, I say, hold on. Ya need to be careful saying things like that around here. It could get real ugly real fast...  :)
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