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Covid 19 virus

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Mr. Scram:

--- Quote from: thinkfat on March 18, 2020, 10:06:21 pm ---Google search for "corona virus age bracket", first hit:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-new-age-analysis-of-risk-confirms-young-adults-not-invincible/


--- Quote ---The CDC does not have complete data (such as on use of an ICU) for all counted cases, and therefore gave a range for its estimates.

More than raw numbers, the percent of total cases gives a sense of the risk to different age groups. For instance, just 1.6% to 2.5% of 123 infected people 19 and under were admitted to hospitals; none needed intensive care and none has died.

But of the 144 cases in people 85 and older, 31% to 71% were hospitalized and 6.3% to 29% needed intensive care. The death rate in that age group was 10% to 27%.

In contrast, among people 20 to 44, 14% to 21% of 705 cases were admitted to hospitals and 2% to 4% to ICUs; 0.1% to 0.2% died.

--- End quote ---

So, yes, if you're not already in your twenties, chances are you just shrug it off. But in every other age bracket, chances are you're in for hospitalization and even ICU treatment.

--- End quote ---
I guess you could argue about definitions but I'd qualify that as a rather small percentage, especially as the reported patients are likely the tip of a bigger iceberg with people unaware of their infection or just staying at home for a few days. The numbers or stories don't seem to reflect healthy people needing a lot of help. Elderly or people with pre-existing conditions are at risk and tend to need some to a lot of help.

Mr. Scram:

--- Quote from: flyte on March 18, 2020, 11:14:12 pm ---Well the Italians did and we're seeing it now too. So you will be next to see it.

--- End quote ---
Please quote numbers and sources. Gloomy prophecies aren't helpful.

james_s:

--- Quote from: Mr. Scram on March 18, 2020, 09:21:05 pm ---
--- Quote from: thinkfat on March 18, 2020, 09:13:43 pm ---Even if the young and healthy won't die, it still means that many of them will need intensive care in order not to.

--- End quote ---
Do they? I'm not really seeing that right now.

--- End quote ---

So far that matches all the official data I've come across too. Children very rarely show more than very mild symptoms, the severity rises with age but even in middle age a majority have nothing more than normal cold/flu-like symptoms. Beyond age 60 the risk of serious complications rises dramatically, although the same is true of the flu.

Last I heard, the flu was responsible for 12,000 deaths so far this season in the USA. The extreme disparity in reaction between the flu and Covid does not appear rational to me.

"Chances are" implies a majority. If 70% of infections resulted in hospitalization then I'd consider it reasonable to say that "chances are you will end up in the hospital if you are infected" but in reality "chances are" you will recover without complications regardless of your age group if you are in reasonable overall health. That doesn't mean it is guaranteed or that there is not a very real risk but a substantial majority are recovering on their own.

iMo:

--- Quote from: flyte on March 18, 2020, 11:06:25 pm ---
--- Quote from: Mr. Scram on March 18, 2020, 06:42:01 pm ---It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked. It's not unlikely the period after the major wave has unusually low numbers of people dying as the more fragile citizens are already gone. The vast majority of the population has much better chances than 1 in 100 and a small portion is at significant risk.

--- End quote ---

No way. Currently there are people on intensive care here in the 30-50 age group. Take the breathing equipment away and they might die. A regular flu does not put a substantial part of the healthy population on intensive care in a matter of weeks. And then there is more: doctors say patients who recover may face damaged lung tissue and be affected for life. That's not your regular flu.

--- End quote ---

Pre-existing conditions add percentages. Many of the 30-50 age "healthy" persons (especially in Europe and US) posses some of them, without knowing about it..



Mr. Scram:

--- Quote from: flyte on March 18, 2020, 11:06:25 pm ---No way. Currently there are people on intensive care here in the 30-50 age group. Take the breathing equipment away and they might die. A regular flu does not put a substantial part of the healthy population on intensive care in a matter of weeks. And then there is more: doctors say patients who recover may face damaged lung tissue and be affected for life. That's not your regular flu.

--- End quote ---
I disagree. The regular flu costs many lives every year and that's despite it being both heavily monitored and fought with extensive flu shot programs. I don't think people understand the effort that goes into keeping the flu manageable. Yet that too is something most healthy people shrug off or sit out.

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