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| Covid 19 virus |
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| Mr. Scram:
--- Quote from: Cerebus on March 19, 2020, 01:03:33 am ---Based on figures here: 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary Burden Estimates The estimated case fatality ratio (all ages) for seasonal influenza in the USA in this year's flu season is between 0.04% and 0.15%. The estimated age weighted case fatality ratio for SARS-Covid-2 based on the Imperial College data is 1.23%. That's a 6.2 to 30.7 times higher case fatality ratio for SARS-Covid-2 than for this year's seasonal flu. Given that there is no pre-existing community immunity to SARS-Covid-2 whereas there is for flu the absolute number of cases is going to be higher than for flu, for which the CDC estimate there where between 36 - 51 million cases this year (crudely 10 - 20% of the population). If SARS-Covid-2 was responsible for only as few cases of infection as flu has been in the US this year there would be between 442,800 - 627,300 Covid related deaths (compared to the estimate for flu this year of 22,000 - 55,000 deaths). So anybody who still thinks this is only as bad as flu, and that unnecessary fuss is being made, think again. --- End quote --- The article posted a few posts up details how we don't have reliable numbers and the ones we do have are likely skewed. It's still a situation we need to take seriously. |
| Cerebus:
--- Quote from: Bud on March 19, 2020, 12:45:53 am --- --- Quote from: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 12:10:10 am ---The long story short is that people need to calm the fuck down, stop endlessly rewatching and rehashing the same shit and take some sensible precautions. Maybe turn off the tv for a bit and do some sowing. --- End quote --- How about assholes stop visiting this thread if they have nothing to say. --- End quote --- As opposed, obviously, to your valued, reasoned, contributions so far: --- Quote from: Bud on March 17, 2020, 07:16:55 pm ---The Goddamn experts can go to hell. It were them saying 3 weeks ago that there is no need to close the borders and they will never do it. Fuck your experts. --- End quote --- --- Quote from: Bud on March 17, 2020, 03:12:16 pm ---When things go hairy, the last thing people should be doing is listening to "advice from the experts". --- End quote --- --- Quote from: Bud on March 04, 2020, 06:06:30 pm ---India has found a cure for Covid ! https://qz.com/india/1811526/bizarre-coronavirus-remedies-suggested-by-indian-politicians/amp/ --- End quote --- and so on. If you believe your own advice to be good, perhaps you might take it yourself? |
| Mr. Scram:
--- Quote from: Sredni on March 19, 2020, 12:24:10 am ---10 thousand are nothing compared to the damage Covid-19 can cause. You are comparing the maximum current of a small signal diode with the maximum current of a power diode. It's not panic, it's awareness of the risks necessary to mitigate the deadly outcome. Do the math, and compute after how many days your country will run out of hospital beds. The flu is a joke in comparison. And yes, the flu is scaringly deadly. But by comparison this is far worse. I mean, have any of you guys seen what is happening in Italy? The hospital overwhelmed? The cemeteries overwhelmed? Do you think it's even slightly comparable to the flu? People who think it's not that different from the flu is the cause of the unnecessary spread. And that unnecessary spread is the cause of the hospitals being overwhelmed. And that leads to unnecessary deaths. And the problem is that I called bullshit a bullshit? It's like watching frogs being slowly boiled. Hey Dave, it's still too soon for that image? --- End quote --- Calm down. Remember to breathe. Frenzied posting about how Italy is burning down isn't helping anyone, especially when you consistently omit to post numbers and sources. Less emotions and more facts. You also may want to read the article posted before. https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ |
| Mr. Scram:
--- Quote from: Bud on March 19, 2020, 12:45:53 am ---How about assholes stop visiting this thread if they have nothing to say. --- End quote --- Yes, please. |
| Sredni:
--- Quote from: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 01:22:37 am ---Calm down. Remember to breathe. Frenzied posting about how Italy is burning down isn't helping anyone, especially when you consistently omit to post numbers and sources. --- End quote --- Numbers? Sources? Do you really believe this is made up? The numbers in Italy come from the institutions there, namely the "Protezione Civile". You can read them on any 'Coronavirus counter', for example the one run by Johns Hopkins University. They match. The "Eco di Bergamo" newspaper had ten pages of obituaries, when usually there is only one. Does this tell you something about how silly is it to talk about the incidence of the number of tests on the CFR? If the mortality was 10, 20 or 60 times less then EDIT: the current CFR and hence comparable to EDIT the flu you would not see that many deaths. All the hospitals of Lombardy are running out of ICUs. And several dozens patients had already been offloaded to other regions. --- Quote --- Less emotions and more facts. You also may want to read the article posted before. https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ --- End quote --- Oh, I have read it. And I have already seen this before . There is always the odd virologist or odd epidemiologist who makes this kind of predictions. There were one or two in Italy as well, now they have retracted or are nowhere to be found. And they were considered highly esteemed professionals in their field. Probably excellent doctors, a bit weak in math. Have you read the comments? Someone there is asking where did he pull that number from. Do you think you are original? I've seen this going on in Italy, in Spain, in France, in UK and now in the US. It is almost unbelievable how similar the patter is, despite all the cultural differences. The really sad part is that I do not need to convince you. You will see for yourself. Then, when you will try to warn people from other countries that this is not a statistical artifact, they will probably tell you "calm down, breathe". I hope you won't find the latter difficult. |
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