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Covid 19 virus
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james_s:

--- Quote from: Cerebus on March 19, 2020, 12:21:21 am ---
--- Quote from: james_s on March 18, 2020, 11:29:11 pm ---The flu is very dangerous and potentially quite lethal, we have a safe, fairly effective, readily available and inexpensive vaccine and yet we have countless people too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated.

--- End quote ---

As you're talking about the US, don't forget the people who can't get it for free but can't afford it - typical price in the US if you have to pay yourself $40. Multiply that by number of family members and that's a big chunk of cash for some people. So it's not just people who are "too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated" as you characterise it.

--- End quote ---

Mine was something like $18, I paid out of pocket at Costco and didn't even try to see if my insurance would cover it. If you can't afford $18 for something that important then you should be eligible to get it for free.

That aside, there are loads of people for whom the cost is not an issue, they simply can't be bothered to get one, or they've bought into the anti-vax hogwash and refuse.
james_s:

--- Quote from: Cerebus on March 19, 2020, 01:03:33 am ---Based on figures here: 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary Burden Estimates

The estimated case fatality ratio (all ages) for seasonal influenza in the USA in this year's flu season is between 0.04% and 0.15%. The estimated age weighted case fatality ratio for SARS-Covid-2 based on the Imperial College data is 1.23%. That's a 6.2 to 30.7 times higher case fatality ratio for SARS-Covid-2 than for this year's seasonal flu.

Given that there is no pre-existing community immunity to SARS-Covid-2 whereas there is for flu the absolute number of cases is going to be higher than for flu, for which the CDC estimate there where between 36 - 51 million cases this year (crudely 10 - 20% of the population). If SARS-Covid-2 was responsible for only as few cases of infection as flu has been in the US this year there would be between 442,800 - 627,300 Covid related deaths (compared to the estimate for flu this year of 22,000 - 55,000 deaths).

So anybody who still thinks this is only as bad as flu, and that unnecessary fuss is being made, think again.

--- End quote ---


What I think is that it is virtually irrelevant because we're so focused on reacting to the crisis that nobody is flying the plane and it's going to crash, making the rest of the issue moot. If the whole system comes crashing down people are going to be dying of all sorts of stuff because they won't have access to medical care. The number one priority HAS to be to keep the world running because everything else fully depends on that. Do you think Covid is just going to go away after a few weeks? What do we do when it pops up again? Do we shut everything down indefinitely until we're all unemployed and homeless?


maginnovision:

--- Quote from: james_s on March 19, 2020, 02:21:54 am ---
--- Quote from: Cerebus on March 19, 2020, 12:21:21 am ---
--- Quote from: james_s on March 18, 2020, 11:29:11 pm ---The flu is very dangerous and potentially quite lethal, we have a safe, fairly effective, readily available and inexpensive vaccine and yet we have countless people too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated.

--- End quote ---

As you're talking about the US, don't forget the people who can't get it for free but can't afford it - typical price in the US if you have to pay yourself $40. Multiply that by number of family members and that's a big chunk of cash for some people. So it's not just people who are "too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated" as you characterise it.

--- End quote ---

Mine was something like $18, I paid out of pocket at Costco and didn't even try to see if my insurance would cover it. If you can't afford $18 for something that important then you should be eligible to get it for free.

That aside, there are loads of people for whom the cost is not an issue, they simply can't be bothered to get one, or they've bought into the anti-vax hogwash and refuse.

--- End quote ---

I've only had 1 job where they didn't bring people in to vaccinate everyone. I believe drug stores typically have no and low cost flu shot options. Insurance often covers flu shots. There are usually places where you can get it free when you live in moderate to large cities. The above "$40 being typical" is definitely not true.
Mr. Scram:

--- Quote from: Sredni on March 19, 2020, 02:09:45 am ---Numbers? Sources?
Do you really believe this is made up?
The numbers in Italy come from the institutions there, namely the "Protezione Civile". You can read them on any 'Coronavirus counter', for example the one run by Johns Hopkins University. They match.
The "Eco di Bergamo" newspaper had ten pages of obituaries, when usually there is only one.
Does this tell you something about how silly is it to talk about the incidence of the number of tests on the CFR?
If the mortality was 10, 20 or 60 times less then EDIT: the current CFR and hence comparable to EDIT the flu you would not see that many deaths.
All the hospitals of Lombardy are running out of ICUs. And several dozens patients had already been offloaded to other regions.

Oh, I have read it. And I have already seen this before . There is always the odd virologist or odd epidemiologist who makes this kind of predictions. There were one or two in Italy as well, now they have retracted or are nowhere to be found. And they were considered highly esteemed professionals in their field.

Probably excellent doctors, a bit weak in math.
Have you read the comments? Someone there is asking where did he pull that number from.

Do you think you are original?
I've seen this going on in Italy, in Spain, in France, in UK and now in the US. It is almost unbelievable how similar the patter is, despite all the cultural differences.

The really sad part is that I do not need to convince you.
You will see for yourself.

Then, when you will try to warn people from other countries that this is not a statistical artifact, they will probably tell you "calm down, breathe". I hope you won't find the latter difficult.

--- End quote ---
Please avoid the false dilemma where people who aren't joining your panic are supposedly of the opinion this situation is made up. No one is saying nothing is going on. However, you keep using rousing and alarmist language yet do far have posted nothing more substantial than some casual US news coverage. I don't think there's much discussion to be had about that. Without a tangible understanding of what's going on we're definitely going under so we need to look, see and act.
Cerebus:

--- Quote from: maginnovision on March 19, 2020, 02:52:01 am ---
--- Quote from: james_s on March 19, 2020, 02:21:54 am ---
--- Quote from: Cerebus on March 19, 2020, 12:21:21 am ---
--- Quote from: james_s on March 18, 2020, 11:29:11 pm ---The flu is very dangerous and potentially quite lethal, we have a safe, fairly effective, readily available and inexpensive vaccine and yet we have countless people too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated.

--- End quote ---

As you're talking about the US, don't forget the people who can't get it for free but can't afford it - typical price in the US if you have to pay yourself $40. Multiply that by number of family members and that's a big chunk of cash for some people. So it's not just people who are "too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated" as you characterise it.

--- End quote ---

Mine was something like $18, I paid out of pocket at Costco and didn't even try to see if my insurance would cover it. If you can't afford $18 for something that important then you should be eligible to get it for free.

That aside, there are loads of people for whom the cost is not an issue, they simply can't be bothered to get one, or they've bought into the anti-vax hogwash and refuse.

--- End quote ---

I've only had 1 job where they didn't bring people in to vaccinate everyone. I believe drug stores typically have no and low cost flu shot options. Insurance often covers flu shots. There are usually places where you can get it free when you live in moderate to large cities. The above "$40 being typical" is definitely not true.

--- End quote ---

For what it's worth the figures came from here Where to Get Free or the Cheapest Flu Shots (updated 2020) but the exact cost is irrelevant as I was taking issue with the "too lazy" or "too crazy" characterisation being made about people from the US by someone from the US when, as we all know, with high American health costs, access to vaccination can be a problem for some people. Just seemed unfair to that class of people.
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