General > General Technical Chat
Covid 19 virus
Cerebus:
--- Quote from: SerieZ on March 19, 2020, 01:51:58 pm ---Our [Swiss] Hospitals offer better Service than anything I have ever seen outside Switzerland and I am pretty sure US Healthcare is the best money can buy
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--- End quote ---
--- Quote from: SerieZ on March 19, 2020, 01:51:58 pm ---...I rather get ill here than to wait for months on treatment or sitting in an overcrowded hospital with poorly payed and overworked personal.
--- End quote ---
So which is it, Swiss hospitals are the best, or overcrowded with "poorly payed and overworked personal"? You claim that people are making points for politics sake, yet you contradict yourself - which tends to be the mark of someone arguing from conviction rather than from fact i.e. politically.
Anyway, this whole fuss about the US healthcare system arose from a very minor point about flu vaccination. Let's all please keep to the topic at hand and not get sidetracked further. Yes, it is inevitable that political issues come up in a discussion about a world-wide epidemic and various countries response to that but let's try and keep the mindless, divisive side-taking out of it.
Mr. Scram:
"Our country is burning down but yours is burning down more!"
Mr. Scram:
--- Quote from: Sredni on March 19, 2020, 02:39:58 pm ---Look at South Korea, Hong Kong and Vietnnam.
The low mortality rate in SK is linked to the high level of testing but not because of a statistical artifact, it's because by testing early they can isolate the infected before they can get in contact with the more fragile portion of the population.
How do I know it's not an artifact (provided the strain is the same as in Europe)? Because the number of deaths in certain parts of Italy show that there are ten times more deaths than in previous years. This data is public. Today there were army trucks in Bergamo to take the corpses away. This is not something that you see every flu season. As a matter of fact, nobody still alive today has ever seen that.
Good like in thinking that with extensive testing the number of asymptomatics will drive down the mortality. Yes, it will, but by a point or two - you will still end up with a figure ten times more deadly than the ordinary flu. If anything, this is comparable to the Spanish (or should I call it Kansas?) flu. The big difference being that we have the same mortality with 21st century technology.
What to do is shown by the countries above.
Lockdown, early testing, isolation, disinfection.
Convert industries to produce masks and respirators (there is money to be done there, if you are a capitalist) - they did it in China, South Korea, Japan, and now Italy and the US (with the Defense Act)
But most importantly, learn some math (even basic math) and stop playing this down.
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Testing is only a small part of the puzzle and due to the incubation time and non symptomatic patients it's unlikely to be the silver bullet. Important differences between Italy and South Korea are that Italy has an unusually old population and South Korea a young one. We've all seen the statistics how age impacts susceptibility. Another factor may be that Italians are heavy smokers whereas only a small percentage of South Koreans smoke.
Statistics are easy to misread, especially when you're in a panic. Add a sizeable serving of confirmation bias and it's a dangerous recipe when not handled with care. We need to carefully look at the statistics we see you use and post so little as that's the only thing that can get us out of this situation.
coppice:
--- Quote from: Sredni on March 19, 2020, 02:39:58 pm ---The low mortality rate in SK is linked to the high level of testing but not because of a statistical artifact, it's because by testing early they can isolate the infected before they can get in contact with the more fragile portion of the population.
How do I know it's not an artifact (provided the strain is the same as in Europe)? Because the number of deaths in certain parts of Italy show that there are ten times more deaths than in previous years. This data is public. Today there were army trucks in Bergamo to take the corpses away. This is not something that you see every flu season. As a matter of fact, nobody still alive today has ever seen that.
--- End quote ---
Countries in East Asia are getting used to waves of infection, and they've learned what works and what doesn't. They've had SARS, and bird flu, and swine flu, and MERS and they are getting used to epidemic management. Finding the infected quickly, and isolating them is a big win (i.e. test as soon as someone realises they might have an issue, SK style). Look for local environmental issues. Many of the people who died of SARS in HK lived in one corner of one tower, due to a broken sewer pipe that was letting the infection spread in that spot. The cruise ships had so much trouble with coronavirus, because they didn't learn from this, and missed how much central air cons would make things worse if people were trapped in their cabins. Some people saw that coming, but were ignored.
coppice:
--- Quote from: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 03:04:52 pm ---Another factor may be that Italians are heavy smokers whereas only a small percentage of South Koreans smoke.
--- End quote ---
I guess you haven't been to South Korea.
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