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Covid 19 virus
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james_s:

--- Quote from: edavid on March 19, 2020, 05:54:09 pm ---
--- Quote from: james_s on March 19, 2020, 05:26:13 pm ---That is essentially what I was getting at, it's not just me that is screwed but everybody. The #1 priority needs to be keep the economy going because if that all comes crashing down then everything else is moot.

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/coronavirus-will-bankrupt-more-people-than-it-kills-%E2%80%94-and-thats-the-real-global-emergency/ar-BB116Wlf

--- End quote ---

Yeah, I don't believe that.  The US is a rich country, and even if the economy were completely shut down for a month, we could afford it.  What we don't have is a lot of excess healthcare capacity.  Even if CV was no worse than flu, we can't handle a whole year's worth of sick people and deaths compressed into a month.

--- End quote ---


Don't be so sure. The dot com bust and the recession in 2008 were devastating and took years to recover from, this could lead into another Great Depression which took a major world war to break out of. Numerous businesses around me have already laid off large numbers of people, the dominoes are falling and it may be impossible to stop. We may be a wealthy country but millions of people live paycheck to paycheck and everything is intertwined. One thing goes down and that starts pulling other things down, we have seen the same on a rare few occasions with the power grid resulting in massive blackouts. The whole thing is a house of cards that is quite fragile. We are not immune to a catastrophic collapse.
nctnico:

--- Quote from: Nominal Animal on March 19, 2020, 05:28:08 pm ---The Finnish numbers are a complete lie, by the way: only some "special" patients get to be tested.
They say this is because of lack of resources for testing,

--- End quote ---
The same over here but what does testing lots of people actually accomplish right now? Nothing because in the end you can't catch all cases if you are not going to test everyone in a country. The point where mass-testing serves a purpose (containment) is far behind us.

In the Netherlands they are going to test blood and plasma (past and future donations) from donors for Corona anti-bodies to get solid numbers on how many people have been infected in total. From there they can get some solid data on how many people got infected and from where the infection has spread.
james_s:

--- Quote from: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 06:10:42 pm ---I just went shopping and here it looks like the hoarding craze is dying down. Some shelves still were emptier than usual but everything looked a lot more normal. I asked staff and they confirmed things were a lot less hectic than they have been. It seems supply is picking up and demand is dying down.

--- End quote ---

Control loop theory applies. The system experienced a massive step change that it was not tuned to cope with. Now it will likely overshoot and oscillate a bit for some time then settle down.
SiliconWizard:

--- Quote from: nctnico on March 19, 2020, 06:23:48 pm ---
--- Quote from: Nominal Animal on March 19, 2020, 05:28:08 pm ---The Finnish numbers are a complete lie, by the way: only some "special" patients get to be tested.
They say this is because of lack of resources for testing,

--- End quote ---
The same over here but what does testing lots of people actually accomplish right now? Nothing because in the end you can't catch all cases if you are not going to test everyone in a country. The point where mass-testing serves a purpose (containment) is far behind us.

--- End quote ---

Maybe it's too late for this now, but every country that did mass-testing early are a lot better off by now than the others.

As to the current situation, we could still use testing as a mitigating step to reduce confinement. Instead of confining EVERYONE, we could just confine people that are either NOT tested yet or tested positive. People tested negative with a valid proof could be waived of confinement. Pretty simple.

rgarito:

--- Quote from: tinhead on March 19, 2020, 05:08:01 pm ---
--- Quote from: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 04:41:55 pm ---No country has infinite resources

--- End quote ---

normally i would say "no, US can print as many Dollars as they wish", but now with Covid-19 they will have soon no paper anymore, or toilet paper will be more worth than Dollar ^^  that means i agree with you, this time.

--- End quote ---

That reinforces a statement I made the other day....  If the economy keeps crashing like this, we (literally) will start to see a regression back to a barter-related economy...  (in Russia, my ex-wife tells me that already is common in the more rural areas, long before this zombie apocalypse even started)
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