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Covid 19 virus

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Simon:
In the Uk the peer to peer lender i use has has to pause withdrawals and update their site to incorporate a queing system. for cash withdrawal.

iMo:
Based on the Diamond Princess cruise ship case (19% infected while people lived in rather suboptimal epidemiological conditions) let us be a little bit optimistic and estimate 8-15% of population infected in EU states (depends on the actual countermeasures applied by a particular country as well as the commitment of their citizens).
 :phew:

not1xor1:

--- Quote from: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 07:56:27 pm ---
--- Quote from: not1xor1 on March 19, 2020, 07:39:10 pm ---patient one in Codogno, Northern Italy, was 38 healthy and fit (he was a runner and an amateur football player)
he had to stay in ICU for a couple of weeks

many other stories like that here (yesterday a 29 years old athlete) with more than 40 thousand positive cases
lots of not so old medical staff are dying too
please stop spreading misinformation as that will encourage people to spread the disease too

for instance refer to this https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-covid-typically-mild-kids.html:

--- Quote ---Researchers analyzed the cases of 731 children in China with laboratory test-confirmed cases of the coronavirus and 1,412 children who were suspected of having COVID-19.

Most of those 2,143 cases were mild, and only one child died. Close to 6% of the children's cases were severe or critical, compared with 18.5% of cases in adults.
--- End quote ---

--- End quote ---
You're severely misrepresenting my statements. I responded to a statement that a large proportion of young people need serious treatment. They don't, with some exceptions also discussed. People older than 60-70 years old represent the overwhelming majority of serious case requiring treatment. This in no way encourages behaviour which spreads the virus. One must be an unprecedented idiot to think you don't need to take precautions if you are unlikely to get seriously ill. This simply doesn't follow from the facts we established. Carelessness kills people even if it's not you. We all play a role in preventing spread.

--- End quote ---

NO - you wrote:

--- Quote ---    It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked.
--- End quote ---

and I replied:

--- Quote ---even lots of young and fit people would die without intensive care and expensive machinery to help them breath (and some is diying notwithstanding that)
--- End quote ---

there is no reference to a proportion, no percentage
healthy and fit people are dying now
without ICU would die even more
THIS IS NOT FLUE

it is completely false that they are
--- Quote ---almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness
--- End quote ---

I showed that even some kids did need ICU in China
I never said a huge proportion of kids
it is you who used the term "almost exclusively"

engrguy42:

--- Quote from: nctnico on March 19, 2020, 09:28:35 pm ---
--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 19, 2020, 08:41:13 pm ---Fyi, the population of the US is approximately 330 million.

As of today, the CDC reports there have been a total of 150 deaths in the US so far from COVID-19.

And of those who contract it, the death rate is around 2 to 4%.

CDC also estimates that in the last 5 months there have been 22,000 - 55,000 deaths from the ordinary flu.

Going overboard with rational precautions is a good thing, but irrational fear is never a good thing.

--- End quote ---
You really are comparing apples to oranges. The flu season is about over but the Corona virus season has just begun! You can safely assume 70% of the people in the US gets infected at some point. Even at a 2% death rate this means over 4 million people will die in the US alone. More if lots of people get sick at the same time and saturate health care.

The only way to avoid this is to buy time through strict quarantine until there is a vaccine that works.

--- End quote ---

I'm not sure where you get your numbers from (eg, 70% of people in the US will get infected), and of course you may be right. Of course nobody knows the future on this, and as an engineer I'm sure you're fully aware how difficult/impossible it is to predict the future of just about ANYTHING, so I suppose anything is possible. Anybody can predict anything about this and nobody can challenge it since there's no real data to support it. 

But in the US it seems like this week the entire country is shutting down. Most stores are closed, schools are closed at least until April, universities are only online, and it seems like everyone is doing what I referred to as "going overboard with rational precautions". It's a very good thing to be overly precautious at this point, IMO, and it makes the most sense IMO to assume it will have a big impact. Like it has in China apparently.

You might want to check the WHO daily updates and look at the actual numbers. Of course, take any numbers with a grain of salt since it's still very early, but my point was that if you take rational precautions now it's far better than choosing the fear approach, because fear causes folks to do stupid stuff like stock up on toilet paper.

IMO, if you look at the numbers, like an engineer, it helps to erase the fear and focus on the facts and taking intelligent precautions, realizing that time is of the essence since this stuff can spread exponentially, and fear just clouds your judgement.

nctnico:
I am looking at the numbers as an engineer. Just look at the WHO documents provided earlier in this thread. From those it is clear that a lockdown will only slow the Corona virus down. As soon as the lockdown is relaxed the spread will continue. A vaccine combined with herd immunity are the only effective weapons we can use. For herd immunity a minimum infection of 60% is needed.

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