Author Topic: Covid 19 virus  (Read 66670 times)

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Offline Marck

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #75 on: March 04, 2020, 10:54:56 am »
This could very well be the case I am not a medical professional so I can’t argue the point.  I will be watching the WHO and Australian government guidelines with interest.  If that is indeed the strategy behind the no mask required policy it will be interesting if there is any fallout.

Probably no fallout here in Australia because we are so apathetic unless we are worried about running out of toilet paper.

M
 

Online NiHaoMike

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #76 on: March 04, 2020, 01:19:38 pm »
if it was just anther Ebola it would have ended by now.  this is something 10x more deadly!  :scared:
It's definitely nowhere as deadly as Ebola, in fact it might not even be 10x as deadly as the "normal" flu.
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Offline splin

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #77 on: March 04, 2020, 01:34:03 pm »
in fact it might not even be 10x as deadly as the "normal" flu.

It might not. But the WHO have just announced that the global death rate is 3.4% which is 34x as deadly as the "normal" flu. But they also say it varies wildly depending on age, gender and country.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-fatality-rates-vary-wildly-depending-on-age-gender-and-medical-history-some-patients-fare-much-worse-than-others-2020-02-26

Quote
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director general of the World Health Organization, delivered new fatality rates for COVID-19 at a press conference Tuesday
Getty Images
Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died, WHO says.

As the COVID-19 spreads, scientists are learning more about the disease’s fatality rate.

“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director general of the World Health Organization, said at a press briefing in Geneva. That’s more than previous estimates that hovered around 2% and the influenza fatality rate of less than 1%.

Tedros said last week the fatality rate in Wuhan, China, considered the epicenter of the outbreak, is between 2% and 4%. Outside of Wuhan, it is thought to be closer to 0.7%, although some estimates put it at closer to 2%. The epidemic is “affecting countries in different ways,” he added.
 

Offline Marco

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #78 on: March 04, 2020, 03:44:46 pm »
interesting how some people are more concerned about wiping their ass!  than if they have enough food or water  :palm:

It's unlikely a pandemic could disrupt the water supply ... it would have to be apocalyptic.

People running on toilet paper was happening in Japan and it was entirely predictable that that would be contagious after it was reported in the news.

PS. a small silver lining, the virus is accelerating some medical trials like intravenous vitamin C. Hope it works out, just lost someone to pneumonia he got from an unrelated hospital stay. Would be nice to have more therapies, especially one so cheap.
« Last Edit: March 04, 2020, 03:48:41 pm by Marco »
 

Offline thinkfat

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #79 on: March 04, 2020, 03:57:16 pm »
Individuals don't care about statistics.
It's also vice versa.
 

Offline SiliconWizard

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #80 on: March 04, 2020, 04:32:27 pm »
in fact it might not even be 10x as deadly as the "normal" flu.

It might not. But the WHO have just announced that the global death rate is 3.4% which is 34x as deadly as the "normal" flu. But they also say it varies wildly depending on age, gender and country.

Yup, and also we obviously have many more cases of flu recorded than cases of this virus so far, so the mortality rate can't really be compared so far (and I hope it doesn't spread as much as "regular" flu so we don't have to know for sure.)

 

Online Cerebus

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #81 on: March 04, 2020, 05:08:46 pm »
Yup, and also we obviously have many more cases of flu recorded than cases of this virus so far, so the mortality rate can't really be compared so far (and I hope it doesn't spread as much as "regular" flu so we don't have to know for sure.)

You can't properly calculate the mortality rate or the case-fatality ratio until an epidemic is over. Mostly because an on-going epidemic involves a lot of ongoing cases where the outcome is, kind of obviously, uncertain.

Just so we're all singing from the same hymn sheet, in epidemiological terms:
  • Mortality rate - the proportion of the general population (i.e. infected and uninfected alike) who become infected and die from a disease in an epidemic. Usually expressed as the number of deaths per 100,000.
  • Case-fatality ratio - the proportion of people who have become infected who will die from a disease in an epidemic. Usually expressed as a percentage.
  • R0 - the basic reproductive ratio - the number of other people that an infected person will infect in turn.

So, best estimates for Covid-19 at the time of writing:
  • Mortality rate - none, the epidemic is still in progress.
  • Case-fatality ratio - 2-3%. Estimates vary widely.
  • R0 - 1.4-3.8
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Offline Bud

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #82 on: March 04, 2020, 06:06:30 pm »
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Offline blueskull

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #83 on: March 04, 2020, 06:11:05 pm »
India has found a cure for Covid !

https://qz.com/india/1811526/bizarre-coronavirus-remedies-suggested-by-indian-politicians/amp/

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Online hamster_nz

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #84 on: March 04, 2020, 08:08:54 pm »
NZ has a third case... unlike the first two, the details are not being announced immediately - somewhat against the stated "information will be made public as soon as we have any details" policy.

I'm picking that this is so a large group related can be informed at the same time.

<complete speculation> A random guess would be that the person is at a school student or a member of staff - hoepfully not.</complete speculation>

Update: Phew, the case is not a student but a parent who has had family members recently return from Iran. They do have children at two different schools, which has been notified.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2020, 12:53:42 am by hamster_nz »
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Online tautech

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #85 on: March 05, 2020, 01:50:19 am »
NZ has a third case... unlike the first two, the details are not being announced immediately - somewhat against the stated "information will be made public as soon as we have any details" policy.
Infected from the family member that bought Corona from Iran. Family now in lockdown.
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Offline blueskull

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #86 on: March 05, 2020, 06:53:38 am »
Is it me or everyone, that Youtube is pushing information from WHO on their front page.

 

Offline aix

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #87 on: March 05, 2020, 07:29:11 am »
Is it me or everyone, that Youtube is pushing information from WHO on their front page.

I am not seeing that (in the UK).
 

Offline blueskull

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #88 on: March 05, 2020, 07:31:11 am »
Is it me or everyone, that Youtube is pushing information from WHO on their front page.

I am not seeing that (in the UK).

I'm seeing that from a Chinese IP address. And yes, you can watch Youtube with a Chinese IP address (without using a VPN to outside mainland China), just with a bit of quirk.
 

Online FriedLogic

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #89 on: March 05, 2020, 02:02:34 pm »
Is it me or everyone, that Youtube is pushing information from WHO on their front page.

Apparently there's a deliberate attempt by some social media companies etc. to promote what they class as reliable info. There's some concern about how much traffic is going to the 'unreliable' sources at the moment.
 

Offline Bud

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #90 on: March 05, 2020, 02:50:35 pm »
I get the same on Digikey web site.
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Offline imo

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #91 on: March 05, 2020, 06:49:12 pm »
There are 2 strains of the covid19 - see the pdf "On the origin and continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2", scientists say :
"S" - less prevalent ancestral version, and
"L"  - more prevalent in the early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan, more aggressive.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2020, 07:17:26 pm by imo »
 
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Online Wallace Gasiewicz

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #92 on: March 05, 2020, 11:18:01 pm »
 

Online Cerebus

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #93 on: March 06, 2020, 12:47:30 am »
Latest study from China:
Mortality lower than 1% for covid19

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/926089?src=WNL_trdalrt_200305_MSCPEDIT&uac=356862FZ&impID=2300885&faf=1

Wally

One of my pet hates, partial reporting of bad reporting of medical literature.

Firstly, the original paper the medscape article is based on is here ("Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China") for anyone who wants to read it.

Secondly the headline "Mortality lower than 1% for covid19" quoted above is actually "COVID-19 Mortality Rate May Be 'Considerably Less Than 1%'" in the Medscape article (Emphasis mine) and, as we will see, that is still inaccurate to the point of uselessness.

Thirdly the phrase 'Considerably Less Than 1%' headlined as a quote in the Medline article doesn't appear anywhere in the actual original paper, it is from a secondary source and it's still a misquote of that source, which doesn't use the phrase either. The original paper found a death rate of 1.4% in the 1099 people in the study, 9% had recovered and 93.6% were still hospitalised, i.e. the outcome for these people still hospitalised is still unknown they may die and push up the mortality rate.

Relevant figures from the actual paper:

Bottom line, the paper adds to the data available; it neither establishes a final death rate for the disease nor reports a figure lower than 1% but instead higher. This is an almost perfect example of how information in a medical journal becomes misinformation once it has been through the hands of a so called journalist and then gets quoted on social media. Never believe a headline medical story until you have tracked down and read the original underlying paper that prompted the story.
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Offline angrybird

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #94 on: March 06, 2020, 12:52:11 am »
How about: Never believe anything you read on the internet or see on TV.  99% of it is disinformation in one way or another  :D
THE CAKE IS A LIE AND THESE NUTHATCH ARE WAY TOO DISTRACTING
 

Offline edy

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #95 on: March 06, 2020, 03:26:30 am »
So I am seeing a bunch of different names for this... apparently "Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)" is now the virus (or disease?) previously known by the provisional name 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), or COVID-19!?!   :-//

Is that to highlight that it produces SARS disease and is basically SARS version 2? Weren't SARS and MERS also coronaviruses? But they were named differently... one based on severe acute, and other Middle East (geographic label)... perhaps those weren't the final names?!?
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Offline blueskull

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #96 on: March 06, 2020, 03:50:29 am »
So I am seeing a bunch of different names for this... apparently "Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)" is now the virus (or disease?) previously known by the provisional name 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), or COVID-19!?!   :-//

Is that to highlight that it produces SARS disease and is basically SARS version 2? Weren't SARS and MERS also coronaviruses? But they were named differently... one based on severe acute, and other Middle East (geographic label)... perhaps those weren't the final names?!?

SARS2 is the name of the virus, COVID19 is the name of the disease, 2019-ncov is the temporary name that is now deprecated.
This virus shows similar but lighter symptoms than SARS, and similar but more transmission paths than SARS. It's 79.6% genetically similar to SARS.
And more importantly, it also shows a severe and acute respiratory syndrome.

SARS was a bad name in the first place as it covers too much than a single disease. It's a symptom, not a reason.
 

Offline Bud

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #97 on: March 06, 2020, 04:30:50 am »
The tonality of CBC, a major Canadian TV broadcaster and government puppet, has changed from the rosy "no worries" propaganda to "it is not a question that the virus will not come, it is when it will come" and "you may need to stock some food and supplies for at least two weeks". So much about listening to and trusting official sources. We have to take care of ourselves and follow our own judgement.
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Offline carloserodriguez

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #98 on: March 06, 2020, 05:09:15 am »
 
- there is the bat derived servere acute respiratory syndrome Corona virus SARS Cov.
- then the new one is server acute respiratory syndrome Corona virus 2. SARS-Cov-2.
- the new Corona strain causes the COVID-19 decease.
 Both are Corona family of viruses..
 

Offline angrybird

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #99 on: March 06, 2020, 05:12:23 am »
Stocking up on food for an illness like this is just ridiculous.  Do you stock up on 2 weeks of food during influenza season? No! Not even 2 days worth!
THE CAKE IS A LIE AND THESE NUTHATCH ARE WAY TOO DISTRACTING
 


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