| General > General Technical Chat |
| Covid 19 virus |
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| thinkfat:
Individuals don't care about statistics. It's also vice versa. |
| SiliconWizard:
--- Quote from: splin on March 04, 2020, 01:34:03 pm --- --- Quote from: NiHaoMike on March 04, 2020, 01:19:38 pm ---in fact it might not even be 10x as deadly as the "normal" flu. --- End quote --- It might not. But the WHO have just announced that the global death rate is 3.4% which is 34x as deadly as the "normal" flu. But they also say it varies wildly depending on age, gender and country. --- End quote --- Yup, and also we obviously have many more cases of flu recorded than cases of this virus so far, so the mortality rate can't really be compared so far (and I hope it doesn't spread as much as "regular" flu so we don't have to know for sure.) |
| Cerebus:
--- Quote from: SiliconWizard on March 04, 2020, 04:32:27 pm ---Yup, and also we obviously have many more cases of flu recorded than cases of this virus so far, so the mortality rate can't really be compared so far (and I hope it doesn't spread as much as "regular" flu so we don't have to know for sure.) --- End quote --- You can't properly calculate the mortality rate or the case-fatality ratio until an epidemic is over. Mostly because an on-going epidemic involves a lot of ongoing cases where the outcome is, kind of obviously, uncertain. Just so we're all singing from the same hymn sheet, in epidemiological terms: * Mortality rate - the proportion of the general population (i.e. infected and uninfected alike) who become infected and die from a disease in an epidemic. Usually expressed as the number of deaths per 100,000. * Case-fatality ratio - the proportion of people who have become infected who will die from a disease in an epidemic. Usually expressed as a percentage. * R0 - the basic reproductive ratio - the number of other people that an infected person will infect in turn. So, best estimates for Covid-19 at the time of writing: * Mortality rate - none, the epidemic is still in progress. * Case-fatality ratio - 2-3%. Estimates vary widely. * R0 - 1.4-3.8 |
| Bud:
India has found a cure for Covid ! https://qz.com/india/1811526/bizarre-coronavirus-remedies-suggested-by-indian-politicians/amp/ |
| hamster_nz:
NZ has a third case... unlike the first two, the details are not being announced immediately - somewhat against the stated "information will be made public as soon as we have any details" policy. I'm picking that this is so a large group related can be informed at the same time. <complete speculation> A random guess would be that the person is at a school student or a member of staff - hoepfully not.</complete speculation> Update: Phew, the case is not a student but a parent who has had family members recently return from Iran. They do have children at two different schools, which has been notified. |
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