General > General Technical Chat
Covid 19 virus
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thinkfat:
Individuals don't care about statistics.
It's also vice versa.
SiliconWizard:

--- Quote from: splin on March 04, 2020, 01:34:03 pm ---
--- Quote from: NiHaoMike on March 04, 2020, 01:19:38 pm ---in fact it might not even be 10x as deadly as the "normal" flu.

--- End quote ---

It might not. But the WHO have just announced that the global death rate is 3.4% which is 34x as deadly as the "normal" flu. But they also say it varies wildly depending on age, gender and country.

--- End quote ---

Yup, and also we obviously have many more cases of flu recorded than cases of this virus so far, so the mortality rate can't really be compared so far (and I hope it doesn't spread as much as "regular" flu so we don't have to know for sure.)

Cerebus:

--- Quote from: SiliconWizard on March 04, 2020, 04:32:27 pm ---Yup, and also we obviously have many more cases of flu recorded than cases of this virus so far, so the mortality rate can't really be compared so far (and I hope it doesn't spread as much as "regular" flu so we don't have to know for sure.)

--- End quote ---

You can't properly calculate the mortality rate or the case-fatality ratio until an epidemic is over. Mostly because an on-going epidemic involves a lot of ongoing cases where the outcome is, kind of obviously, uncertain.

Just so we're all singing from the same hymn sheet, in epidemiological terms:

* Mortality rate - the proportion of the general population (i.e. infected and uninfected alike) who become infected and die from a disease in an epidemic. Usually expressed as the number of deaths per 100,000.
* Case-fatality ratio - the proportion of people who have become infected who will die from a disease in an epidemic. Usually expressed as a percentage.
* R0 - the basic reproductive ratio - the number of other people that an infected person will infect in turn.
So, best estimates for Covid-19 at the time of writing:

* Mortality rate - none, the epidemic is still in progress.
* Case-fatality ratio - 2-3%. Estimates vary widely.
* R0 - 1.4-3.8
Bud:
India has found a cure for Covid !

https://qz.com/india/1811526/bizarre-coronavirus-remedies-suggested-by-indian-politicians/amp/
hamster_nz:
NZ has a third case... unlike the first two, the details are not being announced immediately - somewhat against the stated "information will be made public as soon as we have any details" policy.

I'm picking that this is so a large group related can be informed at the same time.

<complete speculation> A random guess would be that the person is at a school student or a member of staff - hoepfully not.</complete speculation>

Update: Phew, the case is not a student but a parent who has had family members recently return from Iran. They do have children at two different schools, which has been notified.
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