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Covid 19 virus
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nctnico:

--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 19, 2020, 09:54:35 pm ---
--- Quote from: nctnico on March 19, 2020, 09:49:12 pm ---I am looking at the numbers as an engineer. Just look at the WHO documents provided earlier in this thread. From those it is clear that a lockdown will only slow the Corona virus down. As soon as the lockdown is relaxed the spread will continue. A vaccine combined with herd immunity are the only effective weapons we can use.

--- End quote ---

Why didn't that lockdown relaxation phenomena you describe happen with SARS? And MERS?

--- End quote ---
These virusses are more deadly, easier to spot so these literally kill themselves when contained.
not1xor1:
wikipedia is regularly updating data on the pandemic

there is an obvious time lag between Italy and US (or other countries), but you can compare the increase rate both of new cases and deaths

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy#Timeline
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States#Timeline

main article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic
james_s:

--- Quote from: nctnico on March 19, 2020, 09:28:35 pm ---
--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 19, 2020, 08:41:13 pm ---Fyi, the population of the US is approximately 330 million.

As of today, the CDC reports there have been a total of 150 deaths in the US so far from COVID-19.

And of those who contract it, the death rate is around 2 to 4%.

CDC also estimates that in the last 5 months there have been 22,000 - 55,000 deaths from the ordinary flu.

Going overboard with rational precautions is a good thing, but irrational fear is never a good thing.

--- End quote ---
You really are comparing apples to oranges. The flu season is about over but the Corona virus season has just begun! You can safely assume 70% of the people in the US gets infected at some point. Even at a 2% death rate this means over 4 million people will die in the US alone. More if lots of people get sick at the same time and saturate health care.

The only way to avoid this is to buy time through strict quarantine until there is a vaccine that works.

--- End quote ---

An effective vaccine could take a year or more, there is no way people will sit in their houses until then, if they even have a house to sit in. Again the economic impact is going to be catastrophic, the deaths will not be that big of a concern. Even if the numbers are huge, 0.1%-1% is still a small percentage and those will be heavily skewed toward people who are already old and in poor health. Many millions of those same people would die if they become homeless. I cannot understand how someone can be so worried about people getting sick directly and so apparently not worried at all about an economic catastrophe that could leave them homeless and starving.
nctnico:
I already addressed this early but what you are describing is mostly a third world and US problem.
james_s:
Well since I'm in the US I can't just dismiss that, but don't think for a moment that a catastrophic depression couldn't devastate other developed nations. We have a global economy with everything intertwined now.
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