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| Covid 19 virus |
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| nctnico:
--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 19, 2020, 11:05:38 pm ---Wow, I'm impressed at the apparent medical research background of the engineers here, but personally, just like I wouldn't expect a clinical pathologist --- End quote --- Don't overestimate doctors. I had a problem with my wrist which I had to diagnose myself based on an MRI scan. Two specialists couldn't figure it out. Engineering principles apply to almost everything. |
| mzzj:
--- Quote from: nctnico on March 19, 2020, 10:45:48 pm --- The key to containing a virus is catching all people who are infected. The problem with the Covid 19 virus is, is that a large number of people get infected without serious symptoms so these fly below the radar. You can compare Covid19 to a stealth bomber. You don't notice it until it is too late and you have no idea where it hits next. If it would be easy to contain the Covid19 virus then it would have been done already. The SARS outbreak never reached the proportions of Covid19. The Covid19 outbreak started in November 2019. We are almost 3 months further and there is no end in sight. --- End quote --- ^ This. Covid-19 vs SARS : 9000 cases vs 250 000 verified cases and probably at least another 250000 cases untested at the moment. SARS spread to 19 countries, Covid has already spread to every continent and 195 countries(some African countries don't have verified cases yet but that is mostly because of non-existing healtcare and testing) add to that the stealthiness of Covid-19 and you'll see why its such a hard task. Even if you tested every one of 7 billion population and quarantine each of them the virus would rebound back from somewhere eventually. |
| rgarito:
--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 19, 2020, 08:41:13 pm ---Fyi, the population of the US is approximately 330 million. As of today, the CDC reports there have been a total of 150 deaths in the US so far from COVID-19. And of those who contract it, the death rate is around 2 to 4%. CDC also estimates that in the last 5 months there have been 22,000 - 55,000 deaths from the ordinary flu. Going overboard with rational precautions is a good thing, but irrational fear is never a good thing. --- End quote --- This is what we call the calm before the storm. Those of us in Florida who go through hurricanes see this every year. The "but it's only a Cat-1 storm" or "it isn't going to hit here" or "I've been through worse." Yeah... Ask those of us who went through Wilma about cat-1 storms. This isolation/no supplies/no food thing? Been there, done that. We had no electricity for 30 DAYS and you couldn't even get gas for your generators because the gas stations had no power or generators either (now they are mandated to have generators by law). Complacency is NOT your friend. Many have died at hurricane parties... Look at Italy. Their death count just passed China. Let's get out the grade-school math: China population: 1.4 BILLION Italy Population: 60.3 MILLION Yet Italy had more deaths ALREADY than China had.... Methinks China wasn't as truthful about their death counts. Something is SERIOUSLY wrong. |
| coppice:
--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 19, 2020, 10:41:57 pm ---FWIW, I found a news article from last month on what happened to SARS and what might happen to COVID-19: "John Nicholls, clinical professor of pathology at the University of Hong Kong (HKU), said the SARS outbreak was brought to an end in July 2003 by good hygiene practices -- such as frequent hand-washing -- and environmental factors such as high temperature and humidity in the summer months." --- End quote --- Yep, I lived through that. Automated taps were always popular in HK, but during SARS most of the remaining manual taps in public places were replaced with automated ones. The button panels in elevators were covered in plastic film, which was wiped with steriliser every hour, and the film replaced every day. Communal door handles were sterilised every hour. And so on. Wearing a mask when sick was always a practice in Japan, but it would have looked odd in HK. SARS broke any taboo, and huge numbers of HK people wore masks in public. This practice has persisted until today. Large numbers of people in HK now wear masks when they have colds and flu to reduce their effect on others. Then the temperature and humidity rose, and it was all over. The great fear was it would come back at the end of the year, as the temperature fell, but luckily is didn't. --- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 19, 2020, 10:41:57 pm ---"That will be the same for this one," he said. "My feeling is that this is just going to be like SARS and the world is going to get basically a very bad cold for about five months." --- End quote --- There is no guarantee of that, but so far all the bad outbreaks seem to have occurred in places at a similar temperature and humidity, so its probably a typical temperature sensitive virus. --- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 19, 2020, 10:41:57 pm ---Of course, I'm sure in the medical community there are many varied opinions on this, and since I have zero medical experience I can't comment, but at least it seems reasonable to consider that maybe this will go the way of the other coronaviruses and just die out. --- End quote --- Not really. This is well established stuff. There is a reason colds and flu are mostly winter problems. Your chances of catching most flu like virii is considerably reduced if you just keep your nose warm at all times. The rapid rise of mask wearing in HK during SARS probably reduced infection as much by insulating people's noses when they went outside as by reducing the inhalation of the virus. |
| rgarito:
--- Quote from: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 06:59:34 pm --- --- Quote from: james_s on March 19, 2020, 06:52:54 pm ---I read yesterday that there is a problem now with people pulling their money out of banks but I don't know how widespread it is. Don't underestimate the levels of irrational behavior that can be caused by panic, it spreads like a virus itself and leads to all kinds of crazy things and self-fulfilling prophecies. It's a basic human trait, I mean people get killed in stampedes to get cheap discounted junk in stores on black friday sales. Nobody is going to say it's rational to stampede and kill someone over a waffle maker but it happens. --- End quote --- This is one of those rumours we should be careful with. Relaying it can spread irrational fears quickly. It also a stupid thing to do as no one will touch your cash money. I happened to have a larger amount than usual in my wallet and I can't spend it! --- End quote --- The panic shopping has to do with us Americans being brought up that this is "the land of plenty." Everyone assumes that obtaining anything at all is as simple as going to the corner store or going on Amazon. Many people food shop daily, believe it or not. (you'd swear refrigerators haven't been invented yet). And a huge part of the population thinks "cooking" means "putting last night's McDonalds hamburger in the microwave." To say we are spoiled, is an understatement. |
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