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| Covid 19 virus |
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| Someone:
--- Quote from: imo on March 19, 2020, 10:57:11 pm --- --- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 19, 2020, 10:41:57 pm --- -- and environmental factors such as high temperature and humidity in the summer months." --- End quote --- Yep, that is something what we discussed earlier, I would add more UV from sunshine in spring/summer will a) damage the virus on surfaces and in air, b) people exposed to sunshine create vitamin D (it supports immune system). PS: I've been using "damage" instead of "kill" as the virus is not an living organism.. PPS: what the people down under think about it? Covid19 in summer? --- End quote --- Seasonality is much more complex: https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/life-expectancy-deaths/seasonality-of-death/contents/table-of-contents There are larger trends as the causes of death change with time, and the Spanish flu made a noticeable blip in total deaths. |
| rgarito:
--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 19, 2020, 10:25:47 pm ---I think if folks do some research on SARS and MERS and the other coronaviruses from previous years you'll find that once you lock down transmission they kind of die of their own accord. No vaccines, they just die out. No SARS cases since 2004, and very few MERS cases. And has been said they were much worse in terms of % of infected people who ended up dying. I recall reading that SARS died out in around 6 months (?). Unfortunately there isn't much detail I can find on exactly why they just whithered away (and probably wouldn't understand the medical details anyway), but they did. And they're all similar to COVID-19 in terms of being coronaviruses. So again, if you want to be fearful then be my guest. But I prefer to look for facts, and be overly cautious, not fearful, in cases like this. --- End quote --- Remember that COVID-19 is actually SARS-CoV-2. It is closely related to SARS and possibly a mutation of it. |
| hamster_nz:
--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 19, 2020, 09:54:35 pm --- --- Quote from: nctnico on March 19, 2020, 09:49:12 pm ---I am looking at the numbers as an engineer. Just look at the WHO documents provided earlier in this thread. From those it is clear that a lockdown will only slow the Corona virus down. As soon as the lockdown is relaxed the spread will continue. A vaccine combined with herd immunity are the only effective weapons we can use. --- End quote --- Why didn't that lockdown relaxation phenomena you describe happen with SARS? And MERS? --- End quote --- People fell ill at about the same time that they became infectious. This allowed ill people to remove themselves from the wider community before the infection could transfer. This made it possible to drop the effective reproduction rate to below 1.0 (allowing it to die out), without the need to isolating large numbers of seemingly healthy people. |
| VK3DRB:
--- Quote from: imo on March 19, 2020, 12:20:00 pm ---Another Lesson Learned from this situation is the US and EU should return production of some materials, chemicals, equipment and other important goods back to US and EU. It has no sense to have production sites in Far East just because the production costs are ie. 4x lower, and when really needed you have to pay 50x more for it, moreover, you cannot get in time and in the amounts required. Every government at least in EU is complaining today "we don't have this and that handy as it is produced in Far East and to get something off there is difficult, or, it costs you an arm and leg today". These kind of pandemics will repeat much more often in the future with a similar scenario, so we have to be able to produce the stuff at home. --- End quote --- The only reason the West relies on so much stuff made in Asia is greed in its purest form, by corporations, governments and individuals. The West is now reaping what it has sowed. Those Apple fanboys who cannot get the latest iPhone - my heart bleeds :-DD. Electronics manufacturing should return to the West, IMO. Manufacturing is now highly automated, so there is little excuse not to relocate to the West other than much of the skills and infrastructure we once had is now lost. |
| hamster_nz:
--- Quote from: rgarito on March 19, 2020, 11:34:47 pm --- --- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 19, 2020, 10:25:47 pm ---I think if folks do some research on SARS and MERS and the other coronaviruses from previous years you'll find that once you lock down transmission they kind of die of their own accord. No vaccines, they just die out. No SARS cases since 2004, and very few MERS cases. And has been said they were much worse in terms of % of infected people who ended up dying. I recall reading that SARS died out in around 6 months (?). Unfortunately there isn't much detail I can find on exactly why they just whithered away (and probably wouldn't understand the medical details anyway), but they did. And they're all similar to COVID-19 in terms of being coronaviruses. So again, if you want to be fearful then be my guest. But I prefer to look for facts, and be overly cautious, not fearful, in cases like this. --- End quote --- Remember that COVID-19 is actually SARS-CoV-2. It is closely related to SARS and possibly a mutation of it. --- End quote --- No - no chance of it being a close/recent mutation - too many differences. The closest is Bat Cronavirus. You can check this yourself. Hop on to https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MN908947 Select a random line of the genome: In this case I randomly picked "taagtacaag tattttagtg gagcaatgga tacaactagc tacagagaag ctgcttgttg" The use the "Run BLAST" link on the top right. Paste the sequence in the "search" window, and see what matches. For that sequence, 2019-nCoV is all of the "111" scores - a 100% match The next highest (106 - a 98.3% match) is "Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 isolate 2019-nCoV/USA-CA9/2020, complete genome" and then "Bat coronavirus RaTG13, complete genome". The original SARS is nowhere to be seen, because no significant match is found. |
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