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Covid 19 virus
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iMo:
It has to flatten out soon because of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic games (July 24th)..
engrguy42:

--- Quote from: thinkfat on March 20, 2020, 01:11:04 pm ---
--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 20, 2020, 12:32:04 pm ---Zero999: "That's a huge increase. Imagine if the death rate increased at that rate for the next 10 days. We're dealing with exponentials and numbers get big, very quickly."

That's the point. You can imagine anything you want. You're assuming we're dealing with exponentials in every case, and that today's results predict the future. Today China reported its second day with no new cases. That's not exponential. The country where it started is reporting no new cases. Now you're free to dismiss China's numbers as propaganda, and you may be right. But then why would they report so many cases prior to this, or even mention it at all?

The WHO reports that the Western Pacific region has been declining in cases since early February.

And if you consider that most countries have locked everything down recently, at some point it seems reasonable to expect that to have a positive impact.

Or, as some seem to want to believe, the world is ending tomorrow. Take your pick.

--- End quote ---

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

See the graph for total fatalities. Nice exponential growth. Do you expect this curve to just flatten out over night?

--- End quote ---

Just keep in mind that it's pretty much guaranteed that the total number of deaths in the US will increase in the near term (I'm guessing on the order of weeks). So any graph of total deaths will show a constantly increasing curve. And you can always say "OMG, it's getting worse !!!". 

But IMO what's more important is whether there is a slowing trend, which means the rate of new deaths is trending lower. That's what happened with SARS. The isolation measures worked, and it died out. But assuming exponential for the future IMPLIES that everyone will get it very soon and we'll all die.

I don't think that's rational. It might end up that we all die, but I think there's a reasonable case to be made, based on the results of SARS and MERS, etc., that these protective measures might end up working.

Or, we'll all die tomorrow.   
paulca:

--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 20, 2020, 01:31:15 pm ---Just keep in mind that it's pretty much guaranteed that the total number of deaths in the US will increase in the near term (I'm guessing on the order of weeks). So any graph of total deaths will show a constantly increasing curve. And you can always say "OMG, it's getting worse !!!". 

--- End quote ---

With the average estimate incubation period being 5 days and the average time between symptoms to death being 15 days.  The deaths data you see today has approximately a 20 day lag time compared with infections.  So it's not unreasonable to transpolate it back/forward 20 days.

And... if it stays exponential and does not reach an inflection point in under 2 weeks what will the daily death rate be then?
engrguy42:

--- Quote from: paulca on March 20, 2020, 01:35:19 pm ---
--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 20, 2020, 01:31:15 pm ---Just keep in mind that it's pretty much guaranteed that the total number of deaths in the US will increase in the near term (I'm guessing on the order of weeks). So any graph of total deaths will show a constantly increasing curve. And you can always say "OMG, it's getting worse !!!". 

--- End quote ---

With the average estimate incubation period being 5 days and the average time between symptoms to death being 15 days.  The deaths data you see today has approximately a 20 day lag time compared with infections.  So it's not unreasonable to transpolate it back/forward 20 days.

And... if it stays exponential and does not reach an inflection point in under 2 weeks what will the daily death rate be then?

--- End quote ---

Again, you can assume and hypotheticalize (I just made that word up) anything you want. Maybe it's not exponential to the second power, maybe it's exponential to the 10th power and everyone will get it by 8pm tonight.

At this point it comes down to what you want to believe. Some people seem to enjoy excitement in any form, even if it's fear. Which is why horror movies are so popular.

Me, not so much. I like facts, not fear.
paulca:

--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 20, 2020, 01:42:44 pm ---Me, not so much. I like facts, not fear.

--- End quote ---

The two are not mutually exclusive.  Both are up to you.  Making predictions on data based on previous trends is how the real world works and no not all extrapolations will turn out to match, but they are often close enough to matter.

I also think that people SHOULD be a little afraid.  Not paniced or insane, but afraid enough to listen to people telling them how to protect themselves, their families and their community.

If it turns out we over reacted, things will bounce back again.

So a few airlines go under, but when it all ends people will need airlines and new ones will be born, jobs will be created.  Life will go on.  As long as we can support those in trouble during the worst of it we will all be fine.
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