General > General Technical Chat

Covid 19 virus

<< < (164/381) > >>

mzzj:

--- Quote from: Nominal Animal on March 20, 2020, 03:41:10 pm --- The decision to stop testing except for health personnel and politically privileged individuals in Helsinki-Uusimaa region was certainly just to control the appearance of the severity of the situation; purely political.


--- End quote ---
IMO the decision to limit testing to severely ill and healthcare personnel was right at the moment. Besides in here they are testing at about rate of 1200 tests per day. We are still miles ahead of US considering total population.
Do you have any idea how many Finns currently have coronavirus-like symptoms from the dozen of other viruses in the circulation?

Testing 5% or 20% people with symptoms doesn't make difference other than feeding social porn need of people and press. Strategy in here is same as rest of the european countries: slow the process and infect nearly everyone eventually.

Cerebus:

--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 20, 2020, 02:09:56 pm ---In fact I thought that in Europe many businesses shut down for a month or so every year as standard practice for some holiday or something? Or maybe I'm mis-remembering.

--- End quote ---

Not so much nowadays, but it was commonplace when we had heavy industries with continuous production processes that needed to stop to provide time for maintenance. For example, the annual "potter's holiday" where the whole of Stoke-on-Trent went on holiday - they had to let kilns completely cool down before they could go in and do repair work.

Nominal Animal:

--- Quote from: mzzj on March 20, 2020, 04:15:50 pm ---IMO the decision to limit testing to severely ill and healthcare personnel was right at the moment. Besides in here they are testing at about rate of 1200 tests per day. We are still miles ahead of US considering total population.
Do you have any idea how many Finns currently have coronavirus-like symptoms from the dozen of other viruses in the circulation?
--- End quote ---
Do you realize that Juha Sarkio (director-general of the public governance department of the Finnish ministry of finance) would not have been able to get tested, if he was just an ordinary citizen?  His exposure was under the THL requirements for getting tested; the only reason he got tested was his connections.


--- Quote from: mzzj on March 20, 2020, 04:15:50 pm ---Testing 5% or 20% people with symptoms doesn't make difference other than feeding social porn need of people and press.
--- End quote ---
What you call "social porn" is what I call "understanding the severity of the situation".  Because the numbers are kept artificially low (just look at the nice, linear curve for the last six days at korona.kans.io), people are not taking things seriously.

Because of this, I predict Helsinki-Uusimaa will have a sudden step in the number of dead, as the virus takes its course.  (I would have given some kind of an estimate on the timeframe, but I cannot find any statistics on the duration from infection till death.  The early stages of the spread in Helsinki-Uusimaa region, till March 14, are well known; but after that, the numbers are pure fiction.  If I knew the detailed statistics from elsewhere, a numerical simulation based on the initial onset statistics, would show pretty well what will happen here.  I do believe you too will then say "but nobody could predict this", even when these predictions have been offered for months now.  That also happened with Nokia, btw.  I'm sure you disagree there too.  Feel free; I am only offering my observations here.)

I'm not angry or wish to antagonize you in any way, mzzj, but I do believe Finnish media suffers from the same affliction you do: you think that by keeping information from people, you are somehow helping them.  I simply disagree, based on past experience.

Mr. Scram:

--- Quote from: Stray Electron on March 19, 2020, 09:01:37 pm ---   Come back in six months and then you can tell if the fear was irrational or not.  I'm pretty certain that you have never been through an empidemic and have no idea what it's like. I've been through one it's not something that should ever be treated lightly.

--- End quote ---
That's not what he said. People need to stop interpreting the refusal to get caught up in the panic and fear as treating things lightly. Fear is useless. Preparation is not. The best thing to do is stay calm, take sensible precautions and monitor the situation. Endlessly repeating it's going to be horrible is useless and counter productive. Many people are going to die. We know this. Get ready.

Mr. Scram:

--- Quote from: not1xor1 on March 19, 2020, 09:43:35 pm ---NO - you wrote:

--- Quote ---    It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked.
--- End quote ---

and I replied:

--- Quote ---even lots of young and fit people would die without intensive care and expensive machinery to help them breath (and some is diying notwithstanding that)
--- End quote ---

there is no reference to a proportion, no percentage
healthy and fit people are dying now
without ICU would die even more
THIS IS NOT FLUE

it is completely false that they are
--- Quote ---almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness
--- End quote ---

I showed that even some kids did need ICU in China
I never said a huge proportion of kids
it is you who used the term "almost exclusively"

--- End quote ---
You wrote "lots of young and fit people would die without intensive care and expensive machinery to help them breath" which simply isn't true. Some do, but those seem to be unfortunate exceptions.

Navigation

[0] Message Index

[#] Next page

[*] Previous page

There was an error while thanking
Thanking...
Go to full version
Powered by SMFPacks Advanced Attachments Uploader Mod